Albert Soret

Effect of High-Resolution Meteorological Forcing on Nearshore Wave and Current Model Performance

Accurate representation of wind forcing and mean sea level pressure is important for modeling waves and surges. This is especially important for complex coastal zone areas. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been run at 12-, 4-, and 1.33-km resolutionfor a storm event over the Irish Sea. The outputs were used to force the coupled hydrodynamic and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS)‐Wave Model (WAM) and the effect on storm surge and waves has been assessed. An improvement was observed in the WRF model pressure and wind speed when moving from 12- to 4-km resolution with errors in wind speed decreasing more than 10% on average. When moving from 4 to 1.33km no further significant improvement was observed. The atmospheric model results at 12 and 4km were then applied to the ocean model. Wave direction was seen to improve with increased ocean model resolution,andhigher-resolutionforcingwasfoundtogenerallyincreasethewaveheightovertheIrishSeaby up to 40cm in places. Improved clustering of wave direction was observed when 4-km meteorological forcing was used. Large differences were seen in the coastal zone because of the improved representation of the coastline and, in turn, the atmospheric boundary layer. The combination of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and a coupled wave‐surge model gave the best result.

Comprehensive air quality planning for the Barcelona Metropolitan Area through traffic management

Abstract This work analyses the projected improvements in urban air quality for 2015 in the coastal city of Barcelona (north–eastern Iberian Peninsula). To do so, the WRF–ARW/HERMES/CMAQ modelling system is applied at very high resolution (1 km x 1 km and 1 hour). The analysis is done by projecting the emissions of a base–case scenario defined for 2004 to three different future scenarios for 2015, each one representing a different set of traffic mobility management measures. Such measures integrate re–distribution of the current urban road network into “super– square blocks” as well as redirecting the traffic. The study is made more consistent by considering specific projections per sector of emission, mainly focusing on the vehicular fleet (introduction of technological improvements and the use of alternative fuels). The results of comparing the base–case versus the future scenarios indicate that the mobility management measures, technological improvements, use of alternative fuels and projection of emissions from different sectors will help to reduce the mean concentrations of atmospheric pollutants in downtown Barcelona, and also in the outskirts and in the metropolitan area.

Integrated assessment of air pollution using observations and modelling in Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands)

The present study aims to analyse the atmospheric dynamics of the Santa Cruz de Tenerife region (Tenerife, Canary Islands). This area is defined by the presence of anthropogenic emissions (from a refinery, a port and road traffic) and by very specific meteorological and orographic conditions-it is a coastal area with a complex topography in which there is an interaction of regional atmospheric dynamics and a low thermal inversion layer. These factors lead to specific atmospheric pollution episodes, particularly in relation to SO2 and PM10. We applied a methodology to study these dynamics based on two complementary approaches: 1) the analysis of the observations from the air quality network stations and 2) simulation of atmospheric dynamics using the WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b and WRF-ARW/HYSPLIT modelling systems with a high spatial resolution (1×1 km(2)). The results of our study show that the refinery plume plays an important role in the maximum SO2 observed levels. The area of maximum impact of the refinery is confined to a radius of 3 km around this installation. A cluster analysis performed for the period: 1998-2011 identified six synoptic situations as predominant in the area. The episodes of air pollution by SO2 occur mainly in those with more limited dispersive conditions, such as the northeastern recirculation, the northwestern recirculation and the western advection, which represent 33.70%, 11.23% and 18.63% of the meteorological situations affecting the study area in the year 2011, respectively. In the case of particulate matter, Saharan dust intrusions result in episodes with high levels of PM10 that may exceed the daily limit value in all measurement station; these episodes occur when the synoptic situation is from the east (3.29% of the situations during the year 2011).

An emission processing system for air quality modelling in the Mexico City metropolitan area: Evaluation and comparison of the MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions

This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km2) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO2, O3, VOC and PM2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NOx and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The systems performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O3 peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA.

Estimation of future emission scenarios for analysing the impact of traffic mobility on a large Mediterranean conurbation in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (Spain)

Emission modelling permits us to quantitatively assess the effects of emission abatement strategies. In urban areas, such strategies are designed mainly to reduce the emissions from the on–road traffic sector. This work analyses the impact of several mobility strategies on urban emissions in the coastal city of Barcelona, Spain, when the High Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES) is applied at a very high resolution (1 km × 1 km and 1 h). The analysis was conducted by projecting the emissions data obtained from a base case scenario in 2004 onto three future scenarios set in 2015, where each future scenario represented a set of traffic mobility management measures. Specific developments were considered per emission sector, including power generation, industrial activities, domestic– commercial, solvents, on–road traffic, biogenic emissions, ports and airports, to best compare the present base case scenario with the future mobility scenarios generated for 2015. These emission scenarios for 2015 take into account the population projections and the variations in port and airport activities among other factors, while the main focus is on the on–road traffic sector, the types of vehicles used, such as technologically improved buses and hybrid vehicles, as well as the types of fuels used, including natural gas and biofuels. The results of the emission model indicate that the mobility management strategies, the technological improvements and the use of alternative fuels reduce the emissions from on–road traffic by approximately 75% (in terms of nitrogen oxides emission reductions in the city centre of Barcelona). This decrease leads to a 35% reduction in overall nitrogen oxides emissions, even if some sectors individually experience increases based on their specific projections.

Climate Change Communication and User Engagement: A Tool to Anticipate Climate Change

It is well known that climate change will have effects on society at the end of the century. However, effects are also being perceived in the near future, since climate is already changing and businesses are vulnerable to these medium-range changes. Climate predictions at these medium-range time horizons can help different application areas to anticipate the effects and adapt to climate change. In this context, the concept of climate services arises with the aim to make climate information user-oriented. Despite the recent effort to develop underpinning science for climate services, their usefulness is still not well-known and they have been barely applied in decision-making. Communication and user engagement are fundamental to stimulate the use of climate information by users. This paper presents examples of products tailored to the needs of users in different sectors, providing effective solutions to visualize probabilistic information. Described examples include the visualization tool Project Ukko (http://project-ukko.net/) that provides robust information of the future variability in wind power resources for the renewable energy sector; and an online platform offering the most comprehensive view of the upcoming hurricane activity (www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.org). The latter was designed in close collaboration between climate scientists on one side and representatives of the re/insurance sector and web designers on the other side. Climate services for agriculture through systematic involvement of users in the climate service co-production are illustrated with the experience of the SECTEUR project (https://climate.copernicus.eu/secteur).

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

This work was funded by the EU projects S2S4E (GA 776787), EUCP (GA 776613), CLIM4ENERGY (C3S_441_Lot2_CEA), EUCLEIA (GA 607085), INDECIS (GA 690462), and MEDSCOPE (GA 690462). Omar Bellprat has been funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) Living Planet Fellowship Programme under the project VERITAS-CCI.We thank Daniel Cabezon for helping and informing on the wind drought episode and Javier Garcia-Serrano for the insights on the interpretation of the physical processes. All the analyses have been performed using the statistical software R (R Core Team, 2015). The startR and s2dverification R packages have been used to read data sets, compute EOFs, and plot maps. Model output from the numerical experiments can be accessed through EUDAT facilities at the link http://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.71078 a8618414e9b906cfa6bb7d2cdab. The reanalysis data and models used are listed in the references. We also acknowledge Javier Vegas and Nicolau Manubens for technical support, as well as the EC-Earth consortium for the model development.

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

The present developments in 10 m wind seasonal forecast products have lead to a growth in the number of studies analysing different aspects of both its predictability and applicability. However, there is still a lack of global studies analysing the statistical properties of the probability distribution of 10 m wind speed comparing the seasonal forecast systems with the widely used reanalysis products. To fill this gap we have studied the properties of the probability distributions of 10 m wind speed from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts System 4 seasonal forecast system. We have focused on two seasons, JJA and DJF, considering both their interannual and intraseasonal variability. The 10 m wind speed distribution has been characterized in terms of the four main moments of the probability distribution (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis). We have also computed the coefficient of variation to identify the regions with the higher wind variability and the Shapiro–Wilks goodness of fit test to assess their normality. This set of parameters is important to provide useful climate information in wind energy decision-making processes that use simple assumptions of the wind speed frequency distribution to properly estimate the wind energy potential. Besides, this study also illustrates where the discrepancies of the distributions of the seasonal predictions and the reference dataset are higher and, thus, which might need special attention from a bias adjustment perspective.