Adrian P. Mander

Primary care referral to a commercial provider for weight loss treatment versus standard care: a randomised controlled trial

Summary Background The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity needs effective approaches for weight loss in primary care and community settings. We compared weight loss with standard treatment in primary care with that achieved after referral by the primary care team to a commercial provider in the community. Methods In this parallel group, non-blinded, randomised controlled trial, 772 overweight and obese adults were recruited by primary care practices in Australia, Germany, and the UK. Participants were randomly assigned with a computer-generated simple randomisation sequence to receive either 12 months of standard care as defined by national treatment guidelines, or 12 months of free membership to a commercial programme (Weight Watchers), and followed up for 12 months. The primary outcome was weight change over 12 months. Analysis was by intention to treat (last observation carried forward [LOCF] and baseline observation carried forward [BOCF]) and in the population who completed the 12-month assessment. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN85485463. Findings 377 participants were assigned to the commercial programme, of whom 230 (61%) completed the 12-month assessment; and 395 were assigned to standard care, of whom 214 (54%) completed the 12-month assessment. In all analyses, participants in the commercial programme group lost twice as much weight as did those in the standard care group. Mean weight change at 12 months was −5·06 kg (SE 0·31) for those in the commercial programme versus −2·25 kg (0·21) for those receiving standard care (adjusted difference −2·77 kg, 95% CI −3·50 to −2·03) with LOCF; −4·06 kg (0·31) versus −1·77 kg (0·19; adjusted difference −2·29 kg, −2·99 to −1·58) with BOCF; and −6·65 kg (0·43) versus −3·26 kg (0·33; adjusted difference −3·16 kg, −4·23 to −2·11) for those who completed the 12-month assessment. Participants reported no adverse events related to trial participation. Interpretation Referral by a primary health-care professional to a commercial weight loss programme that provides regular weighing, advice about diet and physical activity, motivation, and group support can offer a clinically useful early intervention for weight management in overweight and obese people that can be delivered at large scale. Funding Weight Watchers International, through a grant to the UK Medical Research Council.

Incorporation of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids into lipid pools when given as supplements providing doses equivalent to typical intakes of oily fish

Background: Estimation of the intake of oily fish at a population level is difficult. The measurement of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in biological samples may provide a useful biomarker of intake. Objective: We identified the most appropriate biomarkers for the assessment of habitual oily fish intake and changes in intake by elucidating the dose- and time-dependent response of EPA and DHA incorporation into various biological samples that represent roles in fatty acid transport, function, and storage. Design: This was a double-blind, randomized, controlled intervention trial in 204 men and women that lasted 12 mo. EPA and DHA capsules were provided in a manner to reflect sporadic consumption of oily fish (ie, 1, 2, or 4 times/wk). EPA and DHA were assessed at 9 time points over 12 mo in 9 sample types (red blood cells, mononuclear cells, platelets, buccal cells, adipose tissue, plasma phosphatidylcholine, triglycerides, cholesteryl esters, and nonesterified fatty acids). Results: A dose response (P < 0.05) was observed for EPA and DHA in all pools except for red blood cell EPA (P = 0.057). EPA and DHA measures in plasma phosphatidylcholine and platelets were best for the discrimination between different intakes (P < 0.0001). The rate of incorporation varied between sample types, with the time to maximal incorporation ranging from days (plasma phosphatidylcholine) to months (mononuclear cells) to >12 mo (adipose tissue). Conclusions: Plasma phosphatidylcholine EPA plus DHA was identified as the most suitable biomarker of acute changes in EPA and DHA intake, and platelet and mononuclear cell EPA plus DHA were the most suitable biomarkers of habitual intake. This trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials (www.controlled-trials.com) as ISRCTN48398526.

A prospective analysis of dietary energy density at age 5 and 7 years and fatness at 9 years among UK children

Objective:To analyse whether high dietary energy density (DED) is associated with increased fat mass and risk of excess adiposity in free-living children.Design:Longitudinal, observational cohort study.Subjects:Six hundred and eighty-two healthy children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.Measurements:Diet was assessed at age 5 and 7 years using 3-day diet diaries, and DED (kJ g−1) was calculated excluding drinks. Fat mass was estimated at age 9 years using Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry. To adjust for body size, fat mass index (FMI) was calculated by dividing fat mass (kg) by height (m5.8). Excess adiposity was defined as the top quintile of logFMI.Results:Mean DED at age 5 years was higher among children with excess adiposity at age 9 years compared to the remaining sample (8.8±0.16 vs 8.5±0.07 kJ g−1), but there was no evidence of an association with excess adiposity at age 9 years (odds ratio (OR)=1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90–1.44) after controlling for potential confounders. Mean DED at age 7 years was higher among children with excess adiposity compared to the remaining sample (9.1±0.12 vs 8.8±0.06 kJ g−1) and a 1 kJ g−1 rise in DED increased the odds of excess adiposity at 9 years by 36% (OR=1.36, 95% CI 1.09–1.69) after controlling for potential confounders.Conclusion:Higher DED at age 7 years, but not age 5 years, is a risk factor for excess adiposity at age 9 years, perhaps reflecting deterioration in the ability to compensate for extra calories in an energy-dense diet. DED tracks strongly from age 5 to 7 years suggesting intervention to alter dietary habits need to commence at younger ages to prevent the formation of preferences for energy dense foods.

A proposed method of bias adjustment for meta-analyses of published observational studies

Objective Interpretation of meta-analyses of published observational studies is problematic because of numerous sources of bias. We develop bias assessment, elicitation and adjustment methods, and apply them to a systematic review of longitudinal observational studies of the relationship between objectively measured physical activity and subsequent change in adiposity in children. Methods We separated internal biases that reflect study quality from external biases that reflect generalizability to a target setting. Since published results were presented in different formats, these were all converted to correlation coefficients. Biases were considered as additive or proportional on the correlation scale. Opinions about the extent of each bias in each study, together with its uncertainty, were elicited in a formal process from quantitatively trained assessors for the internal biases and subject-matter specialists for the external biases. Bias-adjusted results for each study were combined across assessors using median pooling, and results combined across studies by random-effects meta-analysis. Results Before adjusting for bias, the pooled correlation is difficult to interpret because the studies varied substantially in quality and design, and there was considerable heterogeneity. After adjusting for both the internal and external biases, the pooled correlation provides a meaningful quantitative summary of all available evidence, and the confidence interval incorporates the elicited uncertainties about the extent of the biases. In the adjusted meta-analysis, there was no apparent heterogeneity. Conclusion This approach provides a viable method of bias adjustment for meta-analyses of observational studies, allowing the quantitative synthesis of evidence from otherwise incompatible studies. From the meta-analysis of longitudinal observational studies, we conclude that there is no evidence that physical activity is associated with gain in body fat.

How Much Human Milk Do Infants Consume? Data from 12 Countries Using a Standardized Stable Isotope Methodology

The WHO has developed new growth curves based on breast-fed infants. Recommendations for energy intake have been adopted based on measurements of total energy expenditure. Data on human milk (HM) intake are needed to estimate the energy intake from this food source. However, objective HM data from around the world have not been available, because these measurements are difficult to obtain. Stable isotope methods have been developed to provide objective measurements over a 14-d period. A pooled analysis of 1115 data points of HM intake, obtained using the dose to the mother deuterium oxide turnover method, was undertaken in infants aged 0-24 mo from 12 countries across 5 continents. A hierarchical model was needed to estimate mean HM intake and its variance within and between countries given the complexity of the data. The overall mean HM intake was 0.78 (95% CI = 0.72, 0.84) kg/d, and the age-specific estimates indicated that intake increased over the first 3-4 mo and remained above 0.80 kg/d until 6-7 mo. The variability of intake increased in late infancy. Boys consumed 0.05 kg/d more than girls (P < 0.01). HM intake was strongly, inversely associated with non-HM water intake [r = -0.448 (95% CI -0.511 to -0.385); P < 0.0001]. These objective isotope values of HM intake improve our understanding of the magnitude and variability of HM intake within and across populations and help to estimate nutrient intakes in breast-fed infants.

Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Fat Mass in Children: A Bias-Adjusted Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Background Studies investigating the prevention of weight gain differ considerably in design and quality, which impedes pooling them in conventional meta-analyses, the basis for evidence-based policy making. This study is aimed at quantifying the prospective association between measured physical activity and fat mass in children, using a meta-analysis method that allows inclusion of heterogeneous studies by adjusting for differences through eliciting and incorporating expert opinion. Methods Studies on prevention of weight gain using objectively measured exposure and outcome were eligible; they were adopted from a recently published systematic review. Differences in study quality and design were considered as internal and external biases and captured in checklists. Study results were converted to correlation coefficients and biases were considered either additive or proportional on this scale. The extent and uncertainty of biases in each study were elicited in a formal process by six quantitatively-trained assessors and five subject-matter specialists. Biases for each study were combined across assessors using median pooling. Results were combined across studies by random-effects meta-analysis. Results The combined correlation of the unadjusted results from the six studies was −0.04 (95%CI: −0.22, 0.14) with considerable heterogeneity (I2 = 78%), which makes it difficult to interpret the result. After bias-adjustment the pooled correlation was −0.01 (95%CI: −0.18, 0.16) with apparent study compatibility (I2 = 0%). Conclusion By using this method the prospective association between physical activity and fat mass could be quantitatively synthesized; the result suggests no association. Objectively measured physical activity may not be the key determinant of unhealthy weight gain in children.

Regulatory T Cell Responses in Participants with Type 1 Diabetes after a Single Dose of Interleukin-2: A Non-Randomised, Open Label, Adaptive Dose-Finding Trial

Background Interleukin-2 (IL-2) has an essential role in the expansion and function of CD4+ regulatory T cells (Tregs). Tregs reduce tissue damage by limiting the immune response following infection and regulate autoreactive CD4+ effector T cells (Teffs) to prevent autoimmune diseases, such as type 1 diabetes (T1D). Genetic susceptibility to T1D causes alterations in the IL-2 pathway, a finding that supports Tregs as a cellular therapeutic target. Aldesleukin (Proleukin; recombinant human IL-2), which is administered at high doses to activate the immune system in cancer immunotherapy, is now being repositioned to treat inflammatory and autoimmune disorders at lower doses by targeting Tregs. Methods and Findings To define the aldesleukin dose response for Tregs and to find doses that increase Tregs physiologically for treatment of T1D, a statistical and systematic approach was taken by analysing the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of single doses of subcutaneous aldesleukin in the Adaptive Study of IL-2 Dose on Regulatory T Cells in Type 1 Diabetes (DILT1D), a single centre, non-randomised, open label, adaptive dose-finding trial with 40 adult participants with recently diagnosed T1D. The primary endpoint was the maximum percentage increase in Tregs (defined as CD3+CD4+CD25highCD127low) from the baseline frequency in each participant measured over the 7 d following treatment. There was an initial learning phase with five pairs of participants, each pair receiving one of five pre-assigned single doses from 0.04 × 106 to 1.5 × 106 IU/m2, in order to model the dose-response curve. Results from each participant were then incorporated into interim statistical modelling to target the two doses most likely to induce 10% and 20% increases in Treg frequencies. Primary analysis of the evaluable population (n = 39) found that the optimal doses of aldesleukin to induce 10% and 20% increases in Tregs were 0.101 × 106 IU/m2 (standard error [SE] = 0.078, 95% CI = −0.052, 0.254) and 0.497 × 106 IU/m2 (SE = 0.092, 95% CI = 0.316, 0.678), respectively. On analysis of secondary outcomes, using a highly sensitive IL-2 assay, the observed plasma concentrations of the drug at 90 min exceeded the hypothetical Treg-specific therapeutic window determined in vitro (0.015–0.24 IU/ml), even at the lowest doses (0.040 × 106 and 0.045 × 106 IU/m2) administered. A rapid decrease in Treg frequency in the circulation was observed at 90 min and at day 1, which was dose dependent (mean decrease 11.6%, SE = 2.3%, range 10.0%–48.2%, n = 37), rebounding at day 2 and increasing to frequencies above baseline over 7 d. Teffs, natural killer cells, and eosinophils also responded, with their frequencies rapidly and dose-dependently decreased in the blood, then returning to, or exceeding, pretreatment levels. Furthermore, there was a dose-dependent down modulation of one of the two signalling subunits of the IL-2 receptor, the β chain (CD122) (mean decrease = 58.0%, SE = 2.8%, range 9.8%–85.5%, n = 33), on Tregs and a reduction in their sensitivity to aldesleukin at 90 min and day 1 and 2 post-treatment. Due to blood volume requirements as well as ethical and practical considerations, the study was limited to adults and to analysis of peripheral blood only. Conclusions The DILT1D trial results, most notably the early altered trafficking and desensitisation of Tregs induced by a single ultra-low dose of aldesleukin that resolves within 2–3 d, inform the design of the next trial to determine a repeat dosing regimen aimed at establishing a steady-state Treg frequency increase of 20%–50%, with the eventual goal of preventing T1D. Trial Registration ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN27852285; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01827735

Moderate ingestion of alcohol is associated with acute ethanol-induced suppression of circulating CTX in a PTH-independent fashion.

The “J shape” curve linking the risk of poor bone health to alcohol intake is now well recognized from epidemiological studies. Ethanol and nonethanol components of alcoholic beverages could influence bone remodeling. However, in the absence of a solid underlying mechanism, the positive association between moderate alcoholic intake and BMD remains questionable because of confounding associated social factors. The objective of this work was to characterize the short‐term effects of moderate alcohol consumption on circulating bone markers, especially those involved in bone resorption. Two sequential blood‐sampling studies were undertaken in fasted healthy volunteers (age, 20–47 yr) over a 6‐h period using beer of different alcohol levels (<0.05–4.6%), solutions of ethanol or orthosilicic acid (two major components of beer), and water ± calcium chloride (positive and negative controls, respectively). Study 1 (24 subjects) assessed the effects of the different solutions, whereas study 2 (26 subjects) focused on ethanol/beer dose. Using all data in a “mixed effect model,” we identified the contributions of the individual components of beer, namely ethanol, energy, low‐dose calcium, and high‐dose orthosilicic acid, on acute bone resorption. Markers of bone formation were unchanged throughout the study for all solutions investigated. In contrast, the bone resorption marker, serum carboxy terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX), was significantly reduced after ingestion of a 0.6 liters of ethanol solution (>2% ethanol; p ≤ 0.01, RM‐ANOVA), 0.6 liters of beer (<0.05–4.6% ethanol; p < 0.02), or a solution of calcium (180 mg calcium; p < 0.001), but only after calcium ingestion was the reduction in CTX preceded by a significant fall in serum PTH (p < 0.001). Orthosilicic acid had no acute effect. Similar reductions in CTX, from baseline, were measured in urine after ingestion of the test solutions; however, the biological variability in urine CTX was greater compared with serum CTX. Modeling indicated that the major, acute suppressive effects of moderate beer ingestion (0.6 liters) on CTX were caused by energy intake in the early phase (∼0–3 h) and a “nonenergy” ethanol component in the later phase (∼3 to >6 h). The early effect on bone resorption is well described after the intake of energy, mediated by glucagon‐like peptide‐2, but the late effect of moderate alcohol ingestion is novel, seems to be ethanol specific, and is mediated in a non–calcitonin‐ and a non–PTH‐dependent fashion, thus providing a mechanism for the positive association between moderate alcohol ingestion and BMD.

Rationale and study design of the Adaptive study of IL-2 dose on regulatory T cells in type 1 diabetes (DILT1D): a non-randomised, open label, adaptive dose finding trial

Introduction CD4 T regulatory cells (Tregs) are crucial for the maintenance of self-tolerance and are deficient in many common autoimmune diseases such as type 1 diabetes (T1D). Interleukin 2 (IL-2) plays a major role in the activation and function of Tregs and treatment with ultra-low dose (ULD) IL-2 could increase Treg function to potentially halt disease progression in T1D. However, prior to embarking on large phase II/III clinical trials it is critical to develop new strategies for determining the mechanism of action of ULD IL-2 in participants with T1D. In this mechanistic study we will combine a novel trial design with a clinical grade Treg assay to identify the best doses of ULD IL-2 to induce targeted increases in Tregs. Method and analysis Adaptive study of IL-2 dose on regulatory T cells in type 1 diabetes (DILT1D) is a single centre non-randomised, single dose, open label, adaptive dose-finding trial. The primary objective of DILT1D is to identify the best doses of IL-2 to achieve a minimal or maximal Treg increase in participants with T1D (N=40). The design has an initial learning phase where pairs of participants are assigned to five preassigned doses followed by an interim analysis to determine the two Treg targets for the reminder of the trial. This will then be followed by an adaptive phase which is fully sequential with an interim analysis after each participant is observed to determine the choice of dose based on the optimality criterion to minimise the determinant of covariance of the estimated target doses. A dose determining committee will review all data available at the interim(s) and then provide decisions regarding the choice of dose to administer to subsequent participants. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for the study was granted on 18 February 2013. Results The results of this study will be reported through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and an internal organisational report. Trial registration numbers NCT01827735, ISRCTN27852285, DRN767.

The challenge of a 2-year follow-up after intervention for weight loss in primary care

Background:Many weight loss programmes show short-term success, but long-term data in larger studies are scarce, especially in community settings. Attrition is common and complicates the interpretation of long-term outcomes.Objective:To investigate 2-year outcomes and explore issues of attrition and missing data.Subjects:A total of 772 overweight and obese adults recruited by primary care practices in Australia, Germany and the UK and randomised to a 12-month weight loss intervention delivered in a commercial programme (CP) or in standard care (SC).Measurement:Weight change from 0–24 and 12–24 months including measured weights only and measured and self-reported weights, using last observation carried forward (LOCF), baseline observation carried forward (BOCF), completers-only and missing-at-random (MAR) analyses.Results:A total of 203 participants completed the 24-month visit. Using measured weights only, there was a trend for greater 24-month weight loss in CP than in SC, but the difference was only statistically significant in the LOCF and BOCF analyses: LOCF: −4.14 vs −1.99 kg, difference adjusted for centre −2.08 kg, P<0.001; BOCF: −1.33 vs −0.74 kg, adjusted difference −0.60 kg, P=0.032; completers: −4.76 vs −2.99 kg, adjusted difference −1.53 kg, P=0.113; missing at random: −3.00 vs −1.94 kg, adjusted difference −1.04 kg, P=0.150. Both groups gained weight from 12–24 months and weight regain was significantly (P<0.001) greater for CP than for SC in all analysis approaches. Inclusion of self-reported weights from a further 138 participants did not change the interpretation of the findings.Conclusion:Initial weight loss was poorly maintained during the no-intervention follow-up, but both groups did have lower weight over the 24 months. Attrition was high in both groups, and assumptions about missing data had considerable impact on the magnitude and statistical significance of treatment effects. It is vital that trials on weight loss interventions consider the plausibility of these differences in an analytical approach when interpreting research findings and comparing data between studies.