Alan Muir

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Rapid discharge connects Antarctic subglacial lakes

The existence of many subglacial lakes provides clear evidence for the widespread presence of water beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet, but the hydrology beneath this ice mass is poorly understood. Such knowledge is critical to understanding ice flow, basal water transfer to the ice margin, glacial landform development and subglacial lake habitats. Here we present ice-sheet surface elevation changes in central East Antarctica that we interpret to represent rapid discharge from a subglacial lake. Our observations indicate that during a period of 16 months, 1.8 km3 of water was transferred over 290 km to at least two other subglacial lakes. While viscous deformation of the ice roof above may moderate discharge, the intrinsic instability of such a system suggests that discharge events are a common mode of basal drainage. If large lakes, such as Lake Vostok or Lake Concordia, are pressurizing, it is possible that substantial discharges could reach the coast. Our observations conflict with expectations that subglacial lakes have long residence times and slow circulations, and we suggest that entire subglacial drainage basins may be flushed periodically. The rapid transfer of water between lakes would result in large-scale solute and microbe relocation, and drainage system contamination from in situ exploration is, therefore, a distinct risk.

Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat‐2

We use 3 years of Cryosat-2 radar altimeter data to develop the first comprehensive assessment of Antarctic ice sheet elevation change. This new data set provides near-continuous (96%) coverage of the entire continent, extending to within 215 km of the South Pole and leading to a fivefold increase in the sampling of coastal regions where the vast majority of all ice losses occur. Between 2010 and 2013, West Antarctica, East Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by −134 ± 27, −3 ± 36, and −23 ± 18 Gt yr−1, respectively. In West Antarctica, signals of imbalance are present in areas that were poorly surveyed by past missions, contributing additional losses that bring altimeter observations closer to estimates based on other geodetic techniques. However, the average rate of ice thinning in West Antarctica has also continued to rise, and mass losses from this sector are now 31% greater than over the period 2005–2010.

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet

The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992–2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range −5–+85 Gt yr−1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend—growth of 27±29 Gt yr−1—is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

A high‐resolution record of Greenland mass balance

We map recent Greenland Ice Sheet elevation change at high spatial (5 km) and temporal (monthly) resolution using CryoSat-2 altimetry. After correcting for the impact of changing snowpack properties associated with unprecedented surface melting in 2012, we find good agreement (3 cm/yr bias) with airborne measurements. With the aid of regional climate and firn modeling, we compute high spatial and temporal resolution records of Greenland mass evolution, which correlate (R = 0.96) with monthly satellite gravimetry and reveal glacier dynamic imbalance. During 2011–2014, Greenland mass loss averaged 269 ± 51 Gt/yr. Atmospherically driven losses were widespread, with surface melt variability driving large fluctuations in the annual mass deficit. Terminus regions of five dynamically thinning glaciers, which constitute less than 1% of Greenland’s area, contributed more than 12% of the net ice loss. This high-resolution record demonstrates that mass deficits extending over small spatial and temporal scales have made a relatively large contribution to recent ice sheet imbalance.

Uneven onset and pace of ice-dynamical imbalance in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

We combine measurements acquired by five satellite altimeter missions to obtain an uninterrupted record of ice sheet elevation change over the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, since 1992. Using these data, we examine the onset of surface lowering arising through ice-dynamical imbalance, and the pace at which it has propagated inland, by tracking elevation changes along glacier flow lines. Surface lowering has spread slowest (<6 km/yr) along the Pope, Smith, and Kohler (PSK) Glaciers, due to their small extent. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is characterized by a continuous inland spreading of surface lowering, notably fast at rates of 13 to 15 km/yr along tributaries draining the southeastern lobe, possibly due to basal conditions or tributary geometry. Surface lowering on Thwaites Glacier (THG) has been episodic and has spread inland fastest (10 to 12 km/yr) along its central flow lines. The current episodes of surface lowering started approximately 10 years before the first measurements on PSK, around 1990 on PIG, and around 2000 on THG. Ice-dynamical imbalance across the sector has therefore been uneven during the satellite record.

A Comparison of Recent Elevation Change Estimates of the Devon Ice Cap as Measured by the ICESat and EnviSAT Satellite Altimeters

We have used surface elevation measurements acquired by the Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) and EnviSAT Radar Altimeter 2 (RA-2) satellite altimeters to assess the elevation change of the 13 700-km2 Devon Ice Cap (DIC) in Arctic Canada between 2002 and 2008. We present algorithms for the retrieval of elevation change rates over ice caps using data acquired from these satellites. A comparison of GLAS elevation data to those acquired by the RA-2 shows reasonable agreement between the two instruments; the root mean square elevation change difference was 56 cm, and the correlation coefficient between the two data sets was 0.68. Using only RA-2 elevation measurements, which are spatially and temporally more continuous, we determined the elevation change rate of the areas of the DIC where the surface geometry allows the RA-2 retracker to maintain lock. This includes most of the DIC, excluding large parts of the eastern half of the ice cap. The elevation change rate was found to be insignificant given a statistical estimate of the measurement error (-0.09 ± 0.29 m/a). We also present an assessment of the regional variations of the DIC elevation change, including a significant -0.71 ± 0.49 m/a elevation change rate of the 1980-km2 western arm. Furthermore, we present evidence of a localized 2-m drop in the surface elevation of the South Croker Bay Glacier during summer 2007. This drop is apparent within both satellite data sets, and we interpret this signal to reflect a sudden speedup of the glacier.

Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines

Grounding lines are a key indicator of ice-sheet instability, because changes in their position reflect imbalance with the surrounding ocean and affect the flow of inland ice. Although the grounding lines of several Antarctic glaciers have retreated rapidly due to ocean-driven melting, records are too scarce to assess the scale of the imbalance. Here, we combine satellite altimeter observations of ice-elevation change and measurements of ice geometry to track grounding-line movement around the entire continent, tripling the coverage of previous surveys. Between 2010 and 2016, 22%, 3% and 10% of surveyed grounding lines in West Antarctica, East Antarctica and at the Antarctic Peninsula retreated at rates faster than 25 m yr−1 (the typical pace since the Last Glacial Maximum) and the continent has lost 1,463 km2 ± 791 km2 of grounded-ice area. Although by far the fastest rates of retreat occurred in the Amundsen Sea sector, we show that the Pine Island Glacier grounding line has stabilized, probably as a consequence of abated ocean forcing. On average, Antarctica’s fast-flowing ice streams retreat by 110 metres per metre of ice thinning.Grounding lines in parts of West Antarctica, East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula retreated faster than typical post-glacial pace, according to satellite observations and ice geometry measurements.

ESA ice sheet CCI: derivation of the optimal method for surface elevation change detection of the Greenland ice sheet – round robin results

For more than two decades, radar altimetry missions have provided continuous elevation estimates of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Here, we propose a method for using such data to estimate ice-sheet-wide surface elevation changes (SECs). The final data set will be based on observations acquired from the European Space Agency’s Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT), European Remote Sensing (ERS)-1 and -2, CryoSat-2, and, in the longer term, Sentinel-3 satellites. In order to find the best-performing method, an intercomparison exercise has been carried out in which the scientific community was asked to provide their best SEC estimates as well as feedback sheets describing the applied method. Due to the hitherto few radar-based SEC analyses as well as the higher accuracy of laser data, the participants were asked to use either ENVISAT radar or ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry over the Jakobshavn Isbræ drainage basin. The submissions were validated against airborne laser-scanner data, and intercomparisons were carried out to analyse the potential of the applied methods and to find whether the two altimeters were capable of resolving the same signal. The analyses found great potential of the applied repeat-track and cross-over techniques, and, for the first time over Greenland, that repeat-track analyses from radar altimetry agreed well with laser data. Since topography-related errors can be neglected in cross-over analyses, it is expected that the most accurate, ice-sheet-wide SEC estimates are obtained by combining the cross-over and repeat-track techniques. It is thus possible to exploit the high accuracy of the former and the large spatial data coverage of the latter. Based on CryoSat’s different operation modes, and the increased spatial and temporal data coverage, this shows good potential for a future inclusion of CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 data to continuously obtain accurate SEC estimates both in the interior and margin ice sheet.

Ensuring that the Sentinel-3A altimeter provides climate-quality data

Sentinel-3A, launched in February 2016, is part of ESAs long-term commitment to climate monitoring from space. Its suite of instruments for measuring surface topography includes a Microwave Radiometer (MWR) and SRAL, the first delay-Doppler instrument to provide global coverage. SRAL promises fine spatial resolution and reduced noise levels that should together lead to improved performance over all Earth surfaces. The Sentinel-3 Mission Performance Centre (S3MPC) has been developing the methodology to evaluate the accuracy of retrievals, monitor any changes and develop solutions to known problems. The S3MPC monitors internal temperatures, path delays and the shape of the generated pulses to assess the instruments health. The MWR records over known reference surfaces are compared with those from other spaceborne instruments. Over the ocean the SRALs return pulses are analysed to give range to the sea surface, wave height and signal strength (which can be interpreted as wind speed). The metocean data are regularly contrasted with records from in situ measurements and the output from meteorological models, which rapidly highlights the effects of any changes in processing. Range information is used to give surface elevation, which is assessed in three ways. First, flights over a dedicated radar transponder provide an estimate of path delay to within ~10 mm (r.m.s.). Second, measurements are compared to GPS-levelled surfaces near Corsica and over Lake Issyk-kul. Third, there are consistency checks between ascending and descending passes and with other missions. Further waveform analysis techniques are being developed to improve the retrieval of information over sea-ice, land-ice and inland waters.