Ailene K. Ettinger

How will biotic interactions influence climate change–induced range shifts?

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change–induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change–induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change–induced range shifts.

Spatial Heterogeneity in Ecologically Important Climate Variables at Coarse and Fine Scales in a High-Snow Mountain Landscape

Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

Conifer growth and reproduction in urban forest fragments: Predictors of future responses to global change?

Global change has a large and growing influence on forests, particularly in urban and urbanizing areas. Compared to rural forests, urban forests may experience warmer temperatures, higher CO2 levels, and greater nitrogen deposition, with exacerbated differences at urban forest edges. Thus, comparing urban to rural forests may help predict future effects of global change on forests. We focused on the conifer western red-cedar (Thuja plicata) to test three hypotheses: at urban forest edges, relative to rural forests and urban forest centers, trees experience 1) higher temperatures and nitrogen levels, 2) lower seedling recruitment, and 3) greater growth. We additionally tested anecdotal reports that 4) tree seedling recruitment in urban and rural forests is much lower than in “pristine” old-growth forests. To test these hypotheses, we quantified air temperature, soil nitrate, adult T. plicata growth and seedling recruitment in five urban and three rural parks at both forest edges and centers. We also quantified T. plicata recruitment at five old-growth “pristine” sites. Temperatures were highest at urban forest edges, and soil nitrate was highest in urban forests. In urban relative to rural forests, we observed greater T. plicata growth, but no difference in seedling densities. However, seedling densities were lower in urban and rural forests than in old-growth forests. In all, our results suggest urban influences enhance adult T. plicata growth, but not seedling recruitment. Recruitment in urban and rural forests was reduced compared to old-growth forests, implying that fragmentation and logging reduce T. plicata seedling recruitment.

Climate Change: Anticipating and Adapting to the Impacts on Terrestrial Species

Addressing the impacts of climate change on terrestrial species requires knowledge of how climates will change, how species will respond, and what is the scope of actions that can be taken to help species and systems adapt. There is a rapidly growing understanding of how species will respond to projected climatic changes with changes in their phenologies, distributions, population dynamics, interspecific interactions, and disease dynamics. Many management strategies have been proposed for addressing these changes, including general principles such as fostering resilience, practicing adaptive management, and expanding the scale of management as well as more specific recommendations such as increasing landscape connectivity and increasing the extent of reserve networks.