Jackie Dawson

The carbon cost of polar bear viewing tourism in Churchill, Canada

This paper examines the paradoxical issues surrounding long-distance tourism to view polar bears, a form of tourism which is disproportionately (on a per capita basis) responsible for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions that are negatively affecting survival chances of the species. It also notes that the phenomenon of “last chance tourism” is influencing more tourists to visit the region. The paper describes and explains the evidence that climate change is causing a substantial reduction in sea ice, vital for Arctic wildlife species survival, particularly mega fauna, such as polar bears. Churchill, Canada is one of the few places where tourists can easily view polar bears. A total of 334 on-site tourist surveys and 18 in-depth interviews were conducted to help evaluate tourist perceptions of climate change and to estimate their GHG emissions related to polar bear viewing tourism. Polar bear viewing tourists perceive climate change to be negatively impacting polar bears but do not necessarily understand how they themselves contribute to GHG emissions, or understand offsetting possibilities. The polar bear viewing industry is estimated to contribute 20,892 t/CO2 per season. Mitigation strategies, including reduction and offsetting programs are outlined.

Last-chance tourism: the boom, doom, and gloom of visiting vanishing destinations

Popular press and industry stakeholders are reporting a travel trend whereby tourists increasingly seek to experience the worlds most endangered sites before they vanish or are irrevocably transformed. Termed ‘last-chance’ or ‘doom’ tourism in the popular media, the desire for tourists to witness vanishing landscapes or seascapes and disappearing species may have important consequences for tourism management, yet the nature of these consequences is poorly understood by the academic community. This paper describes how last-chance tourism is promoted in various tourism marketing strategies, especially in the Arctic. The analysis is supported through a literature review of web-based information and an analysis of three different studies conducted in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada – the self-declared polar bear capital of the world. The authors also examine more closely the concepts of dark and last-chance tourism, and elaborate on the possible connections between the two. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of this type of tourism and identifies potential risks and opportunities.

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.

Behavioral Adaptation of Alpine Skiers to Climate Change: Examining Activity Involvement and Place Loyalty

ABSTRACT This study employed a visitor survey to analyze the influence that changing climatic conditions have on the substitution behaviors of alpine skiers (activity, spatial, temporal). It further focuses on the role that activity involvement plays in influencing behavioral adaptations (i.e., substitution) and also the extent to which place loyalty is affected. The Modified Involvement Scale (MIS) was used to segment respondents based on high, medium, and low levels of leisure involvement with activity. Highly involved skiers were more likely to change their skiing behavior as a result of poor snow conditions than were less involved individuals. Pritchards Psychological Commitment Index (PCI) provided evidence that less involved skiers exhibit lower levels of commitment to particular service providers than do highly involved individuals.

Climate change vulnerability of the Vermont ski tourism industry (USA).

Abstract Climate change represents one of the most significant challenges to humanity in the 21st century and is anticipated to have major consequences for the climate‐sensitive winter sports tourism sector. This study examined the vulnerability of Vermonts (US A) 18 ski areas. Under the six climate change scenarios examined, shortened ski seasons and increased snowmaking requirements were projected at all ski areas. Using two broad economic risk criteria (100‐day ski season, probability of being operational for the Christmas/New Year holiday period), only the two low‐elevation ski areas (Cochran and Suicide Six) were considered highly vulnerable to climate change. Consequently, it is not the entire Vermont ski tourism industry that is at risk to climate change but rather the individual low lying ski areas. The economic implications remain uncertain, but a possible outcome of a contraction of ski areas in the region is increased market share among the remaining ski areas.

Advancing Polar Prediction Capabilities on Daily to Seasonal Time Scales

AbstractThe polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fueled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with fewer in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the p...

Systems analysis of climate change vulnerability for the US Northeast ski sector.

One of the greatest challenges to the sustainability of the winter tourism sector is climate change. Studies examining the implications of climate change for the ski tourism industry have mainly focused on vulnerability of the supply side (i.e. ski area infrastructure and operators) with limited attention given to the demand side (i.e. how tourists will respond to changing climate and ski conditions). A more holistic understanding of how the winter tourism marketplace may evolve under a changed climate is required for managers and communities to develop and plan specific adaptation strategies. Using a systems approach this study examines climate change vulnerability of both the supply and demand sides of the US Northeast ski tourism sector (i.e. a marketplace of some 103 ski areas across the states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut). Multiple methods were employed including a climate change analogue (demand and supply side), future climate change and operations modeling (supply side), and a skier survey (demand side). Findings reveal a complexity of interacting and opposing impacts including the projected contraction northward of viable ski areas. In response to projected ski area closures in the region, demand for skiing opportunities is not likely to decrease proportionally. Ski areas that are able to remain operational under changed conditions should plan for a possible market-shift (i.e. spatial substitution) and may expect crowding issues and residual development pressure in association with the concentration of ski areas in fewer climate-advantaged regions.

Skier demand and behavioural adaptation to climate change in the US Northeast

Ski tourism has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Supply-side studies project shortened season length and increased snowmaking requirements, which may jeopardize revenues and increase operational costs. Demand-side impacts have received surprisingly little attention considering tourists can easily adapt their behaviour to climate variability by altering their destination (spatial substitution), frequency of participation (temporal substitution) and by changing leisure activities altogether (activity substitution). This study used a survey (n = 1167) to examine demand-side adaptation of skiers in the US Northeast to past climate conditions and hypothetical future scenarios. Findings suggest that demand is not likely to decrease proportionate to the projected decrease in supply, and future changes in participation may be similar to that seen during marginal snow seasons in the recent past. Thus, a geographical market shift (i.e. greater market share for the ski areas that remain operational) is anticipated under future climate change conditions – at least in the short term.

Ethical considerations of last chance tourism

Global environmental change is altering natural and built systems in many regions of the world and such changes play a significant role in an emerging travel trend that has been labelled ‘last chance tourism’ (LCT). In LCT, tourism demand is based on the desire to see these vulnerable places and features before they disappear or are essentially and irrevocably changed. The paradox in this new form of travel lies in the fact that the tourists often travel long distances and, thus, are disproportionately responsible per capita for increased greenhouse gas emissions and various other stressors that have the potential to alter further the very attractions being visited. The emergence of LCT requires careful ethical consideration and adds a new twist to the debate about ‘loving a destination to death’. In this case, the relationship is indirect and intangible, and is complicated by spatial and temporal lags, as well as the complex system of biophysical interactions at the heart of climate change. LCT presents a situation that is considerably more difficult to manage and mitigate than those where tourism involves only direct and local impacts. Through a praxis/reflective approach, we discuss this complexity and the various ethical issues associated with marketing and managing LCT. In order to provide context and clarification of the LCT concept, we use one of the most evocative symbols of climate change, the polar bears of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, as a source of empirical evidence and a foundation for exploring ethical considerations.

Natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on climate change.

An important precursor to the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies is to understand the perceived capacity to implement and operationalize such strategies. Utilizing an importance-performance analysis (IPA) evaluation framework, this article presents a comparative case study of federal and state land and natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on factors influencing adaptive capacity in two U.S. regions (northern Colorado and southwestern South Dakota). Results revealed several important findings with substantial management implications. First, none of the managers ranked the adaptive capacity factors as a low priority. Second, managers held the perception that their agencies were performing either neutrally or poorly on most factors influencing adaptive capacity. Third, gap analysis revealed that significant improvements are required to facilitate optimal agency functioning when dealing with climate change-related management issues. Overall, results suggest that a host of institutional and policy-oriented (e.g., lack of clear mandate to adapt to climate change), financial and human resource (e.g., inadequate staff and financial resources), informational (e.g., inadequate research and monitoring programs) and contextual barriers (e.g., sufficient regional networks to mitigate potential transboundary impacts) currently challenge the efficient and effective integration of climate change into decision-making and management within agencies working in these regions. The IPA framework proved to be an effective tool to help managers identify and understand agency strengths, areas of concern, redundancies, and areas that warrant the use of limited funds and/or resource re-allocation in order to enhance adaptive capacity and maximize management effectiveness with respect to climate change.