Laurent Dubus

Weather matters for energy

Part I: Why Should the Energy Industry be Concerned About Weather Patterns?.- A new era for Energy.- Vulnerability of Energy Systems in a Changing Climate.- Climatic Changes: Looking Back, Looking Forward.- Renewable Energy and Climate Change Mitigation - an Overview of the IPCC Special Report.- Part II: How is the Energy Industry Meteorology-proofing Itself?.- Managing Weather and Climate Risks: a View from the Energy Sector.- Improving Resilience Challenges and Linkages of the Energy Industry in a Changing Climate.- Combining Meteorological and Electrical Engineering Expertise to Solve Energy Management Problems.- Weather and Climate Impacts on Australias National Electricity Market.- Bioenergy, Weather and Climate Change in Africa: Leading Issues and Policy Options.- Part III: What can Meteorology offer to the Energy Industry?.- Weather and climate information delivery within national and international frameworks.- Meteorology and the energy sector.- Earth observations in support of the Energy sector.- Emerging Meteorological Requirements to Support High Penetrations of Variable Renewable Energy Sources: Solar Energy.- Current status and challenges in wind energy assessment.- Wind Power Forecasting.- Regional Climate Modelling for the Energy Sector.- In Search of the Best Possible Weather Forecast for the Energy Industry.- Part IV: How is the Energy Industry applying State-of-the-Science Meteorology?.- A probabilistic view of weather, climate and the energy industry.- Weather & climate and the power sector: needs, recent developments and challenges.- Unlocking the potential of renewable energy with storage.- Improving NWP Forecasts for the Wind Energy Sector.- Overview On Irradiance And Photovoltaic Power Prediction.- Spatial and temporal variability in the UK wind resource: Scales, controlling factors and implications for wind power output.- Reducing the energy consumption of existing, residential buildings, for climate change and scarce resource scenarios in 2050.- Energy & Meteorology: Partnership for the future.- Index.

Promoting New Links Between Energy and Meteorology

T he growing body of knowledge and experience in weather and climate risk management in the energy industry has spurred a rapidly growing research interest at the nexus between weather, climate, and energy (Troccoli 2010; Troccoli et al. 2010; Ebinger and Vergara 2011; Marquis 2011). Although this increased attention has been stimulated by a renewed and fervent interest in renewable energy sources, weather and climate information is also critical to managing the energy supply from other energy sectors (e.g., offshore oil operations) as well as understanding and estimating energy demand. Until recently, such applied research was discussed in specialized sessions during conferences organized by industry-specific organizations related to wind energy (e.g., American Wind Energy Association), solar energy [e.g., Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems (SolarPACES)], and meteorology (e.g., European Meteorological Society). To take advantage of the substantial overlap between these energy activities and their use of weather and climate information, the International Conference Energy and Meteorology (ICEM) 2011 (www.icem2011.org/) was convened in Queensland, Australia. The objective was to provide a dedicated forum where scientists, engineers, economists, policy makers, and other specialists and practitioners involved in research or implementation activities at the intersection between weather, climate, and energy could discuss recent research findings and emerging practices ranging from operational activities to longterm investment planning and to policy making. Such discussions were framed within the context of all energy sector uses, including climate change mitigation and weather/climate risk management practices. The four expected outcomes of this conference were as follows:

What Does the Energy Industry Require from Meteorology

The energy sector significantly depends on weather and climate variability, which impacts both demand and supply, at all timescales. Over the next decades, climate change mitigation and adaptation will lead to an overhaul in energy systems, to reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Low carbon energy generation is key to facing this challenge, but its renewable part—mainly from wind, solar and hydro power—will even increase the exposure of the sector to weather and climate factors. Energy companies can assess their preparation to tackle the impact of weather volatility on their operations by running a weather-readiness assessment. This chapter provides an overview of the energy sector today, together with future scenarios and challenges. The weather-readiness concept is then presented in detail and demonstrates that stronger collaboration between the energy industry and the meteorological community is key to reducing the risks posed by climate variability and change, and allow a more effective integration of high-quality weather and climate information into energy sector activities, to better manage power systems on all timescales from a few days to several decades.

Lessons Learned Establishing a Dialogue Between the Energy Industry and the Meteorological Community and a Way Forward

Work at the nexus between energy and meteorology aims at integrating meteorological information into operational risk management and strategic planning for the energy sector, at all timescales, from long-term climate change and climate variability to shorter term local weather. Weather and climate risk management can be a powerful instrument for development—not only for building energy system resilience and thus mitigating the effects of adverse events but also for ensuring that opportunities for enhanced system efficiency are exploited. The collaboration between energy and meteorology has a long history but has recently been strengthening, particularly in response to the new challenges posed by climate change and the necessary development of low-carbon energy systems. An efficient integration of high-quality weather and climate information into energy sector policy formulation, strategic planning, risk management and operational activities now, more than ever, requires improved understanding and communication between energy and meteorology specialists and decision makers.

Forging a Dialogue Between the Energy Industry and the Meteorological Community

The interplay between energy and meteorology (based on its broad meaning of weather, water and climate) has been steadily growing. For this relationship to continue flourishing, a formal structure for stakeholders to interact effectively is required. The process of formation of the World Energy & Meteorology Council (WEMC), an organisation aimed at promoting and strengthening such a relationship, is discussed in this chapter. Such a process involves building many diverse relationships, something which has been happening over several years, alongside the adoption of more formal practices such as stakeholder surveys. While the focus of this chapter is clearly on WEMC, this process could be used as a stimulus for analogous activities in the broader energy and meteorology area, specifically those at the national and regional levels, as well as similar activities straddling diverse disciplines, such as those promoted by the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).