Akiko Nishiguchi

Evaluation of surveillance strategies for bovine brucellosis in Japan using a simulation model

Bovine brucellosis is caused by Brucella abortus and induces abortions in female cattle, with other cattle at risk of infection from the aborted fetus or contaminated placenta. In Japan, the number of cases has dramatically reduced due to national surveillance and eradication strategies. Bovine brucellosis is now believed to be eradicated in Japan. Here, we examine the surveillance strategies currently in place for early detection of infected cattle in the event of a future reintroduction of the disease. We compared current serological surveillance for the dairy population with bulk-milk surveillance and abortion surveillance, and used time to detection as the main criterion of surveillance efficacy. A stochastic individual-based model (IBM) was developed to simulate disease transmission within and between farms. Using outputs from the transmission model, a comparison of surveillance strategies was simulated. For evaluation of the robustness of the parameter values used in the transmission model, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. For the purpose of evaluating the direct costs of each surveillance strategy, the annual number of samples to be tested and the annual number of farms to be visited were estimated. Our results indicated that current serological surveillance with 60-month test intervals is not effective enough for rapid detection of a brucellosis outbreak. Bulk-milk surveillance appeared the most effective method based on the early detection of infected cows and a reduced number of samples required. The time to detection for abortion surveillance was greater than that of bulk-milk surveillance but varied widely depending on the reported ratio of abortions. Results from the surveillance model were consistent when alternative scenarios were applied to the transmission model. Although our model cannot exactly replicate an actual brucellosis outbreak, or the results of surveillance, our results may help decision-makers to choose the most effective surveillance strategy.

Simulation-based estimation of BSE infection in Japan

The first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan was found in September 2001. As a result, national BSE surveillance systems in slaughterhouses and farms were introduced between October 2001 and April 2004. All cattle, with the exception of those under 24 months of age that die at farms, now undergo compulsory testing when they die or are slaughtered. The removal of specified risk material (SRM) from all slaughtered cattle and a ban on the feeding of meat-and-bone meal to all farm animals were implemented in October 2001. However, infected cattle that died or were slaughtered before these measures were put into practice could have been a source of infection to other cattle through the rendering process. The slaughtered cattle could also have been a source of infection to humans via SRM that entered the food chain. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number of BSE-infected cattle that could have been a source of infection to cattle and humans before October 2001. Since all typical cases were dairy cattle, this study focused on the dairy cattle population. We developed a simulation model to obtain the year of death and the final disposition of infected cows born in each year from 1996 to 2001. In this model, the dairy cattle population was divided into birth cohorts, and parameters regarding its population dynamics were assumed to be constant. Using this model, the total number of infected cattle in each birth year was estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using data on the number of detected cases from 2002 to 2006. Finally, the number of infected cattle that died or were slaughtered each year was estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation using the same model with the total number of infected cattle estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. It was estimated that the majority of infected cattle that could have been sources of infection before 2001 were born in 1996. The total number born in 1996 was estimated to be 155 (95% confidence interval: 90-275). Of these 155 cattle, 56 died or were slaughtered before October 2001, after the accumulation of infectious agent in their bodies. Only 5 of these 56 cattle were estimated to have been slaughtered. Therefore, the number of infected cattle that could have served as a source of human infection would appear to have been a very limited subset of the BSE-infected cattle in Japan.

Cross-Sectional Survey of Ixodid Tick Species on Grazing Cattle in Japan

Ixodid tick species were collected from cattle in 60 grazing fields throughout Japan. Haemaphysalis longicornis was mainly recovered in the western and southern regions, while Ixodes species were collected mainly in the central to northern regions. Other tick species such as Amblyomma testudinarium, Boophilus microplus, H. flava and H. kitaokai were identified from a few fields in the central and southern regions. Haemaphysalis longicornis were recovered in the fields with higher temperatures and annual rainfall, whereas I. ovatus and I. persulcatus were collected in fields with lower temperatures and annual rainfall. Some of these tick species are capable of transmitting pathogens harmful to cattle and humans, so proper control strategies are required.

Milk replacers and bovine spongiform encephalopathy in calves, Japan.

Milk Replacers and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Calves, Japan

Estimation of the within-herd transmission parameter of bovine leukemia virus

In this study, we estimated the transmission parameter of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection within herds by following up the serological status of cattle in beef and dairy herds. Two consecutive serological tests using ELISA were conducted for cattle at four beef breeding farms and nine dairy farms with an interval of 5 months. Assuming that sero-converted animals were newly infected, transmission parameters were estimated using a hierarchical Bayesian Poisson model. All tested herds had at least one positive animal at the first testing, but sero-prevalence considerably varied between herds. It is estimated that 0.62 animals were infected by one infected animal introduced into a fully susceptible population for both beef breeding and dairy farms during the 5-month interval. The 95% credible interval of the transmission parameter for the combined herds was 0.37-0.89 over this period. Asymptomatically infected animals with BLV can become the source of lifelong infection in herds. These estimated transmission parameters indicated that the early removal of infected animals with periodical tests could reduce the dissemination of BLV infection within herds.