Ákos Bede-Fazekas

Implementation and application of multiple potential natural vegetation models – a case study of Hungary

Questions Multiple potential natural vegetation (MPNV) is a framework for the probabilistic and multilayer representation of potential vegetation in an area. How can an MPNV model be implemented and synthesized for the full range of vegetation types across a large spatial domain such as a country? What additional ecological and practical information can be gained compared to traditional potential natural vegetation (PNV) estimates? Location Hungary. Methods MPNV was estimated by modelling the occurrence probabilities of individual vegetation types using gradient boosting models (GBM). Vegetation data from the Hungarian Actual Habitat Database (META) and information on the abiotic background (climatic data, soil characteristics, hydrology) were used as inputs to the models. To facilitate MPNV interpretation a new technique for model synthesis (re-scaling) enabling comprehensive visual presentation (synthetic maps) was developed which allows for a comparative view of the potential distribution of individual vegetation types. Results The main result of MPNV modelling is a series of raw and re-scaled probability maps of individual vegetation types for Hungary. Raw probabilities best suit within-type analyses, while re-scaled estimations can also be compared across vegetation types. The latter create a synthetic overview of a locations PNV as a ranked list of vegetation types, and make the comparison of actual and potential landscape composition possible. For example, a representation of forest vs grasslands in MPNV revealed a high level of overlap of the potential range of the two formations in Hungary. Conclusion The MPNV approach allows viewing the potential vegetation composition of locations in far more detail than the PNV approach. Re-scaling the probabilities estimated by the models allows easy access to the results by making potential presence of vegetation types with different data structure comparable for queries and synthetic maps. The wide range of applications identified for MPNV (conservation and restoration prioritization, landscape evaluation) suggests that the PNV concept with the extension towards vegetation distributions is useful both for research and application.

Impacts of urbanisation level and distance from potential natural mosquito breeding habitats on the abundance of canine dirofilariosis

Dirofilariosis is an emerging mosquito-borne veterinary and medical problem in the Northern hemisphere. The ecological investigation of 56 canine dirofilariosis cases in new endemic locations was performed in Szeged, Hungary. The aim was to analyse the influence of the spatial patterns of dog abundance and the potential mosquito breeding habitats on the spatial occurrence patterns of dirofilariosis in the city of Szeged. The limnoecological characterisation was based on the fluvial habitat classification of Amoros of natural water bodies; the built environment was evaluated using the UrbanisationScore urbanisation intensity measuring software. Dirofilaria immitis accounted for 51% and D. repens for 34.3% of the dirofilariosis cases, and in 20% of the cases only the Knotts test was positive. It was concluded that most of the cases were related to locations with a medium to high urbanisation index, although the proximity of mosquito-bearing waters also played an important role in the observed spatial infection patterns. We found that the distance from potential mosquito habitats and the urbanisation intensity determine the abundance of dirofilariosis in urban environments.

An ArcGIS Tool for Modeling the Climate Envelope with Feed-Forward ANN

This article is about the development and application of an ESRI ArcGIS tool that implements a multilayer, feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) to study the climate envelopes of species. The supervised learning is achieved by a backpropagation algorithm. Based on the distribution and the grids of the climate (and edaphic data) of the reference and future periods, the tool predicts the future potential distribution of the studied species. The trained network can be saved and loaded. A modeling result based on the distribution of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is presented as a case study.

MODELLING THE GROWTH OF YOUNG INDIVIDUALS OF PINUS NIGRA ON THIN CARBONATE SOILS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUNGARY

Climate change highly impacts on tree growth and also threatens the forest of the karstic terrains. From the 1980s the frequency of decay events of the Pinus nigra Arnold forests showed a marked increase in Hungary. To understanding the vulnerability of Pinus nigra forests to climate change on shallow karstic soils in continental-sub Mediterranean climatic conditions we developed the study of three sampled population in the typical karstic landscape of Veszprem in North Transdanubia. We built our model on non-invasive approach using the annual growth of the individuals. MPI Echam5 climate model and as aridity index the Thornthwaite Agrometeorological Index were used. Our results indicate that soil thickness up to 11 cm has a major influence on the main growth intensity, however, aridity determines the annual growth rate. Our model results showed that the increasing decay frequency in the last decades was a parallel change to the decreasing growth rate of pines. The climate model predicts the similar, increased decay frequency to the presents. Our results can be valid for a wider areas of the periphery of Mediterranean climate zone while the annual-growth based model is a cost-effective and simple method to study the vitality of pine trees in a given area.

The paradox of the binomial Ixodes ricinus activity and the observed unimodal Lyme borreliosis season in Hungary.

The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run – both observed in Hungary – by distinguishing the temperature-dependent seasonal human and tick activity, the temperature-independent factors, and the multiplicative effect of human outdoor activity in summer holiday, using data from Hungary in the period of 1998–2012. This separation was verified by modeling the Lyme incidence based on the separated factors, and comparing the run of the observed and modeled incidence. We demonstrated the bimodality of tick season by using the originally unimodal Lyme incidence data. To model the outdoor human activity, the amount of camping guest nights was used, which showed an irregular run from mid-June to September. The human outdoor activity showed a similar exponential correlation with ambient temperature to that what the relative incidence did. It was proved that summer holiday has great influence on Lyme incidence.

Ornamental plants as climatic indicators of arthropod vectors

Abstract The importance and risk of vector-borne diseases (e.g., leishmaniasis, West Nile Virus, Lyme borreliosis) is going to increase in the European temperate areas due to climate change. Our previous studies have shown that the potential distribution of Leishmania infantum and some Phlebotomus (sand fly) species - a parasite of leishmaniasis, and its vectors - may be expanded even to the southern coastline of the Baltic Sea by the end of the 21st century. The lowland areas of the Carpathian Basin and the main part of Hungary are projected to be suitable for the studied sand fly vectors in the near future. It is important to find some indicator plants to examine whether the sand flies are able to live in a certain climate at a certain time. We studied several Mediterranean and Sub-Mediterranean plant species, and we found that the aggregated distribution of three ligneous species (Juniperus oxycedrus L., Quercus ilex L. and Pinus brutia Ten.) shows high correlation with the union distribution of five sand flies (Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., Ph. neglectus Tonn., Ph. perfiliewi Parrot, Ph. perniciosus Newst. and Ph. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie). Since these Mediterranean species are highly tolerant of the edaphic characteristics of the planting site, they may prove to be good indicators. The present and upcoming climate of Hungary is seen to be suitable for the selected indicator plant species, and it draws attention to and verifies the potential of the expansion of sand flies, which has been proved by some recent observations of the vectors in Southern Hungary.