Alasdair Gray
University of Edinburgh
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Featured researches published by Alasdair Gray.
The New England Journal of Medicine | 2008
Alasdair Gray; Steve Goodacre; David E. Newby; Moyra Masson; Fiona Sampson; Jon Nicholl
BACKGROUND Noninvasive ventilation (continuous positive airway pressure [CPAP] or noninvasive intermittent positive-pressure ventilation [NIPPV]) appears to be of benefit in the immediate treatment of patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema and may reduce mortality. We conducted a study to determine whether noninvasive ventilation reduces mortality and whether there are important differences in outcome associated with the method of treatment (CPAP or NIPPV). METHODS In a multicenter, open, prospective, randomized, controlled trial, patients were assigned to standard oxygen therapy, CPAP (5 to 15 cm of water), or NIPPV (inspiratory pressure, 8 to 20 cm of water; expiratory pressure, 4 to 10 cm of water). The primary end point for the comparison between noninvasive ventilation and standard oxygen therapy was death within 7 days after the initiation of treatment, and the primary end point for the comparison between NIPPV and CPAP was death or intubation within 7 days. RESULTS A total of 1069 patients (mean [+/-SD] age, 77.7+/-9.7 years; female sex, 56.9%) were assigned to standard oxygen therapy (367 patients), CPAP (346 patients), or NIPPV (356 patients). There was no significant difference in 7-day mortality between patients receiving standard oxygen therapy (9.8%) and those undergoing noninvasive ventilation (9.5%, P=0.87). There was no significant difference in the combined end point of death or intubation within 7 days between the two groups of patients undergoing noninvasive ventilation (11.7% for CPAP and 11.1% for NIPPV, P=0.81). As compared with standard oxygen therapy, noninvasive ventilation was associated with greater mean improvements at 1 hour after the beginning of treatment in patient-reported dyspnea (treatment difference, 0.7 on a visual-analogue scale ranging from 1 to 10; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 1.3; P=0.008), heart rate (treatment difference, 4 beats per minute; 95% CI, 1 to 6; P=0.004), acidosis (treatment difference, pH 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.04; P<0.001), and hypercapnia (treatment difference, 0.7 kPa [5.2 mm Hg]; 95% CI, 0.4 to 0.9; P<0.001). There were no treatment-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS In patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema, noninvasive ventilation induces a more rapid improvement in respiratory distress and metabolic disturbance than does standard oxygen therapy but has no effect on short-term mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN07448447.)
Hepatology | 2013
Daniel J. Antoine; James W. Dear; Philip J. Starkey Lewis; Vivien Platt; Judy Coyle; Moyra Masson; Ruben H. Thanacoody; Alasdair Gray; David J. Webb; Jonathan G. Moggs; D. Nicholas Bateman; Christopher E. Goldring; B. Kevin Park
Acetaminophen overdose is a common reason for hospital admission and the most frequent cause of hepatotoxicity in the Western world. Early identification would facilitate patient‐individualized treatment strategies. We investigated the potential of a panel of novel biomarkers (with enhanced liver expression or linked to the mechanisms of toxicity) to identify patients with acetaminophen‐induced acute liver injury (ALI) at first presentation to the hospital when currently used markers are within the normal range. In the first hospital presentation plasma sample from patients (n = 129), we measured microRNA‐122 (miR‐122; high liver specificity), high mobility group box‐1 (HMGB1; marker of necrosis), full‐length and caspase‐cleaved keratin‐18 (K18; markers of necrosis and apoptosis), and glutamate dehydrogenase (GLDH; marker of mitochondrial dysfunction). Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis and positive/negative predictive values were used to compare sensitivity to report liver injury versus alanine transaminase (ALT) and International Normalized Ratio (INR). In all patients, biomarkers at first presentation significantly correlated with peak ALT or INR. In patients presenting with normal ALT or INR, miR‐122, HMGB1, and necrosis K18 identified the development of liver injury (n = 15) or not (n = 84) with a high degree of accuracy and significantly outperformed ALT, INR, and plasma acetaminophen concentration for the prediction of subsequent ALI (n = 11) compared with no ALI (n = 52) in patients presenting within 8 hours of overdose. Conclusion: Elevations in plasma miR‐122, HMGB1, and necrosis K18 identified subsequent ALI development in patients on admission to the hospital, soon after acetaminophen overdose, and in patients with ALTs in the normal range. The application of such a biomarker panel could improve the speed of clinical decision‐making, both in the treatment of ALI and the design/execution of patient‐individualized treatment strategies. (Hepatology 2013;58:777–787)
BMJ | 2015
Anoop Shah; Megan Griffiths; Kuan Ken Lee; David A. McAllister; Amanda Hunter; Amy Ferry; Anne Cruikshank; Alan Reid; Mary Stoddart; Fiona Strachan; Simon Walker; Paul O. Collinson; Fred S. Apple; Alasdair Gray; Keith A.A. Fox; David E. Newby; Nicholas L. Mills
Objective To evaluate the diagnosis of myocardial infarction using a high sensitivity troponin I assay and sex specific diagnostic thresholds in men and women with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Regional cardiac centre, United Kingdom. Participants Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (n=1126, 46% women). Two cardiologists independently adjudicated the diagnosis of myocardial infarction by using a high sensitivity troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds (men 34 ng/L, women 16 ng/L) and compared with current practice where a contemporary assay (50 ng/L, single threshold) was used to guide care. Main outcome measure Diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Results The high sensitivity troponin I assay noticeably increased the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in women (from 11% to 22%; P<0.001) but had a minimal effect in men (from 19% to 21%, P=0.002). Women were less likely than men to be referred to a cardiologist or undergo coronary revascularisation (P<0.05 for both). At 12 months, women with undisclosed increases in troponin concentration (17-49 ng/L) and those with myocardial infarction (≥50 ng/L) had the highest rate of death or reinfarction compared with women without (≤16 ng/L) myocardial infarction (25%, 24%, and 4%, respectively; P<0.001). Conclusions Although having little effect in men, a high sensitivity troponin assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds may double the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in women and identify those at high risk of reinfarction and death. Whether use of sex specific diagnostic thresholds will improve outcomes and tackle inequalities in the treatment of women with suspected acute coronary syndrome requires urgent attention.
The Lancet | 2015
Anoop Shah; Atul Anand; Yader Sandoval; Kuan Ken Lee; Stephen W. Smith; Philip Adamson; Andrew R. Chapman; Timothy Langdon; Dennis Sandeman; Amar Vaswani; Fiona Strachan; Amy Ferry; Alexandra G Stirzaker; Alan Reid; Alasdair Gray; Paul O. Collinson; David A. McAllister; Fred S. Apple; David E. Newby; Nicholas L. Mills
Summary Background Suspected acute coronary syndrome is the commonest reason for emergency admission to hospital and is a large burden on health-care resources. Strategies to identify low-risk patients suitable for immediate discharge would have major benefits. Methods We did a prospective cohort study of 6304 consecutively enrolled patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to four secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland. We measured plasma troponin concentrations at presentation using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay. In derivation and validation cohorts, we evaluated the negative predictive value of a range of troponin concentrations for the primary outcome of index myocardial infarction, or subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number NCT01852123). Findings 782 (16%) of 4870 patients in the derivation cohort had index myocardial infarction, with a further 32 (1%) re-presenting with myocardial infarction and 75 (2%) cardiac deaths at 30 days. In patients without myocardial infarction at presentation, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 2311 (61%) of 3799 patients, with a negative predictive value of 99·6% (95% CI 99·3–99·8) for the primary outcome. The negative predictive value was consistent across groups stratified by age, sex, risk factors, and previous cardiovascular disease. In two independent validation cohorts, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 594 (56%) of 1061 patients, with an overall negative predictive value of 99·4% (98·8–99·9). At 1 year, these patients had a lower risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death than did those with a troponin concentration of 5 ng/L or more (0·6% vs 3·3%; adjusted hazard ratio 0·41, 95% CI 0·21–0·80; p<0·0001). Interpretation Low plasma troponin concentrations identify two-thirds of patients at very low risk of cardiac events who could be discharged from hospital. Implementation of this approach could substantially reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for both patients and health-care providers. Funding British Heart Foundation and Chief Scientist Office (Scotland).
Journal of the American College of Cardiology | 2010
Matthew J. Reed; David E. Newby; Andrew J Coull; Robin Prescott; Keith G Jacques; Alasdair Gray
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical decision rule (CDR) to predict 1-month serious outcome and all-cause death in patients presenting with syncope to the emergency department. BACKGROUND Syncope is a common, potentially serious condition accounting for many hospital admissions. METHODS This was a single center, prospective, observational study of adults presenting to the emergency department with syncope. A CDR was devised from 550 patients in a derivation cohort and tested in a validation cohort of a further 550 patients. RESULTS One-month serious outcome or all-cause death occurred in 40 (7.3%) patients in the derivation cohort. Independent predictors were brain natriuretic peptide concentration > or =300 pg/ml (odds ratio [OR]: 7.3), positive fecal occult blood (OR: 13.2), hemoglobin < or =90 g/l (OR: 6.7), oxygen saturation < or =94% (OR: 3.0), and Q-wave on the presenting electrocardiogram (OR: 2.8). One-month serious outcome or all-cause death occurred in 39 (7.1%) patients in the validation cohort. The ROSE (Risk stratification Of Syncope in the Emergency department) rule had a sensitivity and specificity of 87.2% and 65.5%, respectively, and a negative predictive value of 98.5%. An elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentration alone was a major predictor of serious cardiovascular outcomes (8 of 22 events, 36%) and all-cause deaths (8 of 9 deaths, 89%). CONCLUSIONS The ROSE rule has excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value in the identification of high-risk patients with syncope. As a component, BNP seems to be a major predictor of serious cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause death. The ROSE rule and BNP measurement might be valuable risk stratification tools in patients with emergency presentations of syncope and should now be subjected to external validation.
Emergency Medicine Journal | 2004
Steven Crane; M W Elliott; P Gilligan; K Richards; Alasdair Gray
Background: Continuous positive airways pressure (CPAP) and bilevel non-invasive ventilation may have beneficial effects in the treatment of patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema. The efficacy of both treatments was assessed in the UK emergency department setting, in a randomised comparison with standard oxygen therapy. Methods: Sixty patients presenting with acidotic (pH<7.35) acute, cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, were randomly assigned conventional oxygen therapy, CPAP (10 cm H2O), or bilevel ventilation (IPAP 15 cm H2O, EPAP 5 cm H2O) provided by a standard ventilator through a face mask. The main end points were treatment success at two hours and in-hospital mortality. Analyses were by intention to treat. Results: Treatment success (defined as all of respiratory rate<23 bpm, oxygen saturation of>90%, and arterial blood pH>7.35 (that is, reversal of acidosis), at the end of the two hour study period) occurred in three (15%) patients in the control group, seven (35%) in the CPAP group, and nine (45%) in the bilevel group (p = 0.116). Fourteen (70%) of the control group patients survived to hospital discharge, compared with 20 (100%) in the CPAP group and 15 (75%) in the bilevel group (p = 0.029; Fisher’s test). Conclusions: In this study, patients presenting with acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema and acidosis, were more likely to survive to hospital discharge if treated with CPAP, rather than with bilevel ventilation or with conventional oxygen therapy. There was no relation between in hospital survival and early physiological changes. Survival rates were similar to other studies despite a low rate of endotracheal intubation.
Heart | 2011
Steve Goodacre; Mike Bradburn; Elizabeth Cross; Paul O. Collinson; Alasdair Gray; Alistair S. Hall
Objectives To determine whether using a point-of-care cardiac biomarker panel would increase the rate of successful discharge home after emergency department assessment, and affect the use of cardiac tests and treatments, subsequent attendance at or admission to hospital and major adverse events. Design and setting Pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial in six acute hospitals in the UK. Participants Patients attending with acute chest pain due to suspected myocardial infarction (N=2243). Interventions Diagnostic assessment using a point-of-care biomarker panel consisting of creatine kinase, myocardial type, myoglobin and troponin I measured at baseline and 90 min compared with standard care without the point-of-care panel. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was successful discharge home, defined as having left hospital or awaiting transport home by 4 h after attendance and no major adverse events up to 3 months. Secondary outcome measures included length of stay, use of coronary care, cardiac interventions and inpatient beds, emergency department attendances, subsequent admissions, outpatient visits and major adverse events. Results Point-of-care panel assessment was associated with an increased rate of successful discharge (358/1125 (32%) vs 146/1118 (13%); OR 3.81, 95% CI 3.01 to 4.82; p<0.001), reduced median length of initial hospital stay (8.8 vs 14.2 h; p<0.001) and greater use of coronary care (50/1125 (4.0%) vs 31/1118 (3.0%); p=0.041), but no difference in mean length of initial stay (29.6 vs 31.7 h; p=0.462), mean inpatient days over follow-up (1.8 vs 1.7; p=0.815) or major adverse events (36 (3%) vs 26 (2%); OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.20; p=0.313). Conclusions Point-of-care panel assessment increases successful discharge home and reduces median length of stay, but does not alter overall hospital bed use. Trial registration Current controlled trials ISRCTN37823923.
Health Technology Assessment | 2009
Alasdair Gray; Steve Goodacre; David E. Newby; Moyra Masson; Fiona Sampson; Simon Dixon; Steven Crane; Mark Elliott; Jon Nicholl; Cpo Study Investigators
OBJECTIVES To determine whether non-invasive ventilation reduces mortality and whether there are important differences in outcome by treatment modality. DESIGN Multicentre open prospective randomised controlled trial. SETTING Patients presenting with severe acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema in 26 emergency departments in the UK. PARTICIPANTS Inclusion criteria were age > 16 years, clinical diagnosis of acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema, pulmonary oedema on chest radiograph, respiratory rate > 20 breaths per minute, and arterial hydrogen ion concentration > 45 nmol/l (pH < 7.35). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomised to standard oxygen therapy, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) (5-15 cmH2O) or non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) (inspiratory pressure 8-20 cmH2O, expiratory pressure 4-10 cmH2O) on a 1:1:1 basis for a minimum of 2 hours. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary end point for the comparison between NIPPV or CPAP and standard therapy was 7-day mortality. The composite primary end point for the comparison of NIPPV and CPAP was 7-day mortality and tracheal intubation rate. Secondary end points were breathlessness, physiological variables, intubation rate, length of hospital stay and critical care admission rate. Economic evaluation took the form of a cost-utility analysis, taken from an NHS (and personal social services) perspective. RESULTS In total, 1069 patients [mean age 78 (SD 10) years; 43% male] were recruited to standard therapy (n = 367), CPAP [n = 346; mean 10 (SD 4) cmH2O] or NIPPV [n = 356; mean 14 (SD 5)/7 (SD 2) cmH2O]. There was no difference in 7-day mortality for standard oxygen therapy (9.8%) and non-invasive ventilation (9.5%; p = 0.87). The combined end point of 7-day death and intubation rate was similar, irrespective of non-invasive ventilation modality (CPAP 11.7% versus NIPPV 11.1%; p = 0.81). Compared with standard therapy, non-invasive ventilation was associated with greater reductions (treatment difference, 95% confidence intervals) in breathlessness (visual analogue scale score 0.7, 0.2-1.3; p = 0.008) and heart rate (4/min, 1-6; p = 0.004) and improvement in acidosis (pH 0.03, 0.02-0.04; p < 0.001) and hypercapnia (0.7 kPa, 0.4-0.9; p < 0.001) at 1 hour. There were no treatment-related adverse events or differences in other secondary outcomes such as myocardial infarction rate, length of hospital stay, critical care admission rate and requirement for endotracheal intubation. Economic evaluation showed that mean costs and QALYs up to 6 months were 3023 pounds and 0.202 for standard therapy, 3224 pounds and 0.213 for CPAP, and 3208 pounds and 0.210 for NIPPV. Modelling of lifetime costs and QALYs produced values of 15,764 pounds and 1.597 for standard therapy, 17,525 pounds and 1.841 for CPAP, and 17,021 pounds and 1.707 for NIPPV. These results suggest that both CPAP and NIPPV accrue more QALYs but at higher cost than standard therapy. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS Non-invasive ventilatory support delivered by either CPAP or NIPPV safely provides earlier improvement and resolution of breathlessness, respiratory distress and metabolic abnormality. However, this does not translate into improved short- or longer-term survival. We recommend that CPAP or NIPPV should be considered as adjunctive therapy in patients with severe acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema in the presence of severe respiratory distress or when there is a failure to improve with pharmacological therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN07448447.
The Lancet | 2015
Vipul Jairath; Brennan C Kahan; Alasdair Gray; Caroline J Doré; Ana Mora; Martin W. James; Adrian J. Stanley; Simon M. Everett; Helen Dallal; John Greenaway; Ivan Le Jeune; Melanie Darwent; Nicholas I. Church; Ian Reckless; Renate Hodge; Claire Dyer; Sarah Meredith; Charlotte Llewelyn; K. R. Palmer; Richard F. Logan; Simon Travis; Timothy S. Walsh; Michael F. Murphy
BACKGROUND Transfusion thresholds for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding are controversial. So far, only three small, underpowered studies and one single-centre trial have been done. Findings from the single-centre trial showed reduced mortality with restrictive red blood cell (RBC) transfusion. We aimed to assess whether a multicentre, cluster randomised trial is a feasible method to substantiate or refute this finding. METHODS In this pragmatic, open-label, cluster randomised feasibility trial, done in six university hospitals in the UK, we enrolled all patients aged 18 years or older with new presentations of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding, irrespective of comorbidity, except for exsanguinating haemorrhage. We randomly assigned hospitals (1:1) with a computer-generated randomisation sequence (random permuted block size of 6, without stratification or matching) to either a restrictive (transfusion when haemoglobin concentration fell below 80 g/L) or liberal (transfusion when haemoglobin concentration fell below 100 g/L) RBC transfusion policy. Neither patients nor investigators were masked to treatment allocation. Feasibility outcomes were recruitment rate, protocol adherence, haemoglobin concentration, RBC exposure, selection bias, and information to guide design and economic evaluation of the phase 3 trial. Main exploratory clinical outcomes were further bleeding and mortality at day 28. We did analyses on all enrolled patients for whom an outcome was available. This trial is registered, ISRCTN85757829 and NCT02105532. FINDINGS Between Sept 3, 2012, and March 1, 2013, we enrolled 936 patients across six hospitals (403 patients in three hospitals with a restrictive policy and 533 patients in three hospitals with a liberal policy). Recruitment rate was significantly higher for the liberal than for the restrictive policy (62% vs 55%; p=0·04). Despite some baseline imbalances, Rockall and Blatchford risk scores were identical between policies. Protocol adherence was 96% (SD 10) in the restrictive policy vs 83% (25) in the liberal policy (difference 14%; 95% CI 7-21; p=0·005). Mean last recorded haemoglobin concentration was 116 (SD 24) g/L for patients on the restrictive policy and 118 (20) g/L for those on the liberal policy (difference -2·0 [95% CI -12·0 to 7·0]; p=0·50). Fewer patients received RBCs on the restrictive policy than on the liberal policy (restrictive policy 133 [33%] vs liberal policy 247 [46%]; difference -12% [95% CI -35 to 11]; p=0·23), with fewer RBC units transfused (mean 1·2 [SD 2·1] vs 1·9 [2·8]; difference -0·7 [-1·6 to 0·3]; p=0·12), although these differences were not significant. We noted no significant difference in clinical outcomes. INTERPRETATION A cluster randomised design led to rapid recruitment, high protocol adherence, separation in degree of anaemia between groups, and non-significant reduction in RBC transfusion in the restrictive policy. A large cluster randomised trial to assess the effectiveness of transfusion strategies for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding is both feasible and essential before clinical practice guidelines change to recommend restrictive transfusion for all patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. FUNDING NHS Blood and Transplant Research and Development.
The Lancet | 2014
D. Nicholas Bateman; James W. Dear; H K Ruben Thanacoody; Simon H. L. Thomas; Michael Eddleston; Euan A. Sandilands; Judy Coyle; Jamie G Cooper; Aryelly Rodriguez; Isabella Butcher; Steff Lewis; A. D. Bastiaan Vliegenthart; Aravindan Veiraiah; David J. Webb; Alasdair Gray
BACKGROUND Paracetamol poisoning is common worldwide. It is treated with intravenous acetylcysteine, but the standard regimen is complex and associated with frequent adverse effects related to concentration, which can cause treatment interruption. We aimed to ascertain whether adverse effects could be reduced with either a shorter modified acetylcysteine schedule, antiemetic pretreatment, or both. METHODS We undertook a double-blind, randomised factorial study at three UK hospitals, between Sept 6, 2010, and Dec 31, 2012. We randomly allocated patients with acute paracetamol overdose to either the standard intravenous acetylcysteine regimen (duration 20·25 h) or a shorter (12 h) modified protocol, with or without intravenous ondansetron pretreatment (4 mg). Masking was achieved by infusion of 5% dextrose (during acetylcysteine delivery) or saline (for antiemetic pretreatment). Randomisation was done via the internet and included a minimisation procedure by prognostic factors. The primary outcome was absence of vomiting, retching, or need for rescue antiemetic treatment at 2 h. Prespecified secondary outcomes included a greater than 50% increase in alanine aminotransferase activity over the admission value. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier NCT01050270). FINDINGS Of 222 patients who underwent randomisation, 217 were assessable 2 h after the start of acetylcysteine treatment. Vomiting, retching, or need for rescue antiemetic treatment at 2 h was reported in 39 of 108 patients assigned to the shorter modified protocol compared with 71 of 109 allocated to the standard acetylcysteine regimen (adjusted odds ratio 0·26, 97·5% CI 0·13-0·52; p<0·0001), and in 45 of 109 patients who received ondansetron compared with 65 of 108 allocated placebo (0·41, 0·20-0·80; p=0·003). Severe anaphylactoid reactions were recorded in five patients assigned to the shorter modified acetylcysteine regimen versus 31 who were allocated to the standard protocol (adjusted common odds ratio 0·23, 97·5% CI 0·12-0·43; p<0·0001). The proportion of patients with a 50% increase in alanine aminotransferase activity did not differ between the standard (9/110) and shorter modified (13/112) regimens (adjusted odds ratio 0·60, 97·5% CI 0·20-1·83); however, the proportion was higher with ondansetron (16/111) than with placebo (6/111; 3·30, 1·01-10·72; p=0·024). INTERPRETATION In patients with paracetamol poisoning, a 12 h modified acetylcysteine regimen resulted in less vomiting, fewer anaphylactoid reactions, and reduced need for treatment interruption. This study was not powered to detect non-inferiority of the shorter protocol versus the standard approach; therefore, further research is needed to confirm the efficacy of the 12 h modified acetylcysteine regimen. FUNDING Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government.