Muhammad Mubin

Operational Risk Management in Corporate and Banking Sector of Pakistan

This paper is to examine the current status of operational risk management in Pakistan concerning corporate and banking sector and explore the reasons for the adoption or lack of adoption of integrated approach to operational risk management. It identifies the imperatives for implementation of comprehensive risk management solutions leading to enterprise risk management (ERM). The mode of research is qualitative. The paper shows that effective risk management can enhance organizational performance but appropriate infrastructure is not available in companies. This paper highlights the fact that knowledge of risk management in corporate sectors of Pakistan is insufficient and sample companies hesitate to respond thinking that it may reflect inefficiencies and in banking sectors the concept of operational risk management can be seen up to some extent.

Macroeconomics Relations between Exchange Rate Instability, Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and Economic Growth Variables: The Case of Pakistan

This paper aims to determine whether Exchange Rate instability of Pakistan, affects it’s imports , Exports, Trade Balances, Foreign Exchange Reserves and GDP of Pakistan or not, and if so then in what direction. We have used pooled data from 1952 to 2010 (on annual basis), indirect exchange rate quotations (Dollars per Rupee) are used. We have estimated our equation by running each variable at lag 3, Estimated equation of explanatory variables (Exchange Rate, imports, Exports, Foreign Reserves) for explained variable (GDP) exhibits a significant relationship, which is highly sensitive. A change 1 basis point in exchange rate can result in thousand of USD change in GDP. The depreciation of exchange rate has a positive impact on the exports, but sudden and abrupt fluctuation in exchange rates can disturb economic growth. We have used: Correlation Removal methods, Multi-collinerity Detection and Removal Tests, Stability Test, Granger Causality Test, Auto correlation Detection and Removal Tests, in-order to make our model and it’s variable, a “good predictor” for determining the Trade Balances of Pakistan, significant enough, for future predictions about GDP.

Determinant of Return on Assets and Equity and Industry Wise Effects: Evidence from KSE (Karachi Stock Exchange)

The prime purpose of this research is to find out that from the components of Dupont identity of Return on Equity which component is most consistent or volatile among profit margin, total assets turnover and equity multiplier in Fuel and Energy Sector, Chemicals Sector, Cement Sector, Engineering Sector, Textiles Sector and Transport and Communication Sector of KSE 100 index. The purpose of the study was served by taking data from 2004 to 2009 of 51 companies (falling under six mentioned industries) of KSE 100 as Paradigm of Panel Data. The F-Statistics of One Way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) show that it is Assets Turnover which significantly varies from industry to industry whereas Equity Multiplier and Profit Margin are not much volatile among indifferent industries. Moreover, Adjusted R Square in Panel OLS Analysis was confirming Industry Effect on Newly established firms that they can have the benefit of profitability if they are from Fuel and Energy Sector, Cement Sector and Transport and Communication Sector whereas others Sectors such as Chemicals Sector, Engineering Sectors and Textiles Sectors does not have that leverage.

Economic Forces and Stock Markets Under Arbitrage Price Theory: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Our aim is to identify common risk factors among some pre-determined macroeconomic variables in a way that whether they are presented significant risk premiums in pricing equation that was given above. First we identified number of potential factors explaining returns in Turkish markets as suggested by Ross (1980) when presented APT. We found two factors were significantly explaining returns and then to find out which factor they are. we have used methodology of Chen, Roll, Ross (1986) where we have ranked portfolios according to size (market capitalization) and portfolio returns are calculated as log-returns. Our main results have showed that stock returns are exposed to systematic economic news that they are priced in accordance with their exposures. Those variables in our study are MP, DEI, BIST 100, BIST 30 and CG that must be given importance for considering their impact on stock returns.