Thomas M. Powell

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change

Decadal fluctuations in salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, a variety of zooplankton taxa, and fish stocks in the Northeast Pacific are often poorly correlated with the most widely-used index of large-scale climate variability in the region - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We define a new pattern of climate change, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and show that its variability is significantly correlated with previously unexplained fluctuations of salinity, nutrients and chlorophyll. Fluctuations in the NPGO are driven by regional and basin-scale variations in wind-driven upwelling and horizontal advection - the fundamental processes controlling salinity and nutrient concentrations. Nutrient fluctuations drive concomitant changes in phytoplankton concentrations, and may force similar variability in higher trophic levels. The NPGO thus provides a strong indicator of fluctuations in the mechanisms driving planktonic ecosystem dynamics. The NPGO pattern extends beyond the North Pacific and is part of a global-scale mode of climate variability that is evident in global sea level trends and sea surface temperature. Therefore the amplification of the NPGO variance found in observations and in global warming simulations implies that the NPGO may play an increasingly important role in forcing global-scale decadal changes in marine ecosystems.

Chaos in a Three‐Species Food Chain

A continuous time model of a food chain incorporating nonlinear functional (and numerical) responses exhibits chaotic dynamics in long-term behavior when biolog- ically reasonable parameter values are chosen. The appearance of chaos in this model suggests that chaotic dynamics may be common in natural food webs.

Individual-based models of copepod populations in coastal upwelling regions : implications of physiologically and environmentally influenced diel vertical migration on demographic success and nearshore retention

We link a two-dimension coastal upwelling circulation hydrodynamic-ecosystem (NPZ) model with an individual-based model (IBM) for an intermediate sized (ca. 2.5 mm) copepod capable of diel vertical migration (DVM) at larger sizes. The NPZ model is that of Franks, Wroblewski and Flierl (1986), with the zooplankton state variable parameterized for macrozooplankton. IBM simulations are done with different scenarios for behavioral responses; the interaction of the organisms with the circulation is evaluated by examining growth/development, reproduction, survival and distribution. Since ocean productivity in coastal upwelling systems is greatest nearshore, zooplankton production is favored by nearshore retention. Model results, using an idealized, intermittently wind-forced, upwelling circulation, indicate that non-migrating copepods are flushed from the nearshore system in offshore zonal surface flow; highest population abundances occur offshore, in a region of relatively low food resources. Conversely, migrating copepods interact with the stratified zonal flow within the upwelling system and are retained nearshore when the amplitude of the DVM is sufficient to place the individuals in near-bottom onshore flow during the day. Environmental features, like deep-extending food resources, and physiological controls, like satiation or body size, that permit copepods to remain deeper, or spend more time away from the surface, favor nearshore retention. Diel vertical migration is one mechanism, which may permit animals to exploit favorable habitats located nearshore in upwelling systems.

Detecting Changes in Ecological Time Series

Some practical techniques are discussed for analyzing time series whose statistical properties are changing with time. We first consider how principal component analysis can reduce the multidimensional nature of certain series and, in particular, apply this technique to the analysis of changing seasonal patterns. Discussions of trend, changes in oscillatory behavior, and unusual events follow. The problem of making inferences regarding causation is briefly considered. We conclude with a call for flexibility in approach. See full-text article at JSTOR

The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations

Abstract We synthesize the results of several modelling studies that address the influence of variability in larval transport and survival on the dynamics of marine metapopulations distributed along a coast. Two important benthic invertebrates in the California Current System (CCS), the Dungeness crab and the red sea urchin, are used as examples of the way in which physical oceanographic conditions can influence stability, synchrony and persistence of meroplanktonic metapopulations. We first explore population dynamics of subpopulations and metapopulations. Even without environmental forcing, isolated local subpopulations with density-dependence can vary on time scales roughly twice the generation time at high adult survival, shifting to annual time scales at low survivals. The high frequency behavior is not seen in models of the Dungeness crab, because of their high adult survival rates. Metapopulations with density-dependent recruitment and deterministic larval dispersal fluctuate in an asynchronous fashion. Along the coast, abundance varies on spatial scales which increase with dispersal distance. Coastwide, synchronous, random environmental variability tends to synchronize these metapopulations. Climate change could cause a long-term increase or decrease in mean larval survival, which in this model leads to greater synchrony or extinction respectively. Spatially managed metapopulations of red sea urchins go extinct when distances between harvest refugia become greater than the scale of larval dispersal. All assessments of population dynamics indicate that metapopulation behavior in general dependes critically on the temporal and spatial nature of larval dispersal, which is largely determined by physical oceanographic conditions. We therfore explore physical influences on larval dispersal patterns. Observed trends in temperature and salinity applied to laboratory-determined responses indicate that natural variability in temperature and salinity can lead to variability in larval development period on interannual (50%), intra-annual (20%) and latitudinal (200%) scales. Variability in development period significantly influences larval survival and, thus, net transport. Larval drifters that undertake diel vertical migration in a primitive equation model of coastal circulation (SPEM) demonstrate the importance of vertical migration in determining horizontal transport. Empirically derived estimates of the effects of wind forcing on larval transport of vertically migrating larvae (wind drift when near the surface and Ekman transport below the surface) match cross-shelf distributions in 4 years of existing larval data. We use a one-dimensional advection-diffusion model, which includes intra-annual timing of cross-shelf flows in the CCS, to explore the combined effects on settlement: (1) temperature- and salinity-dependent development and survival rates and (2) possible horizontal transport due to vertical migration of crab larvae. Natural variability in temperature, wind forcing, and the timing of the spring transition can cause the observed variability in recruitment. We conclude that understanding the dynamics of coastally distributed metapopulations in response to physically-induced variability in larval dispersal will be a critical step in assessing the effects of climate change on marine populations.

Spatial scales of current speed and phytoplankton biomass fluctuations in lake tahoe.

Spectral analysis of current speed and chlorophyll a measurements in Lake Tahoe, California and Nevada, indicates that considerably more variance exists at longer length scales in chlorophyll than in the current speeds. Increasingly, above scales of approximately 100 meters, chlorophyll does not behave as a simple passive contaminant distributed by turbulence, which indicates that biological processes contribute significantly to the observed variance at these large length scales.

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY EFFECTS ON MARINE FISHERIES: FOUR CASE HISTORIES

The changing nature of marine fisheries requires management approaches that recognize and include ecosystem and environmental effects. Therefore, we review some examples of exploited fishery stocks in which environmental control is a major contributor to structuring the abundance and distribution of the stock. Four examples, taken from studies of northern cod (Gadus morhua), cod and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), are given that clearly illustrate environmental control on the fishery. From these examples, we argue that future management strategies for exploited fisheries must include effects of environmental variability. In particular, management strategies must be flexible enough to include delayed responses to environmental variations that result from the transfer of per- turbations from larger to smaller scales and vice versa. This capability requires an under- standing of where linkages between the physical environment and the species of interest occur. Development of this knowledge requires input from a variety of disciplines, coor- dinated research programs, and considerable cooperation at national and international levels.

Spatial and temporal variability in South San-Francisco Bay(USA).II.Temporal changes in salinity, suspended sediments, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity over tidal time scales

Short-term variability of a conservative quantity (salinity) and two nonconservative quantities (chlorophyll a, suspended particulate matter) was measured across a sampling grid in the South San Francisco Bay estuary. Surface measurements were made every 2 h at each of 29 (or 38) sites, on four different dates representing a range of tidal current regimes over the neap-spring cycle. From the distribution of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and turbidity (SPM), we also estimated daily productivity and its variability at each site over the four tide cycles. As a general rule, both chlorophyll a and SPM concentrations varied about 50% from their tidal-means. However derived daily productivity varied less (about 15% from the mean) over a tidal cycle. Both chlorophyll a and SPM varied periodically with tidal stage (increasing on ebbing currents), suggesting that the short-term variability results simply from the tidal advection of spatial gradients. Calculation of the advective flux (current speed times spatial gradient) was used to test this hypothesis. For surface salinity, most (70–80%) of the observed intratidal variability was correlated with the tidal flux, both in the deep channel and over the lateral shoals. However the short-term variability of SPM concentration was only weakly correlated with the advective flux, indicating that local sources of SPM (resuspension) are important. Hourly changes in chlorophyll a were highly correlated with the advective flux in the deep channel (implying that phytoplankton biomass is conservative over short time scales there); however, chlorophyll a variability was only weakly correlated with the advective flux over the shoals, implying that local sources/sinks are important there. Hence, the magnitude and mechanisms of intratidal variability differ among constituents and among bathymetric regimes in this estuary.

Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific.

Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.

Spatial and temporal variability in South San Francisco Bay (USA). I. Horizontal distributions of salinity, suspended sediments, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity

The horizontal pattern of mesoscale (1–4 km) variability in salinity was a poor predictor of mesoscale patterns in chlorophyll a, suspended particulate matter, and daily primary productivity in the South San Francisco Bay estuary during spring 1987. The tidally-averaged salinity distribution varied over weekly time scales, reflecting inputs of freshwater as well as transport processes. Spatial distributions of the other quantities also varied weekly, but not in concert with the salt field. Spatial patterns of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) deviated from the salinity patterns, largely reflecting in situ production of phytoplankton biomass during the spring bloom. The tidally-averaged distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) was highly dynamic and responded to (1) the riverine input of suspended sediment during a freshet, (2) neap-spring variations in tidally-driven resuspension, and (3) resuspension in shallows following a period of wind mixing. Two-dimensional distributions of primary productivity P′, derived from maps of biomass and turbidity (SPM), also varied weekly, but the spatial variability of P′ was only about half that of SPM and chlorophyll. Since the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability differ among nonconservative quantities, at least in part because of local sources and sinks, we conclude that the spatial distributions of nonconservative quantities cannot be predicted from distributions of conservative tracers, such as salinity.