Adrian C. Darnell

Repeat visits to attractions: a preliminary economic analysis

This paper examines the way in which repeat visiting to an attraction may affect the visit flow to that attraction over time. The importance of repeat visiting in tourism and its significance in terms of both international tourism flows and of demand for individual tourist attractions is discussed. It is shown that there are important variations over time, and across attraction and visitor types, in the extent of repeat visiting. An analytical framework is provided and the ways in which the pattern of repeat visiting can affect the total visitor flow through time is discussed via a simple 50-period simulation exercise. Some of the implications of the simulation for attraction managements are also considered. The paper concludes by discussing what a more comprehensive approach to the determinants of repeat visiting might look like. It also suggests some avenues for future work.

The influence of exchange rate variability on UK exports

This paper examines the influence of exchange rate variability on UK exports in the period of ‘floating’ sterling 1973Q2-1990Q3. Using the most recently developed bounds tests (appropriate when the cointegrating vector incorporates both I(1) or I(0) variables) the long-run demand for UK exports invariant to exchange rate variability is found.

Some Simple Analytics of Access and Revenue Targets

If a museum faces a price inelastic demand and twin targets of a minimum number of visits and a minimum revenue, those targets need not be compatible. This paper explores the implications of such targets and shows that their compatibility depends critically on the admission price-elasticity. If the targets are incompatible it may be possible to engineer compatibility by shifting the demand curve. However, if the demand shift (eg resulting from advertising or improving the quality of the visitor experience) requires resourcing and is to be self-financing, it may or may not be possible to bring about compatibility.

THE HISTORY OF ECONOMETRICS

The History of Econometrics is a two volume collection of major papers which have shaped the development of this subject. Part I includes articles which together provide an overview of the history of econometrics, part II addresses the relationship between econometrics and statistics, the articles in part III constitute early applied studies and part IV includes articles concerned with the role and method of econometrics.

The demand for local authority museums: Management issues and hard evidence

Local authority museums have experienced a rapidly changing competitive environment. Shifts in cultural policy at national and local level have led to more emphasis on plural funding, customer orientation and management for efficiency and effectiveness. This paper shows how knowledge of visitor demand can be of value in facing this challenge. The estimated demand equation is shown to yield useful information and insights on some key management issues, most notably the relationship between pricing policy and the achievement of objectives relating to visitor numbers and to revenue.

Beamish museum - modelling visitor flows.

Abstract An econometric model of visitor flows to a single tourist attraction — Beamish Museum — has been developed by Adrian Darnell, Peter Johnson and Barry Thomas of the University of Durham, UK. The study complements the work on aggregate studies of tourism demand. The single equation model is subject to various limitations, which are discussed, but it nevertheless provides some robust results which are of interest both as a test of economic theory and as a potentially useful management tool.

The Limits to Econometrics.

This ambitious book focuses on the underlying methodological issues rather than concentrating upon econometric techniques. The limits of econometric investigations are identified through a critical appraisal of three different approaches associated with the work of Professors Hendry, Leamer and Sims. After explaining why the early optimism in econometrics was misplaced, it argues that rejection is not an appropriate response. It offers a rich spectrum of approaches to a problem of central importance in the development of modern economics.

The Life and Economic Thought of Harold Hotelling

Harold Hotelling was one of the most important of the twentieth-century pioneers of mathematical economics and mathematical statistics.1 In both fields he is recognised for his powerful theoretical contributions2 and he was a most effective and caring teacher. His influence, both as an economist and as a statistician, is felt not only through his publications (a large number of which are seminal3), but also through his students, amongst whom one can count many of the leading economists and statisticians of the next generation.4

A Dictionary of Econometrics

This important new dictionary – the first of its kind, now available in paperback - presents an accessible source of reference on the main concepts and techniques in econometrics. Featuring entries on all the major areas in theoretical econometrics, the dictionary will be used by students, both undergraduate and post graduate, to aid their understanding of the subject. Sorted by alphabetical order, each entry is a short essay which is designed to present the essential points of a particular concept or technique and offer a concise guide to other relevant literature.