Alberto Franco Pozzolo

Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the investment decisions of a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. The results support the view that a depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on investment through the revenue channel, and a negative effect through the cost channel. The magnitude of these effects varies over time with changes in the firms external orientation, as measured by the share of foreign sales over total sales and the reliance on imported inputs. Consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on investment is stronger for firms with low monopoly power, facing a high degree of import penetration in the domestic market, and of a small size. We also provide evidence that the degree of substitutability between domestically produced and imported inputs influences the effect through the expenditure side.

The pricing effect of certification on syndicated loans

To verify if a delegated monitor can certify its ability to perform its assigned tasks, we test whether syndicated loans in which a larger share of the facility is retained by the arranger have lower interest rates. For a large sample of syndicated loans in over 80 countries we find that this certification effect exists and is greater for facilities characterized by greater due diligence and monitoring efforts. Further, for listed companies the announcement effect of the new loan on the stock price is an increasing function of the portions of the loan retained by the arranger.

Research, Development and Human Capital Accumulation

We develop an endogenous growth model that integrates research and development (RD it is independent of research activity which, itself, is driven by human capital accumulation. In accordance with recent empirical evidence, the model implies that long-run growth is both independent of scale effects and invariant to a wide range of policies.

The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on the firms exposure to foreign sales and its reliance on imported inputs. Further, we show that, for given international orientation, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Further, wage adjustments are also shown to provide a channel through which firms react to currency shocks. Finally, gross job flows within the firm are found to depend on exchange rate fluctuations, although the effect on job creation is predominant.

FDI and Growth: What Cross-Country Industry Data Say

We simulate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of different fiscal consolidation scenarios in Italy using a medium scale two-areas dynamic general equilibrium currency-union model. Differently from similar models, ours is rich in the terms of fiscal features. We assume distortionary taxes (on labor income, capital income and consumption) and welfare-enhancing public expenditure. We distinguish between public spending on final goods and services, public employment and transfers to households. The scenarios that we consider envisage a decreases in the public debt to GDP ratio of 10 percentage points in 5 years. Based on our simulations we find that: first, fiscal distortions are quantitatively significant; second, a consolidation strategy that reduces expenditure and simultaneously lowers tax rates has a positive effect on long-run GDP of 5% to 7% and on welfare of 4% to 7% of the initial levels, depending on the composition of the adjustment; third, consumption and investment are stable or grow on impact and along the path to the new steady state; finally, spillovers to the rest of the euro area are expansionary and sizeable both in the long run and along the transition.

Bank Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions: Causes, Consequences, and Recent Trends

In the past fifteen years, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have had an ever increasing role in the process of bank internationalization. Although a consensus view has developed on the determinants of a bank’s decision to expand abroad and on the determinants of the patterns of expansion, the debate on the consequences of foreign bank presence is still open. The aim of this chapter is twofold. Firstly, it discusses the major results of the empirical literature studying the determinants, the patterns, and the consequences of bank foreign expansion. Secondly, it studies whether the determinants of bank foreign expansions have changed through time, estimating an econometric model of the patterns of cross-border bank M&As between 1990 and 2006.

Choosing Between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages

This paper estimates the determinants of households’ choice between fixed rate (FRM) and adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) contracts, using the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Contrary to the predictions of the theoretical literature, the analysis shows that most household characteristics proxying for exposure to other (non-mortgagerelated) risks and for individual risk aversion are irrelevant for the choice. This, in turn, crucially depends on the relative price of the mortgages and on whether the household is liquidity constrained. Liquidity constrained households find ARMs particularly attractive because their initial payments are generally lowest, ceteris paribus. This is so despite some evidence that the premium that lenders charge over their cost of funds is substantially higher on ARMs than on FRMs. Taken together, the evidence suggests that ARM holders do not fully take into account the risk of a rise of the reference interest rates. On the other hand, lenders price quite expensively this risk and borrowers end up paying a high price for the benefit of low initial payments.

The Italian banking system: Facts and interpretations

The paper compares the essential features of the Italian banking system with those of the other large euro-area countries. The analysis focuses on banks’ size, ownership and competitiveness, their role in financing firms, the composition of their balance sheets and their degree of internationalization, profitability and terms for customers. Within this overall framework the paper examines the banking system’s response to the financial crisis of 2007-09 and subsequent developments. The progress made in decades past is recalled and further necessary steps set out.

Do domestic and cross-border M&As differ? Cross-country evidence from the banking sector

Are the drivers of domestic and cross-border M&As in the banking sector different? Despite the intense research on bank M&As in the last decade, the attention paid to this issue is surprisingly limited. We fill this gap studying the ex-ante determinants of national and international acquisitions in the banking sector in an unbalanced panel of nearly 1,000 banks from 50 world countries, from 1992 to 2007. Our results show that size and profitability have a stronger impact on the probability that a bank is a bidder in a cross-border deal than in a domestic deal. Consistent with the findings of the literature on the determinants of the internationalization of manufacturing firms, international expansion in the banking sector is therefore easier for countries with a number of large “national champions�?, that are more capable to overcome the fixed costs of internationalization and have a stronger incentive to diversify the idiosyncratic risks of their domestic activities.

What Do Foreigners Want? Evidence from Targets in Bank Cross-Border M&As

Given the recent traumatic events in the world’s banking industry it is important to understand what drives bankers to create larger and larger, often multinational, banking groups. In this paper we investigate whether the targets in cross-border bank MA this probability is based upon both bank specific and country specific characteristics. The sample also naturally includes banks that were not involved in any M&A deal, this set of banks acts as a control sample for the study. We then estimate a multinomial model that distinguishes between (i) targets in domestic operations, (ii) targets in cross-border operations and (iii) non-targets. The main message of the paper is that, with few exceptions, domestic and foreign investors target similar banks. In particular, contrary to what one might expect, bank size does not affect differently the probability of being a domestic or a cross-border target, but it has a positive and highly significant effect in both cases. What differs between national and international M&As are the characteristics of the countries where banks operate. On average, banking systems characterized by lower leverage, higher cost inefficiency and lower liquidity are more likely to be targets of cross-border acquisitions, while none of this characteristics affects the likelihood of being acquired domestically.