Jim Been

Measuring retirement savings adequacy : developing a multi-pillar approach in the Netherlands

The Dutch pension system is highly ranked on adequacy. These rankings, however, are based on fictitious replacement rates for median income earners. This paper investigates whether the Dutch pension adequacy is still high when we take into account the resources that people really accumulate, using a large administrative data set. A comprehensive approach is followed: not only public and private pension rights, but also private savings and housing wealth are taken into account. Summed over all age- and socioeconomic groups we find a median gross replacement rate of 83% and a net replacement rate of 101%. At retirement age, 31% of all households face a gross replacement rate that is lower than 70% of current income. Public and occupational pensions each account for more than 35% of total pension annuities. Private non-housing assets account for 14% and imputed rental income from net housing wealth accounts for about 10%. Some vulnerable groups, such as the self-employed, have below average replacement rates. Results are fairly similar to results found in the UK, indicating that we should be careful in evaluating the adequacy of pensions systems on the basis of fictitious replacement rates.

Pension Reform and Income Inequality Among the Elderly in 15 European Countries

The ageing of populations and hampering economic growth increase pressure on public fi-nances in many advanced capitalist societies. Consequently, governments have adopted pen-sion reforms in order to relieve pressure on public finances. These reforms have contributed to a relative shift from public to private pension schemes. Since private social security plans are generally less redistributive than public social security, it can be hypothesized that the privatization of pension plans has led to higher levels of income inequality among the elderly. Existing empirical literature has mainly focused on cross-country comparisons at one moment in time or on time-series for a single country. This study contributes to the income inequality and pension literature by empirically analysing the distributional effects of shifts from public to private pension provision in 15 European countries for the period 1995-2007, using pooled time series cross-section regression analyses. Remarkably, we do not find empirical evidence that shifts from public to private pension provision lead to higher levels of income inequality or poverty among elderly people. The results appear to be robust for a wide range of econometric specifications.

Early Retirement Across Europe. Does Non-Standard Employment Increase Participation of Older Workers?

In many European countries, the labor market participation of older workers is considerably lower than the labor market participation of prime-age workers. This study analyzes the variation in labor market withdrawal of older workers across 13 European countries over the period 1995-2008. We seek to contribute to existing macro-econometric studies by taking non-standard employment into account, by relating the empirical model more explicitly to optional value model theory on retirement decisions and by using a two-step IV-GMM estimator to deal with endogeneity issues. The analysis leads to the conclusion that part-time employment is negatively related to labor market withdrawal of older men. This relationship is less strong among women. Additionally, we find that part-time employment at older ages does not decrease the average actual hours worked. Furthermore, the results show a positive relationship between unemployment among older workers and early retirement similar to previous studies.

Public/Private Pension Mix, Income Inequality and Poverty among the Elderly in Europe: An Empirical Analysis Using New and Revised OECD Data

Prior studies have suggested that higher public pensions are associated with lower income inequality among the elderly, whereas the reverse is true for private pensions. Van Vliet et al. (2012) empirically test whether relative shifts from public to private pension schemes entail higher levels of income inequality among the elderly using panel data from the OECD SOCX and the EU-SILC databases. Contrasting earlier empirical studies using either cross-sectional or time-series data, they do not find evidence that shifts from public to private pension provision are associated with higher levels of income inequality or poverty among elderly. The aim of the current paper is to extend the analysis of Van Vliet et al. by 1) adding additional countries, 2) adding additionally available years, and 3) using revised OECD SOCX data. In contrast to Van Vliet et al., we find that a greater relative importance of private pensions is associated with higher levels of income inequality and poverty among elderly. A central explanation of the difference in conclusions stems from revision of OECD SOCX data.

Early Retirement across Europe. Does Non-Standard Employment Increase Participation of Older Workers?: Early Retirement across Europe. Does Non-Standard Employment Increase Participation of Older Workers?

In many European countries, the labor market participation of older workers is considerably lower than the labor market participation of prime‐age workers. This study examines the variation in labor market withdrawal of older workers across 13 European countries over the period 1995‐2008. We seek to contribute to the international comparative macro literature by analyzing the effects of non‐standard employment. Accounting for a number of labor market institutions, the empirical analysis leads to the conclusion that part‐time employment—and in particular voluntary part‐time employment—is negatively related to labor market withdrawal of older men. As such, the results indicate that part‐time employment functions as ‘bridge employment’ between full‐time employment and retirement. Additionally, we find that part‐time employment at older ages does not decrease the average actual hours worked. Taken together, our results show that in countries with a high prevalence of part‐time employment among older workers, the labor supply of older workers is higher both at the extensive and the intensive margin.

Job-Search Requirements for Unemployed at the End of Working Life: Effects on Unemployment Dynamics and Self-Employment Probabilities

This paper investigates the extent to which job search requirements in unemployment insurance (U.I.) increase the probability of self-employment as a retirement route. For causal identification, we apply a difference-in-differences approach, using a Dutch 2004 policy reform that introduced job-search requirements in U.I. for persons aged 57.5 and older. Unemployment dynamics and self-employment probabilities are studied using a dynamic multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity. The results suggest that job-search requirements stimulated people to exit unemployment and discouraged older workers to enter unemployment. The probability of self-employment as an exit route to retirement increased relative to U.I., but not relative to paid employment.

The Necessity of Self-Employment Towards Retirement: Evidence from Labor Market Dynamics and Search Requirements for Unemployment Benefits

This paper investigates whether individuals at the end of working life choose self-employment out of necessity and to what degree job search requirements for unemployment benefits induce people to become self-employed. For this purpose we analyze labor market transitions for people between the ages of 50 and 63 using a dynamic multinomial logit model with unobserved heterogeneity.The results indicate that at the end of the career individuals with a weak labor market position have a relatively high probability to become self-employed, e.g. to end or avoid a period of unemployment or inactivity (necessity driven self-employment). Contrasting some earlier work, the results do not suggest that self-employment is used as a gradual retirement route for employees. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that job search requirements among unemployed older workers increased the outflow from unemployment and decreased the inflow into unemployment, but did not increase self-employment out of necessity or opportunity.

Responses of Time-use to Shocks in Wealth during the Great Recession

Shocks to income and wealth decrease the household’s monetary budget available. As a consequence, households respond by decreasing consumption spending. Income shocks, such as unexpected unemployment and retirement, also increase the time-budget available in addition to decreasing the monetary budget available. Some research has suggested that the additional time available enables households to substitute home production for purchased goods and services, effectively increasing their well-being beyond what a measure of spending would indicate. We aim to expand on this research by using data on time-use with data on categories of spending, which has the potential to be much more informative than data on time-use alone: the combination can show substitutions or complements of time for spending. We use wealth shocks in house values induced by the Great Recession to show the extent to which households adjusted home production in response to those wealth shocks. We found some adjustment in the population age 65 or older, but none in the population age 51-64. This implies that younger households experiencing a wealth shock only find very little opportunity, if any, to buffer the welfare losses resulting from reductions in spending on market-purchased goods by increases in home production. Older households were able to compensate modestly.