Adriaan Kalwij

The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe

This article analyzes the impact on fertility of changes in national expenditure for family allowances, maternity- and parental-leave benefits, and childcare subsidies. To do so, I estimate a model for the timing of births using individual-level data from 16 western European countries, supplemented with data on national social expenditure for different family policy programs. The latter allow approximation of the subsidies that households with children receive from such programs. The results show that increased expenditure on family policy programs that help women to combine family and employment-and thus reduce the opportunity cost of children—generates positive fertility responses.

Measuring retirement savings adequacy : developing a multi-pillar approach in the Netherlands

The Dutch pension system is highly ranked on adequacy. These rankings, however, are based on fictitious replacement rates for median income earners. This paper investigates whether the Dutch pension adequacy is still high when we take into account the resources that people really accumulate, using a large administrative data set. A comprehensive approach is followed: not only public and private pension rights, but also private savings and housing wealth are taken into account. Summed over all age- and socioeconomic groups we find a median gross replacement rate of 83% and a net replacement rate of 101%. At retirement age, 31% of all households face a gross replacement rate that is lower than 70% of current income. Public and occupational pensions each account for more than 35% of total pension annuities. Private non-housing assets account for 14% and imputed rental income from net housing wealth accounts for about 10%. Some vulnerable groups, such as the self-employed, have below average replacement rates. Results are fairly similar to results found in the UK, indicating that we should be careful in evaluating the adequacy of pensions systems on the basis of fictitious replacement rates.

Estimating the economic return to schooling on the basis of panel data

This paper is concerned with estimating the economic return to schooling of men in the Netherlands. An IV approach is adopted to estimate a panel data model with random individual effects. The fact that older individuals have relatively less schooling than younger individuals is exploited to construct instruments, and GNP per worker at the time an individual turned 16 is included to control for birth-cohort effects. The estimated return to schooling is about 15%. Ignoring the endogeneity of schooling results in a lower return to schooling. Ignoring birth-cohort effects results in a lower return to work experience.

Caste Dominance and Economic Performance in Rural India

Using household panel data for rural India covering 1993–94 and 2004–5, we test whether scheduled castes (SCs) and other minority groups perform better or worse in terms of income when resident in villages dominated by (i) upper castes or (ii) their own group. Theoretically, upper-caste dominance comprises a potential “proximity gain” and offsetting group-specific “oppression” effects. For SCs and other backward classes (OBCs), initial proximity gains dominate negative oppression effects because upper-caste-dominated villages are located in more productive areas: once agroecology is controlled for, proximity and oppression effects cancel each other out. Although the effects are theoretically ambiguous, we find large, positive own-dominance or enclave effects for upper castes, OBCs, and especially SCs. These village regime effects are restricted to the Hindu social groups. Combining pathway and income source analysis, we close in on the mechanisms underpinning identity-based income disparities; while education matters, landownership accounts for most enclave effects. A strong postreform SC own-village advantage turns out to have agricultural rather than nonfarm or business origins. We also find upper-caste dominance to inhibit the educational progress of other social groups, along with negative enclave effects on the educational progress of Muslim women and scheduled tribe men.

Changes in the Income Distribution of the Dutch Elderly between 1989 and 2020: A Dynamic Microsimulation

This paper analyzes the income distribution of the Dutch elderly using a microsimulation model. Microsimulation models allow for detailed estimates of the income distribution. Our model deviates from traditional models by explicitly considering the persistency and heteroskedasticity of real income shocks. In this way, modeling all underlying processes influencing household income becomes less necessary, which can improve the trade‐off between refinement and tractability of microsimulation models. We show the results of three model specifications with different levels of refinement. The results are in line and indicate that between 2008 and 2020, the highest predicted annual growth among the elderly is for median‐income households (about 1.2 percent). High‐income households have a somewhat lower predicted growth (about 1.0 percent) and low‐income households only have a predicted annual growth of 0.5 percent. Inequality therefore seems to increase in the lower part of the distribution, while it will probably decline in the upper part of the distribution.

Individuals' Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality

Using a combination of Dutch survey and administrative data, we show that survival expectations do in fact predict actual mortality in models that control for income and education level. This predictive power disappears, however, when controls are introduced for self-rated health status and smoking behavior. Concerning the differences between survival expectations and actual mortality, our results show that, on average, women underestimate their remaining life duration more than men and that the age gradient is steeper in subjective than in actual mortality. The association of current health status with subjective survival is less strong than with objective survival and, moreover, individuals underestimate the risks from smoking, alcohol consumption, and obesity.

Globalization and Poverty Trends across Regions: The Role of Variation in the Income and Inequality Elasticities of Poverty

The call for the eradication of poverty is stronger now than ever before. The World Bank and IMF, the UN and in particular UNDP, all development banks and nearly all multilateral and bilateral aid agencies profess themselves to be concerned principally with reducing the number and proportion of people who live in conditions of absolute poverty. However, in the case of some of the organizations mentioned, the professed concern with poverty reduction has not made much difference to their policy recommendations. Despite poverty reduction being the central objective, the principal focus of the policies that are pursued in the name of poverty reduction is on promoting economic growth. Poverty reduction is more popular than ever, but so is economic growth, with the difference that growth is no longer seen as an end in itself but as a means to an end, expressed succinctly in the title of Dollar and Kraay (2002), ‘Growth Is Good for the Poor’.

The effects of changes in household demographics and employment on consumer demand patterns

This study examines to what extent changes in consumer demand patterns over the last two decades in the Netherlands can be attributed to changes in household demographics, employment and total expenditures. The dominating changes in consumer demand are decreasing budget shares of food & beverages and clothing & footwear and increasing budget shares of housing and services. The changes in households’ composition – away from the traditional one-earner family with children – together with the increase in household total expenditures account for about one-third of the decrease in the budget share of food & beverages, half of the increase in the budget shares of services and only a minor part of the increase in housing. Once controlled for budget effects, the quadrupling of the proportion of employed women with young children accounts for about one-third of the increase in the budget shares of personal & health care – including childcare – and food away, holidays & entertainment.

How Good is Growth for the Poor? The Role of the Initial Income Distribution in Regional Diversity in Poverty Trends

Using panel data of 58 developing countries for the period 1980-1998, this study shows that the responsiveness of the

Home Care for the Elderly: Family, Friends, and the State

2 a day poverty headcount measure to changes in mean income and inequality significantly decreases with initial inequality and the ratio poverty line over mean income - taken as proxies for the initial density of income near the poverty line.Variations in these proxies account for the large crossregional differences in the income elasticity of poverty during the 1980s and 1990s.We find that the income elasticity of poverty in the mid 1990s equals -1.31 on average and ranges from -0.71 for Sub-Saharan Africa to -2.27 for the Middle East and North Africa, and that the Gini elasticity of poverty equals 0.80 on average and ranges from 0.01 in South Asia to 1.73 in Latin America.While variation in income growth accounts for most of the variation in poverty reduction across regions, the impact of variations in inequality and in elasticities of poverty is almost always too large to be ignored, and in particular in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.