Alec Miners

Cost‐effectiveness of hepatitis C virus antiviral treatment for injection drug user populations

Injecting drug use is the main risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in most developed countries. HCV antiviral treatment (peginterferon‐α + ribavirin) has been shown to be cost‐effective for patients with no reinfection risk. We examined the cost‐effectiveness of providing antiviral treatment for injecting drug users (IDUs) as compared with treating ex/non‐IDUs or no treatment. A dynamic model of HCV transmission and disease progression was developed, incorporating: a fixed number of antiviral treatments allocated at the mild HCV stage over 10 years, no retreatment after treatment failure, potential reinfection, and three baseline IDU HCV chronic prevalence scenarios (20%, 40%, and 60%). We performed a probabilistic cost‐utility analysis estimating long‐term costs and outcomes measured in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and calculating the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing treating IDUs, ex/non‐IDUs, or no treatment. Antiviral treatment for IDUs is the most cost‐effective option in the 20% and 40% baseline chronic prevalence settings, with ICERs compared with no treatment of £521 and £2,539 per QALY saved, respectively. Treatment of ex/non‐IDUs is dominated in these scenarios. At 60% baseline prevalence, treating ex/non‐IDUs is slightly more likely to be the more cost‐effective option (with an ICER compared with no treatment of £6,803), and treating IDUs dominated due to high reinfection. A sensitivity analysis indicates these rankings hold even when IDU sustained viral response rates as compared with ex/non‐IDUs are halved. Conclusion: Despite the possibility of reinfection, the model suggests providing antiviral treatment to IDUs is the most cost‐effective policy option in chronic prevalence scenarios less than 60%. Further research on how HCV treatment for injectors can be scaled up and its impact on prevalence is warranted. (HEPATOLOGY 2012)

Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ARTcoverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections.

Outcomes from monitoring of patients on antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings with viral load, CD4 cell count, or clinical observation alone: a computer simulation model.

BACKGROUND In lower-income countries, WHO recommends a population-based approach to antiretroviral treatment with standardised regimens and clinical decision making based on clinical status and, where available CD4 cell count, rather than viral load. Our aim was to study the potential consequences of such monitoring strategies, especially in terms of survival and resistance development. METHODS A validated computer simulation model of HIV infection and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to compare survival, use of second-line regimens, and development of resistance that result from different strategies-based on viral load, CD4 cell count, or clinical observation alone-for determining when to switch people starting antiretroviral treatment with the WHO-recommended first-line regimen of stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine to second-line antiretroviral treatment. FINDINGS Over 5 years, the predicted proportion of potential life-years survived was 83% with viral load monitoring (switch when viral load >500 copies per mL), 82% with CD4 cell count monitoring (switch at 50% drop from peak), and 82% with clinical monitoring (switch when two new WHO stage 3 events or a WHO stage 4 event occur). Corresponding values over 20 years were 67%, 64%, and 64%. Findings were robust to variations in model specification in extensive univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses. Although survival was slightly longer with viral load monitoring, this strategy was not the most cost effective. INTERPRETATION For patients on the first-line regimen of stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine the benefits of viral load or CD4 cell count monitoring over clinical monitoring alone are modest. Development of cheap and robust versions of these assays is important, but widening access to antiretrovirals-with or without laboratory monitoring-is currently the highest priority.

Focal Therapy: Patients, Interventions, and Outcomes—A Report from a Consensus Meeting

Background Focal therapy as a treatment option for localized prostate cancer (PCa) is an increasingly popular and rapidly evolving field. Objective To gather expert opinion on patient selection, interventions, and meaningful outcome measures for focal therapy in clinical practice and trial design. Design, setting, and participants Fifteen experts in focal therapy followed a modified two-stage RAND/University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Appropriateness Methodology process. All participants independently scored 246 statements prior to rescoring at a face-to-face meeting. The meeting occurred in June 2013 at the Royal Society of Medicine, London, supported by the Wellcome Trust and the UK Department of Health. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Agreement, disagreement, or uncertainty were calculated as the median panel score. Consensus was derived from the interpercentile range adjusted for symmetry level. Results and limitations Of 246 statements, 154 (63%) reached consensus. Items of agreement included the following: patients with intermediate risk and patients with unifocal and multifocal PCa are eligible for focal treatment; magnetic resonance imaging–targeted or template-mapping biopsy should be used to plan treatment; planned treatment margins should be 5 mm from the known tumor; prostate volume or age should not be a primary determinant of eligibility; foci of indolent cancer can be left untreated when treating the dominant index lesion; histologic outcomes should be defined by targeted biopsy at 1 yr; residual disease in the treated area of ≤3 mm of Gleason 3 + 3 did not need further treatment; and focal retreatment rates of ≤20% should be considered clinically acceptable but subsequent whole-gland therapy deemed a failure of focal therapy. All statements are expert opinion and therefore constitute level 5 evidence and may not reflect wider clinical consensus. Conclusions The landscape of PCa treatment is rapidly evolving with new treatment technologies. This consensus meeting provides guidance to clinicians on current expert thinking in the field of focal therapy. Patient summary In this report we present expert opinion on patient selection, interventions, and meaningful outcomes for clinicians working in focal therapy for prostate cancer.

Recreational drug use, polydrug use, and sexual behaviour in HIV-diagnosed men who have sex with men in the UK: results from the cross-sectional ASTRA study

BACKGROUND Recreational drug use in men who have sex with men (MSM) is of concern because it might be linked to the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Evidence about drug use in HIV-diagnosed MSM in the UK is limited by representativeness of the study populations. We describe patterns of drug use and associations with sexual behaviours in HIV-diagnosed MSM in the UK. METHODS We used data from the cross-sectional ASTRA study, which recruited participants aged 18 years or older with HIV from eight HIV outpatient clinics in the UK between Feb 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2012. We examined data for MSM, assessing the prevalence of recreational drug use and polydrug use in the previous 3 months and associations with sociodemographic and HIV-related factors. We examined the association of polydrug use with measures of condomless sex in the previous 3 months and with other sexual behaviours. FINDINGS Our analysis included data for 2248 MSM: 2136 (95%) were gay, 1973 (89%) were white, 1904 (85%) were on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 1682 (76%) had a viral load of 50 copies per mL or lower. 1138 (51%) used recreational drugs in the previous 3 months; 608 (27%) used nitrites, 477 (21%) used cannabis, 460 (21%) used erectile dysfunction drugs, 453 (20%) used cocaine, 280 (13%) used ketamine, 258 (12%) used 3,4-methylenedioxy-N-methylamphetamine (MDMA), 221 (10%) used gamma-hydroxybutyrate or gamma-butyrolactone, 175 (8%) used methamphetamine, and 162 (7%) used mephedrone. In the 1138 individuals who used drugs, 529 (47%) used three or more drugs and 241 (21%) used five or more. Prevalence of injection drug use was 3% (n = 68). Drug use was independently associated with younger age (p < 0·0001), not being religious (p = 0·001), having an HIV-positive stable partner (p = 0·0008), HIV-serostatus disclosure (p = 0·009), smoking (p < 0·0001), evidence of harmful alcohol drinking (p = 0·0001), and ART non-adherence (p < 0·0001). Increasing polydrug use was associated with increasing prevalence of condomless sex (prevalence range from no drug use to use of five or more drugs was 24% to 78%), condomless sex with HIV-seroconcordant partners (17% to 69%), condomless sex with HIV-serodiscordant partners (10% to 25%), and higher-HIV-risk condomless sex after taking viral load into account (4% to 16%; p ≤ 0·005 for all). Associations were similar after adjustment for sociodemographic and HIV-related factors. Methamphetamine was more strongly associated with higher-HIV-risk condomless sex than were other commonly used drugs. INTERPRETATION Polydrug use is prevalent in HIV-diagnosed MSM and is strongly associated with condomless sex. Specialist support services for MSM with HIV who use recreational drugs might be beneficial in the reduction of harm and prevention of ongoing transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research.

Prioritization of HCV treatment in the direct-acting antiviral era: An economic evaluation

Graphical abstract

How should HCV treatment be prioritized in the direct-acting antiviral era? An economic evaluation including population prevention benefits.

Graphical abstract

Health-related quality-of-life of people with HIV in the era of combination antiretroviral treatment: a cross-sectional comparison with the general population

BACKGROUND Combination antiretroviral therapy has substantially increased life-expectancy in people living with HIV, but the effects of chronic infection on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are unclear. We aimed to compare HRQoL in people with HIV and the general population. METHODS We merged two UK cross-sectional surveys: the ASTRA study, which recruited participants aged 18 years or older with HIV from eight outpatient clinics in the UK between Feb 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2012; and the Health Survey for England (HSE) 2011, which measures health and health-related behaviours in individuals living in a random sample of private households in England. The ASTRA study has data for 3258 people (response rate 64%) and HSE for 8503 people aged 18 years or older (response rate 66%). HRQoL was assessed with the Euroqol 5D questionnaire 3 level (EQ-5D-3L) instrument that measures health on five domains, each with three levels. The responses are scored on a scale where a value of 1 represents perfect health and a value of 0 represents death, known as the utility score. We used multivariable models to compare utility scores between the HIV and general population samples with adjustment for several sociodemographic factors. FINDINGS 3151 (97%) of 3258 of participants in ASTRA and 7424 (87%) of 8503 participants in HSE had complete EQ-5D-3L data. The EQ-5D-3L utility score was lower for people with HIV compared with that in the general population (marginal effect in utility score adjusted for age, and sex/sexuality -0·11; 95% CI -0·13 to -0·10; p < 0·0001). HRQoL was lower for people with HIV for all EQ-5D-3L domains, particularly for anxiety/depression. The difference in utility score was significant after adjustment for several additional sociodemographic variables (ethnic origin, education, having children, and smoking status) and was apparent across all CD4 cell count, antiretroviral therapy, and viral load strata, but was greatest for those people diagnosed with HIV in earlier calendar periods. Reduction in HRQoL with age was not greater in people with HIV than in the general population (pinteraction > 0·05). INTERPRETATION People living with HIV have significantly lower HRQoL than do the general population, despite most HIV positive individuals in this study being virologically and immunologically stable. Although this difference could in part be due to factors other than HIV, this study provides additional evidence of the loss of health that can be avoided through prevention of further HIV infections. FUNDING UK National Institute for Health Research.

The Cost of HIV Treatment and Care: A Global Review

This review of published studies on the costs of HIV treatment and care describes some of the recent developments that have influenced these costs in industrialised and industrialising countries, especially within the context of changing drug treatments. Some of the different approaches to estimating the economic impact of HIV infection are briefly presented. The methods used to review the literature are described, particularly the criteria of a scoring system that was specifically developed to systematically screen some of the studies identified. The mean review score for studies dealing with direct hospital costs increased significantly (p = 0.003) over the 3 periods analysed (before 1987, 1987 to 1995, and 1996 and beyond), indicating that the overall ‘quality’ of studies increased over time.All cost estimates, other than those from non-industrialised regions, were converted to 1996 US dollars using country-specific total health expenditure inflaters and country-specific Gross Domestic Product Purchasing Power Parity converters. A summary of hospital cost estimates over time and by region demonstrated that the costs of treating asymptomatic individuals and people with symptomatic non-AIDS increased over the period, but that the costs of treating individuals with AIDS appears to have stabilised since the late 1980s. As fewer studies could be identified on the costs of community and informal care, indirect productivity costs and population cost estimates, and costs of care for children with HIV infection, all of these studies were reviewed without the use of the scoring system.Finally, the discussion explores the evidence on the global costs of HIV in non-industrialised economies and the affordability of HIV treatment and care. Some suggestions for the direction of future HIV costing studies are also presented. A need remains for good quality cost data. Adequate research effort should be directed to improving the scope and quality of information on costs of HIV service provision around the world.

Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care

There are inefficiencies in current approaches to monitoring patients on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients typically attend clinics every 1 to 3 months for clinical assessment. The clinic costs are comparable with the costs of the drugs themselves and CD4 counts are measured every 6 months, but patients are rarely switched to second-line therapies. To ensure sustainability of treatment programmes, a transition to more cost-effective delivery of antiretroviral therapy is needed. In contrast to the CD4 count, measurement of the level of HIV RNA in plasma (the viral load) provides a direct measure of the current treatment effect. Viral-load-informed differentiated care is a means of tailoring care so that those with suppressed viral load visit the clinic less frequently and attention is focussed on those with unsuppressed viral load to promote adherence and timely switching to a second-line regimen. The most feasible approach to measuring viral load in many countries is to collect dried blood spot samples for testing in regional laboratories; however, there have been concerns over the sensitivity and specificity of this approach to define treatment failure and the delay in returning results to the clinic. We use modelling to synthesize evidence and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of viral-load-informed differentiated care, accounting for limitations of dried blood sample testing. We find that viral-load-informed differentiated care using dried blood sample testing is cost-effective and is a recommended strategy for patient monitoring, although further empirical evidence as the approach is rolled out would be of value. We also explore the potential benefits of point-of-care viral load tests that may become available in the future.This article has not been written or reviewed by Nature editors. Nature accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided.