Albert S. Paulson

Risk arbitrage opportunities in petroleum futures spreads

This article investigates the long‐term pricing relationship among crude oil, unleaded gasoline, and heating oil futures prices, and finds that these commodities futures prices are cointegrated. The study finds that the spreads between crude oil and its end products are stationary. Furthermore, this article investigates the risk arbitrage opportunities in three types of popularly traded petroleum futures spreads and finds that historically profitable risk arbitrage opportunities existed and were statistically significant. However, one cannot be certain that these opportunities still exist. The research also finds that moving averages are valid test variables for measuring spreads. Statistical and tabular constructions are used to illustrate findings.

Polychlorinated biphenyls: influence on birthweight and gestation

Fifty-one infants born to women employed at two capacitor manufacturing facilities with a history of high exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) had a mean birthweight of 153 grams less than that of 337 infants born to women who had worked in low-exposure areas (90 per cent confidence interval, -286 to -20 g); mean gestational age was 6.6 days shorter in the high-exposure infants (90 per cent CI, -10.3 to -2.9 days). After adjusting for gestational age, the difference in birthweight was markedly reduced, indicating that the observed reduction in birthweight was due mainly to shortening of gestational age in the high-exposure group.

Evaluating Radical Innovation Portfolios

OVERVIEW: Radical innovation in large firms is a risky endeavor, exacerbated by high levels of uncertainty and long cycle times. Moreover, management lacks evaluation tools that are appropriate for the degree of ambiguity of the information available from these types of projects. Add to this the difficulties of managing in the context of the large firm where many processes are tuned toward repetition and continuous improvement, and it becomes clear that commercialization of radical innovation (RI) is a difficult proposition at best. Portfolio managers will almost invariably build a team, learn appropriate processes, clarify their mandate within the company, generate initial projects, and begin to enrich their portfolios, only to have their efforts cancelled out due to an unsatisfactory financial return. The “what have you done for me lately?” question plagues these groups, and ends up costing the company investment of resources in opportunities that are never leveraged. Having an evaluation tool to assess the relative values of projects within the context of the entire radical innovation portfolio, and to track changes in the relative value of the portfolio over time, can help RI portfolio managers articulate their contribution to the companys growth strategy and can aid in innovation strategy development.

Cost of Capital: The Managerial Perspective:

This article examines the impact of the cost of capital on managerial decision making. Senior executives from four capital-intensive industries were interviewed. One group of executives (Group 1) argued that the cost of capital has a major impact on their ability to compete and directly constrains their investments in capital equipment and/or R&D. A second group (Group 2) expressed a roughly opposite view, arguing that the cost of capital is not one of the primary factors in their decision making. Two factors appear to account for this difference: Group 2 firms tend to be in better financial condition than Group 1, and Group 2 firms are technology leaders in their respective markets, whereas Group 1 firms are not.

Emerging Technologies in Emerging Markets: Challenges for New Product Professionals

ABSTRACTDeveloping and commercializing emerging technologies in emerging markets pose an especially difficult challenge for new product professionals. Conventional marketing tools that are typically prescribed to assist the new product manager are severely limited for this extreme form of innovation. This article presents study results and discusses which marketing tools work and which do not for this important yet vexing class of innovations.

Phase-Phase Switching, Suite Flashovers: Weather Correction Factors

Weather correction factors for spacings of 3 to 12 feet have been obtained from phase-phase switching surge flashover tests. New statistical methods of analysis of flashover data were used to show that correction factors published for phase-ground flashovers are inadequate for phase-phase. Correction factors for phase-phase flashovers calculated from relative air density, humidity, and relative humidity are given.

Phase-Phase Switching Surge Flashovers: Design Data

Information for designing the switching surge strength of phase-phase gaps on transmission lines is given. The data was obtained from flashover tests on parallel conductor gaps of 3 to 12 feet.

Cigarette Smoke : Cancer Risk at Low Doses

The regulation of exposure to low-dose carcinogens is beset with difficulties and uncertainties. Ethical considerations rule out the use of human experiments to determine risk from low dose carcinogens. Even if animal experiments are used, a number of animals would be required to test for carcinogens at low doses. Nevertheless, safe levels of human exposure must be set. Thus, methods based on extrapolation from animal experiments with a relatively small number of animals exposed to high dosages of potential carcinogens are being adopted as the basis for regulating human exposure to low dosages of carcinogens [1]. Since it has been impossible to determine a dosage level at which there is no cancer hazard, an alternate “virtually safe” dose method has become common. The virtually safe dose is a dose at which the cancer risk is no greater than some very small risk, say, a one-in 105, 106, or 108 chance of developing cancer in a lifetime. For example, an action level of 100 μg/liter for total trihalomethanes in drinking water has been proposed by the EPA as prudent for these animal carcinogens [2]: the risk of cancer resulting from low-dose x-ray exposure has been determined in this way and used to establish acceptable x-ray dosage levels for mammography screening [3].

The Statistical Distribution of the Phase-Phase Ratio Alpha

As transmission lines evolve towards new portal structures and hence larger conductors and smaller phase spacings, clearances for phase-phase switching surges are more likely to be required, although the larger number of variables makes phase-phase designing much more complex than phase-ground. To help simplify phase-phase design procedures, a factor alpha, introduced several years ago, provides an approximate adjustment for several variables simultaneously.