Alan D. Jassby

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and phosphorus in the annual nutrient load of Lake Tahoe (California-Nevada)

Atmospheric deposition provides most of the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and total nitrogen in the annual nutrient load of Lake Tahoe. Deposition also contributes significant amounts of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus loading but plays less of a role than in the case of nitrogen. Most of the DIN probably originates outside of the drainage basin in urban and agricultural areas to the south and west. Spatial patterns of SRP deposition differ from those of DIN and suggest a within-basin terrestrial source, such as leachate from windblown dust or other particles. Because of atmospheric N deposition, the N:P (molar) ratio in combined loading is well above the Redfield ratio of 16 and consistent with an observed shift from colimitation by N and P to persistent P limitation in the lake phytoplankton.

Complex seasonal patterns of primary producers at the land-sea interface

Seasonal fluctuations of plant biomass and photosynthesis are key features of the Earth system because they drive variability of atmospheric CO(2), water and nutrient cycling, and food supply to consumers. There is no inventory of phytoplankton seasonal cycles in nearshore coastal ecosystems where forcings from ocean, land and atmosphere intersect. We compiled time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) from 114 estuaries, lagoons, inland seas, bays and shallow coastal waters around the world, and searched for seasonal patterns as common timing and amplitude of monthly variability. The data revealed a broad continuum of seasonal patterns, with large variability across and within ecosystems. This contrasts with annual cycles of terrestrial and oceanic primary producers for which seasonal fluctuations are recurrent and synchronous over large geographic regions. This finding bears on two fundamental ecological questions: (1) how do estuarine and coastal consumers adapt to an irregular and unpredictable food supply, and (2) how can we extract signals of climate change from phytoplankton observations in coastal ecosystems where local-scale processes can mask responses to changing climate?

A cold phase of the East Pacific triggers new phytoplankton blooms in San Francisco Bay

Ecological observations sustained over decades often reveal abrupt changes in biological communities that signal altered ecosystem states. We report a large shift in the biological communities of San Francisco Bay, first detected as increasing phytoplankton biomass and occurrences of new seasonal blooms that began in 1999. This phytoplankton increase is paradoxical because it occurred in an era of decreasing wastewater nutrient inputs and reduced nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, contrary to the guiding paradigm that algal biomass in estuaries increases in proportion to nutrient inputs from their watersheds. Coincidental changes included sharp declines in the abundance of bivalve mollusks, the key phytoplankton consumers in this estuary, and record high abundances of several bivalve predators: Bay shrimp, English sole, and Dungeness crab. The phytoplankton increase is consistent with a trophic cascade resulting from heightened predation on bivalves and suppression of their filtration control on phytoplankton growth. These community changes in San Francisco Bay across three trophic levels followed a state change in the California Current System characterized by increased upwelling intensity, amplified primary production, and strengthened southerly flows. These diagnostic features of the East Pacific “cold phase” lead to strong recruitment and immigration of juvenile flatfish and crustaceans into estuaries where they feed and develop. This study, built from three decades of observation, reveals a previously unrecognized mechanism of ocean–estuary connectivity. Interdecadal oceanic regime changes can propagate into estuaries, altering their community structure and efficiency of transforming land-derived nutrients into algal biomass.

Bioavailability of organic matter in a highly disturbed estuary: The role of detrital and algal resources

The importance of algal and detrital food supplies to the planktonic food web of a highly disturbed, estuarine ecosystem was evaluated in response to declining zooplankton and fish populations. We assessed organic matter bioavailability among a diversity of habitats and hydrologic inputs over 2 years in San Francisco Estuarys Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. Results show that bioavailable dissolved organic carbon from external riverine sources supports a large component of ecosystem metabolism. However, bioavailable particulate organic carbon derived primarily from internal phytoplankton production is the dominant food supply to the planktonic food web. The relative importance of phytoplankton as a food source is surprising because phytoplankton production is a small component of the ecosystems organic-matter mass balance. Our results indicate that management plans aimed at modifying the supply of organic matter to riverine, estuarine, and coastal food webs need to incorporate the potentially wide nutritional range represented by different organic matter sources.

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

BACKGROUND Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We linked a series of models to investigate responses of Californias San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Detecting Changes in Ecological Time Series

Some practical techniques are discussed for analyzing time series whose statistical properties are changing with time. We first consider how principal component analysis can reduce the multidimensional nature of certain series and, in particular, apply this technique to the analysis of changing seasonal patterns. Discussions of trend, changes in oscillatory behavior, and unusual events follow. The problem of making inferences regarding causation is briefly considered. We conclude with a call for flexibility in approach. See full-text article at JSTOR

Organic matter sources and rehabilitation of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (California, USA)

1. The Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, a complex mosaic of tidal freshwater habitats in California, is the focus of a major ecosystem rehabilitation effort because of significant long-term changes in critical ecosystem functions. One of these functions is the production, transport and transformation of organic matter that constitutes the primary food supply, which may be sub-optimal at trophic levels supporting fish recruitment. A long historical data set is used to define the most important organic matter sources, the factors underlying their variability, and the implications of ecosystem rehabilitation actions for these sources. 2. Tributary-borne loading is the largest organic carbon source on an average annual Delta-wide basis; phytoplankton production and agricultural drainage are secondary; wastewater treatment plant discharge, tidal marsh drainage and possibly aquatic macrophyte production are tertiary; and benthic microalgal production, urban run-off and other sources are negligible. 3. Allochthonous dissolved organic carbon must be converted to particulate form—with losses due to hydraulic flushing and to heterotroph growth inefficiency—before it becomes available to the metazoan food web. When these losses are accounted for, phytoplankton production plays a much larger role than is evident from a simple accounting of bulk organic carbon sources, especially in seasons critical for larval development and recruitment success. Phytoplankton-derived organic matter is also an important component of particulate loading to the Delta. 4. The Delta is a net producer of organic matter in critically dry years but, because of water diversion from the Delta, transport of organic matter from the Delta to important, downstream nursery areas in San Francisco Bay is always less than transport into the Delta from upstream sources. 5. Of proposed rehabilitation measures, increased use of floodplains probably offers the biggest increase in organic matter sources. 6. An isolated diversion facility—channelling water from the Sacramento River around the Delta to the water projects—would result in substantial loading increases during winter and autumn, but little change in spring and summer when food availability probably matters most to developing organisms. 7. Flow and fish barriers in the channel could have significant effects, especially on phytoplankton sources and in dry years, by eliminating ‘short-circuits’ in the transport of organic matter to diversion points. 8. Finally, productivity of intentionally flooded islands probably would exceed that of adjacent channels because of lower turbidity and shallower mean depth, although vascular plants rather than phytoplankton could dominate if depths were too shallow. Copyright

Water clarity modeling in Lake Tahoe: Linking suspended matter characteristics to Secchi depth

Abstract.An additive semi-analytic model of water clarity for the forward problem of calculating apparent optical properties (AOPs) of diffuse attenuation and Secchi depth from the inherent optical properties (IOPs) due to suspended matter in oligotrophic waters is presented. The model is general in form, taking into account algal concentration, suspended inorganic sediment concentration, particle size distribution, and dissolved organic matter to predict Secchi depth and diffuse attenuation. The model’s application to ultra-oligotrophic Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA is described. The function of the clarity model is to quantify the relative effect of phytoplankton or phytoplankton-derived organic materials, other particles such as suspended mineral sediment, and dissolved organic matter on the lake’s clarity. It is concluded that suspended inorganic sediments and phytoplanktonic algae both contribute significantly to the reduction in clarity, and that suspended particulate matter, rather than dissolved organic matter, are the dominant causes of clarity loss.

Detritus Fuels Ecosystem Metabolism but not Metazoan Food Webs in San Francisco Estuary's Freshwater Delta

Detritus from terrestrial ecosystems is the major source of organic matter in many streams, rivers, and estuaries, yet the role of detritus in supporting pelagic food webs is debated. We examined the importance of detritus to secondary productivity in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Delta (California, United States), a large complex of tidal freshwater habitats. The Delta ecosystem has low primary productivity but large detrital inputs, so we hypothesized that de tritus is the primary energy source fueling production in pelagic food webs. We assessed the sources, quantity, composition, and bioavailability of organic matter among a diversity of habitats (e.g., marsh sloughs, floodplains, tidal lakes, and deep river channels) over two years to test this hypothesis. Our results support the emerging principle that detritus dominates riverine and estuarine organic matter supply and supports the majority of ecosystem metabolism. Yet in contrast to prevailing ideas, we found that detritus was weakly coupled to the Deltas pelagic food web. Results from independent approaches showed that phytoplankton production was the dominant source of organic matter for the Deltas pelagic food web, even though primary production accounts for a small fraction of the Deltas organic matter supply. If these results are general, they suggest that the value of organic matter to higher trophic levels, including species targeted by programs of ecosystem restoration, is a function of phytoplankton production.

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific.

Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.