Adnan Hussain

Test of Okun’s Law in Some Asian Countries Co-Integration Approach

The objective of this paper is to estimate the Okun’s coefficient, and to check the validity of Okun’s law in some Asian countries, whether it is valid or not, for this purpose we have used the time series annual data during the period 1980-2006. Engle Granger (1987) co integration technique is employed to find out long run association between variables and error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. After getting empirical evidences it can be said that Okun’s law interpretation may not be applicable and also the principle of NAIRU does not hold its validity in some Asian developing countries. Our results have also supported to Noble Prize awarded Austrian economist Paul Krugman.

Impact of Macroeconomics Variables on Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence in Case of KSE

The purpose behind this study is to explore the correlation among the macroeconomics variables and share prices of KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange) in context of Pakistan. The study considers several quarterly data for different macroeconomics variables are as foreign exchange reserve, foreign exchange rate, industrial production index (IPI), whole sale price index (WPI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and broad money M2. These variables are obtained from the period 1986-2008. The result shows that after the reforms in 1991 the influence of foreign exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve significantly affect the stock prices, while other variables like IPI and GFCF are insignificantly affect stock prices. The result also highlighted the internal factors of firm like increase in production and capital formation insignificant while external factor like M2 and foreign exchange affect positively. The study will be very helpful for national policy makers, researchers and corporate managers.

Financial Market Integration in Pakistan

This research evaluates the issue of financial integration with reference to financial market of Pakistan; subsequent to liberalization (1991) capital flows rapidly growing due to openness reforms. This openness reforms specifically increased capital flow in short run in domestic market. It is imperative to explore causes pertaining to this issue to obtain positive impact with growing sustainable financial markets. For this purpose, monthly data of Karachi interbank offer rate (KIBOR), 3 months treasury bills rate, Pakistani rupee/US dollar exchange rate, stock prices (Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index) and the London Interbank offer rate (LIBOR) were used. Applying Johnson co integration technique, it is found that there is a long run correlation among local foreign exchange market and LIBOR but this relationship is not robust due to high control of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Securities market is still found at the developing stage and not fully integrated with international financial market. It is suggested that further steps and initiatives be taken to increase international financial integration in securities market. This may be very helpful to reduce arbitrage and speculation in financial market in Pakistan.

Effects of Financial Structure and Financial Development on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan

The object behind this study is to explore the long run association between economic growth and financial structure in Pakistan context. For this purpose we have used the data from the period of 1975 to 2008, and applied Johansen cointegration technique to find out the long run association among the selected variables. Weighted sum of structure activity and structure size of the financial sector is used as a proxy of financial structure. The study finds that the proxy of financial structure is positively correlated with economic growth. The result also pointed out that the channel of transmission mechanism of financial development to growth is efficient to the financial sector not the volume of investment.

Determinant of Return on Assets and Equity and Industry Wise Effects: Evidence from KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange)

The prime purpose of this research is to find out that from the components of Dupont identity of Return on Equity which component is most consistent or volatile among profit margin, total assets turnover and equity multiplier in Fuel and Energy Sector, Chemicals Sector, Cement Sector, Engineering Sector, Textiles Sector and Transport and Communication Sector of KSE 100 index. The purpose of the study was served by taking data from 2004 to 2009 of 51 companies (falling under six mentioned industries) of KSE 100 as Paradigm of Panel Data. The F-Statistics of One Way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) show that it is Assets Turnover which significantly varies from industry to industry whereas Equity Multiplier and Profit Margin are not much volatile among indifferent industries. Moreover, Adjusted R Square in Panel OLS Analysis was confirming Industry Effect on Newly established firms that they can have the benefit of profitability if they are from Fuel and Energy Sector, Cement Sector and Transport and Communication Sector whereas others Sectors such as Chemicals Sector, Engineering Sectors and Textiles Sectors does not have that leverage.