Stephen J. Sharp

Effect of early intensive multifactorial therapy on 5-year cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes detected by screening (ADDITION-Europe): a cluster-randomised trial

Summary Background Intensive treatment of multiple cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes. We investigated the effect of early multifactorial treatment after diagnosis by screening. Methods In a pragmatic, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial done in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, 343 general practices were randomly assigned screening of registered patients aged 40–69 years without known diabetes followed by routine care of diabetes or screening followed by intensive treatment of multiple risk factors. The primary endpoint was first cardiovascular event, including cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, revascularisation, and non-traumatic amputation within 5 years. Patients and staff assessing outcomes were unaware of the practices study group assignment. Analysis was done by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00237549. Findings Primary endpoint data were available for 3055 (99·9%) of 3057 screen-detected patients. The mean age was 60·3 (SD 6·9) years and the mean duration of follow-up was 5·3 (SD 1·6) years. Improvements in cardiovascular risk factors (HbA1c and cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure) were slightly but significantly better in the intensive treatment group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event was 7·2% (13·5 per 1000 person-years) in the intensive treatment group and 8·5% (15·9 per 1000 person-years) in the routine care group (hazard ratio 0·83, 95% CI 0·65–1·05), and of all-cause mortality 6·2% (11·6 per 1000 person-years) and 6·7% (12·5 per 1000 person-years; 0·91, 0·69–1·21), respectively. Interpretation An intervention to promote early intensive management of patients with type 2 diabetes was associated with a small, non-significant reduction in the incidence of cardiovascular events and death. Funding National Health Service Denmark, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Danish Research Foundation for General Practice, Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Danish National Board of Health, Danish Medical Research Council, Aarhus University Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK National Health Service R&D, UK National Institute for Health Research, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, Utrecht, Novo Nordisk, Astra, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Servier, HemoCue, Merck.

Early Age at Menarche Associated with Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

CONTEXT The relationship between age at menarche and cardiovascular disease remains unclear. Two recent studies found an inverse association between age at menarche and all-cause mortality. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between age at menarche and cardiovascular disease risk factors, events, and mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based prospective study involving 15,807 women, aged 40-79 yr in 1993-1997 and followed up to March 2007 for cardiovascular disease events (median follow-up 10.6 yr) and February 2008 for mortality (median follow-up 12.0 yr) was used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Odds ratios for cardiovascular disease risk factors and hazard ratios for incident cardiovascular disease and mortality were calculated. RESULTS There were 3888 incident cardiovascular disease events (1323 coronary heart disease, 602 stroke, and 1963 other) and 1903 deaths (640 cardiovascular disease, 782 cancer, and 481 other) during follow-up. Compared with other women, those who had early menarche (<12 yr) had higher risks of hypertension [1.13 (1.02-1.24)], incident cardiovascular disease [1.17 (1.07-1.27)], incident coronary heart disease [1.23 (1.06-1.43)], all-cause mortality [1.22 (1.07-1.39)], cardiovascular disease mortality [1.28 (1.02-1.62)], and cancer mortality [1.25 (1.03-1.51)], adjusted for age, physical activity, smoking, alcohol, educational level, occupational social class, oral contraceptive use, hormone replacement therapy, parity, body mass index, and waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS Early age at menarche (before age 12 yr) was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and overall mortality in women, and this association appeared to be only partly mediated by increased adiposity.

Prediction of childhood obesity by infancy weight gain: an individual-level meta-analysis.

To assess the predictive ability of infant weight gain on subsequent obesity we performed a meta-analysis of individual-level data on 47,661 participants from 10 cohort studies from the UK, France, Finland, Sweden, the US and Seychelles. For each individual, weight SD scores at birth and age 1 year were calculated using the same external reference (British 1990). Childhood obesity was defined by International Obesity Task Force criteria. Each +1 unit increase in weight SD scores between 0 and 1 year conferred a twofold higher risk of childhood obesity (odds ratio = 1.97 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.83, 2.12]), and a 23% higher risk of adult obesity (odds ratio = 1.23 [1.16, 1.30]), adjusted for sex, age and birthweight. There was little heterogeneity between studies. A risk score for childhood obesity comprising weight gain 0-1 year, mothers body mass index, birthweight and sex was generated in a random 50% selection of individuals from general population cohorts with available information (n = 8236); this score showed moderate predictive ability in the remaining 50% sample (area under receiving operating curve = 77% [95% CI 74, 80%]). A separate risk score for childhood overweight showed similar predictive ability (area under receiving operating curve = 76% [73, 79%]). In conclusion, infant weight gain showed a consistent positive association with subsequent obesity. A risk score combining birthweight and infant weight gain (or simply infant weight), together with mothers body mass index and sex may allow early stratification of infants at risk of childhood obesity.

Television viewing time independently predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: the EPIC Norfolk Study

BACKGROUND Television viewing (TV), a highly prevalent behaviour, is associated with higher cardiovascular risk independently of physical activity. The relationship with mortality, however, is relatively unknown. METHODS We examined the prospective relationship between TV time and all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality in a population-based cohort [The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), Norfolk] of 13 197 men and women {age [SD (standard deviation)]: 61.5 ± 9.0 years}. Participants were free from stroke, myocardial infarction and cancer at baseline in 1998-2000 and were followed up for death ascertainment until 2009 (9.5 ± 1.6 years). TV time, total physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE), education level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, anti-hypertensive and lipid-lowering medication use, participant and family history of disease and total energy intake were self-reported; height and weight were measured by standardized procedures. Hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for mortality were estimated per 1-h/day increase in TV. RESULTS Each 1-h/day increase in TV time was associated with increased hazard of all-cause (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.09; 1270 deaths) and cardiovascular (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.15; 373 deaths), but not cancer mortality (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.98-1.10; 570 deaths). This was independent of gender, age, education, smoking, alcohol, medication, diabetes history, family history of cardiovascular disease and cancer, body mass index (BMI) and PAEE. They were similar when stratified by gender, age, education, BMI and PAEE. The population-attributable fraction for all-cause mortality comparing the highest TV tertile (>3.6 h/day) with the lowest (<2.5 h/day) was 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that public health recommendations should consider advising a reduction in TV time, a predominant leisure activity in modern society, in addition to advocating physical activity.

Differences in the prospective association between individual plasma phospholipid saturated fatty acids and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

Summary Background Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and type 2 diabetes. In this longitudinal case-cohort study, we aimed to investigate the prospective associations between objectively measured individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and incident type 2 diabetes in EPIC-InterAct participants. Methods The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study includes 12 403 people with incident type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort of 16 154 individuals who were selected from a cohort of 340 234 European participants with 3·99 million person-years of follow-up (the EPIC study). Incident type 2 diabetes was ascertained until Dec 31, 2007, by a review of several sources of evidence. Gas chromatography was used to measure the distribution of fatty acids in plasma phospholipids (mol%); samples from people with type 2 diabetes and subcohort participants were processed in a random order by centre, and laboratory staff were masked to participant characteristics. We estimated country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for associations per SD of each SFA with incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression, which is weighted for case-cohort sampling, and pooled our findings using random-effects meta-analysis. Findings SFAs accounted for 46% of total plasma phospholipid fatty acids. In adjusted analyses, different individual SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposing directions. Even-chain SFAs that were measured (14:0 [myristic acid], 16:0 [palmitic acid], and 18:0 [stearic acid]) were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per SD difference: myristic acid 1·15 [95% CI 1·09–1·22], palmitic acid 1·26 [1·15–1·37], and stearic acid 1·06 [1·00–1·13]). By contrast, measured odd-chain SFAs (15:0 [pentadecanoic acid] and 17:0 [heptadecanoic acid]) were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD difference: 0·79 [0·73–0·85] for pentadecanoic acid and 0·67 [0·63–0·71] for heptadecanoic acid), as were measured longer-chain SFAs (20:0 [arachidic acid], 22:0 [behenic acid], 23:0 [tricosanoic acid], and 24:0 [lignoceric acid]), with HRs ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 (95% CIs ranging between 0·61 and 0·92). Our findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Interpretation Different individual plasma phospholipid SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposite directions, which suggests that SFAs are not homogeneous in their effects. Our findings emphasise the importance of the recognition of subtypes of these fatty acids. An improved understanding of differences in sources of individual SFAs from dietary intake versus endogenous metabolism is needed. Funding EU FP6 programme, Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Medical Research Council Human Nutrition Research, and Cambridge Lipidomics Biomarker Research Initiative.

Correlation of the leptin:adiponectin ratio with measures of insulin resistance in non-diabetic individuals

Aims/hypothesisObesity is the dominant cause of insulin resistance. In adult humans it is characterised by a combination of adipocyte hypertrophy and, to a lesser extent, adipocyte hyperplasia. As hypertrophic adipocytes secrete more leptin and less adiponectin, the plasma leptin:adiponectin ratio (LAR) has been proposed as a potentially useful measure of insulin resistance and vascular risk. We sought to assess the usefulness of the LAR as a measure of insulin resistance in non-diabetic white adults.MethodsLeptin and adiponectin levels were measured in 2,097 non-diabetic individuals from the Ely and European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance (EGIR) Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Risk (RISC) study cohorts. LAR was compared with fasting insulin and HOMA-derived insulin sensitivity (HOMA-S) in all individuals and with the insulin sensitivity index (M/I) from hyperinsulinaemic–euglycaemic clamp studies in 1,226 EGIR RISC participants.ResultsThe LAR was highly correlated with HOMA-S in men (r = −0.58, p = 4.5 × 10−33 and r = −0.65, p = 1.1 × 10−66 within the Ely and EGIR RISC study cohorts, respectively) and in women (r = −0.51, p = 2.8 × 10−36 and r = −0.61, p = 2.5 × 10−73). The LAR was also strongly correlated with the clamp M/I value (r = −0.52, p = 4.5 × 10−38 and r = −0.47, p = 6.6 × 10−40 in men and women, respectively), similar to correlations between HOMA-S and the M/I value.Conclusions/interpretationThe leptin:adiponectin ratio is a useful measure of insulin resistance in non-diabetic white adults. These data highlight the central role of adipocyte dysfunction in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance. Given that variations between fasting and postprandial leptin and adiponectin levels tend to be small, the leptin to adiponectin ratio might also have potential value in assessing insulin sensitivity in the non-fasted state.

Variability in the Heritability of Body Mass Index: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression

Evidence for a major role of genetic factors in the determination of body mass index (BMI) comes from studies of related individuals. Despite consistent evidence for a heritable component of BMI, estimates of BMI heritability vary widely between studies and the reasons for this remain unclear. While some variation is natural due to differences between populations and settings, study design factors may also explain some of the heterogeneity. We performed a systematic review that identified 88 independent estimates of BMI heritability from twin studies (total 140,525 twins) and 27 estimates from family studies (42,968 family members). BMI heritability estimates from twin studies ranged from 0.47 to 0.90 (5th/50th/95th centiles: 0.58/0.75/0.87) and were generally higher than those from family studies (range: 0.24–0.81; 5th/50th/95th centiles: 0.25/0.46/0.68). Meta-regression of the results from twin studies showed that BMI heritability estimates were 0.07 (P = 0.001) higher in children than in adults; estimates increased with mean age among childhood studies (+0.012/year, P = 0.002), but decreased with mean age in adult studies (−0.002/year, P = 0.002). Heritability estimates derived from AE twin models (which assume no contribution of shared environment) were 0.12 higher than those from ACE models (P < 0.001), whilst lower estimates were associated with self reported versus DNA-based determination of zygosity (−0.04, P = 0.02), and with self reported versus measured BMI (−0.05, P = 0.03). Although the observed differences in heritability according to aspects of study design are relatively small, together, the above factors explained 47% of the heterogeneity in estimates of BMI heritability from twin studies. In summary, while some variation in BMI heritability is expected due to population-level differences, study design factors explained nearly half the heterogeneity reported in twin studies. The genetic contribution to BMI appears to vary with age and may have a greater influence during childhood than adult life.

Physical activity and all-cause mortality across levels of overall and abdominal adiposity in European men and women: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC)

Background: The higher risk of death resulting from excess adiposity may be attenuated by physical activity (PA). However, the theoretical number of deaths reduced by eliminating physical inactivity compared with overall and abdominal obesity remains unclear. Objective: We examined whether overall and abdominal adiposity modified the association between PA and all-cause mortality and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the years of life gained for these exposures. Design: This was a cohort study in 334,161 European men and women. The mean follow-up time was 12.4 y, corresponding to 4,154,915 person-years. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in the clinic. PA was assessed with a validated self-report instrument. The combined associations between PA, BMI, and WC with mortality were examined with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by center and age group, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, and alcohol intake. Center-specific PAF associated with inactivity, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) (>30), and WC (≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm for women) were calculated and combined in random-effects meta-analysis. Life-tables analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy for the exposures. Results: Significant interactions (PA × BMI and PA × WC) were observed, so HRs were estimated within BMI and WC strata. The hazards of all-cause mortality were reduced by 16–30% in moderately inactive individuals compared with those categorized as inactive in different strata of BMI and WC. Avoiding all inactivity would theoretically reduce all-cause mortality by 7.35% (95% CI: 5.88%, 8.83%). Corresponding estimates for avoiding obesity (BMI >30) were 3.66% (95% CI: 2.30%, 5.01%). The estimates for avoiding high WC were similar to those for physical inactivity. Conclusion: The greatest reductions in mortality risk were observed between the 2 lowest activity groups across levels of general and abdominal adiposity, which suggests that efforts to encourage even small increases in activity in inactive individuals may be beneficial to public health.

Screening for type 2 diabetes and population mortality over 10 years (ADDITION-Cambridge): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Summary Background The increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes poses a major public health challenge. Population-based screening and early treatment for type 2 diabetes could reduce this growing burden. However, uncertainty persists around the benefits of screening for type 2 diabetes. We assessed the effect of a population-based stepwise screening programme on mortality. Methods In a pragmatic parallel group, cluster-randomised trial, 33 general practices in eastern England were randomly assigned by the method of minimisation in an unbalanced design to: screening followed by intensive multifactorial treatment for people diagnosed with diabetes (n=15); screening plus routine care of diabetes according to national guidelines (n=13); and a no-screening control group (n=5). The study population consisted of 20 184 individuals aged 40–69 years (mean 58 years), at high risk of prevalent undiagnosed diabetes, on the basis of a previously validated risk score. In screening practices, individuals were invited to a stepwise programme including random capillary blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) tests, a fasting capillary blood glucose test, and a confirmatory oral glucose tolerance test. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. All participants were flagged for mortality surveillance by the England and Wales Office of National Statistics. Analysis was by intention-to-screen and compared all-cause mortality rates between screening and control groups. This study is registered, number ISRCTN86769081. Findings Of 16 047 high-risk individuals in screening practices, 15 089 (94%) were invited for screening during 2001–06, 11 737 (73%) attended, and 466 (3%) were diagnosed with diabetes. 4137 control individuals were followed up. During 184 057 person-years of follow up (median duration 9·6 years [IQR 8·9–9·9]), there were 1532 deaths in the screening practices and 377 in control practices (mortality hazard ratio [HR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·90–1·25). We noted no significant reduction in cardiovascular (HR 1·02, 95% CI 0·75–1·38), cancer (1·08, 0·90–1·30), or diabetes-related mortality (1·26, 0·75–2·10) associated with invitation to screening. Interpretation In this large UK sample, screening for type 2 diabetes in patients at increased risk was not associated with a reduction in all-cause, cardiovascular, or diabetes-related mortality within 10 years. The benefits of screening might be smaller than expected and restricted to individuals with detectable disease. Funding Wellcome Trust; UK Medical Research Council; National Health Service research and development support; UK National Institute for Health Research; University of Aarhus, Denmark; Bio-Rad.

Fatty acids measured in plasma and erythrocyte-membrane phospholipids and derived by food-frequency questionnaire and the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes: a pilot study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–Norfolk cohort

BACKGROUND Epidemiologic evidence for the association between types of fatty acid and risk of type 2 diabetes is inconsistent. This may in part be due to the limitations of fatty acid measurement methods. OBJECTIVE The objective was to use 3 different measures of fatty acid to estimate the prospective association between fatty acid composition and development of incident diabetes. DESIGN We analyzed 199 cases of clinically incident diabetes and 184 noncases aged 40-79 y at baseline in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition)-Norfolk study. Fatty acids were derived from a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and measured in plasma phospholipid (P-FA) and erythrocyte-membrane phospholipid (Ery-FA) fractions by gas chromatography. RESULTS There were stronger associations with diabetes risk with the use of objectively measured fatty acids (P-FA and Ery-FA) than with the FFQ in analyses adjusted for age, sex, and potential confounders. Positive associations with diabetes were greater in magnitude with the use of P-FA than with Ery-FA (highest:lowest tertiles): for example, the palmitic acid odds ratios (ORs) were 2.47 (95% CI: 1.37, 4.46) and 1.96 (95% CI: 1.10, 3.49), respectively. Inverse associations with diabetes were also stronger with the use of P-FA than with Ery-FA: for example, the OR for linoleic acid was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.28, 0.91) compared with 0.77 (95% CI: 0.43, 1.37), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The objective measurement of fatty acids with the use of either P-FA or Ery-FA identifies important associations with diabetes incidence that may be missed when assessed by FFQ. Fatty acids measured in P-FA appear to be more strongly associated with diabetes incidence. These findings endorse the use of objective measurement of fatty acids for nutritional-epidemiologic studies, and the apparently stronger findings for the plasma fraction should be confirmed in larger studies and in different populations.