Alberto Troccoli

AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions

Sensitivity experiments using a coupled model initialized from analysed atmospheric and oceanic observations are used to investigate the potential for interannual-to-decadal predictability. The potential for extending seasonal predictions to longer time scales is explored using the same coupled model configuration and initialization procedure as used for seasonal prediction. It is found that, despite model drift, climatic signals on interannual-to-decadal time scales appear to be detectable. Two climatic states have been chosen: one starting in 1965, i.e. ahead of a period of global cooling, and the other in 1994, ahead of a period of global warming. The impact of initial conditions and of the different levels of greenhouse gases are isolated in order to gain insights into the source of predictability.

Long-Term Wind Speed Trends over Australia

AbstractAccurate estimates of long-term linear trends of wind speed provide a useful indicator for circulation changes in the atmosphere and are invaluable for the planning and financing of sectors such as wind energy. Here a large number of wind observations over Australia and reanalysis products are analyzed to compute such trends. After a thorough quality control of the observations, it is found that the wind speed trends for 1975–2006 and 1989–2006 over Australia are sensitive to the height of the station: they are largely negative for the 2-m data but are predominantly positive for the 10-m data. The mean relative trend at 2 m is −0.10 ± 0.03% yr−1 (−0.36 ± 0.04% yr−1) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006) period, whereas at 10 m it is 0.90 ± 0.03% yr−1 (0.69 ± 0.04% yr−1) for the 1975–2006 (1989–2006) period. Also, at 10 m light winds tend to increase more rapidly than the mean winds, whereas strong winds increase less rapidly than the mean winds; at 2 m the trends in both light and strong winds vary in lin...

A Way Forward for Seasonal Climate Services

The enthusiasm for engaging the challenges of Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, both within the disciplines of physical and social sciences and at their interface, was well demonstrated through the energetic engagement of all during the May to June 2005 NATO ASI course, upon which this book is based. Several panel sessions were held during the course, which permitted everyone to offer views within an informal setting; some, not reflected in the main body of the book, are incorporated in this chapter. Little stays stationary in such a fast-developing field, and so, to provide the most advanced position at publication, this summarising chapter has included some of the latest development to supplement the material drawn from the course presentations and the panel discussions. Additionally, a view to the future is offered so as to provide further stimulation to those interested in the fascinating field of Seasonal to Interannual Climate.

Weather matters for energy

Part I: Why Should the Energy Industry be Concerned About Weather Patterns?.- A new era for Energy.- Vulnerability of Energy Systems in a Changing Climate.- Climatic Changes: Looking Back, Looking Forward.- Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation - an Overview of the IPCC Special Report.- Part II: How is the Energy Industry Meteorology-proofing Itself?.- Managing Weather and Climate Risks: a View from the Energy Sector.- Improving Resilience Challenges and Linkages of the Energy Industry in a Changing Climate.- Combining Meteorological and Electrical Engineering Expertise to Solve Energy Management Problems.- Weather and Climate Impacts on Australias National Electricity Market.- Bioenergy, Weather and Climate Change in Africa: Leading Issues and Policy Options.- Part III: What can Meteorology offer to the Energy Industry?.- Weather and climate information delivery within national and international frameworks.- Meteorology and the energy sector.- Earth observations in support of the Energy sector.- Emerging Meteorological Requirements to Support High Penetrations of Variable Renewable Energy Sources: Solar Energy.- Current status and challenges in wind energy assessment.- Wind Power Forecasting.- Regional Climate Modelling for the Energy Sector.- In Search of the Best Possible Weather Forecast for the Energy Industry.- Part IV: How is the Energy Industry applying State-of-the-Science Meteorology?.- A probabilistic view of weather, climate and the energy industry.- Weather & climate and the power sector: needs, recent developments and challenges.- Unlocking the potential of renewable energy with storage.- Improving NWP Forecasts for the Wind Energy Sector.- Overview On Irradiance And Photovoltaic Power Prediction.- Spatial and temporal variability in the UK wind resource: Scales, controlling factors and implications for wind power output.- Reducing the energy consumption of existing, residential buildings, for climate change and scarce resource scenarios in 2050.- Energy & Meteorology: Partnership for the future.- Index.

Weather and Climate Risk Management in the Energy Sector

W eather and climate considerations within the context of both climate change adaptation and mitigation are becoming important elements in policy and strategic planning for the energy sector. Corporate energy markets and operations are progressively factoring impacts of climate change into their management and planning, recognizing that climate is a significant component of risk management. Information from weather forecasts is routinely employed in the energy sector (by producers, traders, and regulators) to assist in decision making. Such information is used for several purposes, from the direct pricing of energy to the trading of energy and financial contracts. The energy decision process is now turning to other climate information, such as seasonal, decadal, and climate change forecasts. The need for more and better weather/climate information will grow as decision makers address an array of issues, from extreme events to emerging climate change regulations. In addition, weather and climate information is a key element in the development and use of renewable energy resources such as wind and solar power as well as hydropower. An improved understanding of what climate information can and cannot provide, how it might be used in context, and how communication can be made more effective will certainly help the interaction between climate scientists and energy experts. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Advanced Research Workshop created an opportunity to bring together experts in these fields to address the outstanding issues not only with the use of weather and climate information by the energy industry but also with communication between the two sectors. About 20 presentations covering fundamentals, practices, needs, and impediments in the use of NATO AdvANced ReseARch WORkshOp

Promoting New Links Between Energy and Meteorology

T he growing body of knowledge and experience in weather and climate risk management in the energy industry has spurred a rapidly growing research interest at the nexus between weather, climate, and energy (Troccoli 2010; Troccoli et al. 2010; Ebinger and Vergara 2011; Marquis 2011). Although this increased attention has been stimulated by a renewed and fervent interest in renewable energy sources, weather and climate information is also critical to managing the energy supply from other energy sectors (e.g., offshore oil operations) as well as understanding and estimating energy demand. Until recently, such applied research was discussed in specialized sessions during conferences organized by industry-specific organizations related to wind energy (e.g., American Wind Energy Association), solar energy [e.g., Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems (SolarPACES)], and meteorology (e.g., European Meteorological Society). To take advantage of the substantial overlap between these energy activities and their use of weather and climate information, the International Conference Energy and Meteorology (ICEM) 2011 (www.icem2011.org/) was convened in Queensland, Australia. The objective was to provide a dedicated forum where scientists, engineers, economists, policy makers, and other specialists and practitioners involved in research or implementation activities at the intersection between weather, climate, and energy could discuss recent research findings and emerging practices ranging from operational activities to longterm investment planning and to policy making. Such discussions were framed within the context of all energy sector uses, including climate change mitigation and weather/climate risk management practices. The four expected outcomes of this conference were as follows:

WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR

Weather and climate forecasts are potentially valuable sources of information for use in risk management tools. It is important however to be aware of their limitations (several approximations go into a forecasting model) as well as of opportunities to enhance their information content (e.g. through understanding the underlying physical processes which lead to a given forecast). This chapter explores, at a rather high level, the physical basis of forecasts, the tools used for producing them and the importance of assessing their skill. An interesting case of a seasonal forecast and its impact on the energy market is also discussed.

Potential role of renewable energy in water desalination in Australia

With projected increases in population and urbanisation in Australia, the sustainable supply of water and energy over the medium to long term will be an important challenge. In this context, meeting a part of the growing demand for urban water may involve reliance upon desalinated water in the future. Moreover, the feasibility and viability of renewable energy sources for water desalination will be of policy importance, particularly in a potentially low carbon Australian economy. In this article, we analyse the potential applicability of solar and wind energy to provide power for water desalination. In two illustrative examples, we assess the feasibility of supplying 3% of Sydney’s projected total water consumption (supplied at an average rate of 24.7 Gl/yr) and 5% of Sydney’s projected water consumption (supplied at an average rate of 32.7 Gl/yr) over a 15-yr period (2011–2025) using a photovoltaic (PV) solar powered (130 MW) and a hybrid (PV solar and wind energy) powered (205 MW) reverse osmosis (RO) d...

What Does the Energy Industry Require from Meteorology

The energy sector significantly depends on weather and climate variability, which impacts both demand and supply, at all timescales. Over the next decades, climate change mitigation and adaptation will lead to an overhaul in energy systems, to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Low carbon energy generation is key to facing this challenge, but its renewable part—mainly from wind, solar and hydro power—will even increase the exposure of the sector to weather and climate factors. Energy companies can assess their preparation to tackle the impact of weather volatility on their operations by running a weather-readiness assessment. This chapter provides an overview of the energy sector today, together with future scenarios and challenges. The weather-readiness concept is then presented in detail and demonstrates that stronger collaboration between the energy industry and the meteorological community is key to reducing the risks posed by climate variability and change, and allow a more effective integration of high-quality weather and climate information into energy sector activities, to better manage power systems on all timescales from a few days to several decades.