Adrienne Tivy
University of Calgary
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Publication
Featured researches published by Adrienne Tivy.
Weather and Forecasting | 2007
Adrienne Tivy; Bea Alt; Stephen E. L. Howell; Katherine Wilson; John J. Yackel
Abstract Despite recent reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and the associated increase in both the recreational and commercial use of ice-infested waters, long-range prediction of operationally relevant sea ice parameters is an area of seasonal forecasting that has received little attention. Statistical methods that isolate and exploit empirical relationships between antecedent low-frequency climate variability and specific variables of interest are often used to solve seasonal forecasting problems. In this study, simple multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques are used to improve the skill of the seasonal (3-month lead) forecast of the breakup and clearing of sea ice along the shipping route through Hudson Bay that is issued each March by the Canadian Ice Service of Environment Canada. Using sea ice and climate data from 1972 to 2002, predictive MLR models are developed for the spring opening date of the shipping route and the latest expected opening date. A success rate of 77% over the 1972–2002 per...
Journal of Climate | 2011
Adrienne Tivy; Stephen E. L. Howell; Bea Alt; John J. Yackel; Thomas Carrieres
Abstract Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to estimate the levels and sources of seasonal forecast skill for July ice concentration in Hudson Bay over the 1971–2005 period. July is an important transition month in the seasonal cycle of sea ice in Hudson Bay because it is the month when the sea ice clears enough to allow the first passage of ships to the Port of Churchill. Sea surface temperature (quasi global, North Atlantic, and North Pacific), Northern Hemisphere 500-mb geopotential height (z500), sea level pressure (SLP), and regional surface air temperature (SAT) are tested as predictors at 3-, 6-, and 9-month lead times. The model with the highest skill has three predictors—fall North Atlantic SST, fall z500, and fall SAT—and significant tercile forecast skill covering 61% of the Hudson Bay region. The highest skill for a single-predictor model is from fall North Atlantic SST (6-month lead). Fall SST explains 69% of the variance in July ice concentration in Hudson Bay and a possible atmosp...
Journal of Geophysical Research | 2011
Adrienne Tivy; Stephen E. L. Howell; Bea Alt; Steve McCourt; Richard Chagnon; Greg Crocker; Tom Carrieres; John J. Yackel
Arctic | 2009
Emma J. Stewart; S.E.L. Howell; Dianne Draper; John J. Yackel; Adrienne Tivy
Journal of Geophysical Research | 2008
Stephen E. L. Howell; Adrienne Tivy; John J. Yackel; Brent Else; Claude R. Duguay
Journal of Geophysical Research | 2006
Stephen E. L. Howell; Adrienne Tivy; John J. Yackel; Randall K. Scharien
Arctic | 2010
Emma J. Stewart; Adrienne Tivy; S.E.L. Howell; Jackie Dawson; Dianne Draper
Atmosphere-ocean | 2008
Stephen E. L. Howell; Adrienne Tivy; John J. Yackel; Steve McCourt
Archive | 2010
S.E.L. Howell; Adrienne Tivy; Bea Alt; Steve McCourt; Rachel Chagnon; Greg Crocker; Tom Carrieres; John J. Yackel
Archive | 2017
Tom Carrieres; Alain Caya; Pam Posey; E. Joseph Metzger; Laurent Bertino; Arne Melsom; Greg Smith; Michael Sigmond; Viatcheslav Kharin; Adrienne Tivy