Rosa Legood

Incidence and costs of unintentional falls in older people in the United Kingdom

Study objective: To estimate the number of accident and emergency (A&E) attendances, admissions to hospital, and the associated costs as a result of unintentional falls in older people. Design: Analysis of national databases for cost of illness. Setting: United Kingdom, 1999, cost to the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS). Participants: Four age groups of people 60 years and over (60–64, 65–69, 70–74, and ⩾75) attending an A&E department or admitted to hospital after an unintentional fall. Databases analysed were the Home Accident Surveillance System (HASS) and Leisure Accident Surveillance System (LASS), and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Main results: There were 647 721 A&E attendances and 204 424 admissions to hospital for fall related injuries in people aged 60 years and over. For the four age groups A&E attendance rates per 10 000 population were 273.5, 287.3, 367.9, and 945.3, and hospital admission rates per 10 000 population were 34.5, 52.0, 91.9, and 368.6. The cost per 10 000 population was £300 000 in the 60–64 age group, increasing to £1 500 000 in the ⩾75 age group. These falls cost the UK government £981 million, of which the NHS incurred 59.2%. Most of the costs (66%) were attributable to falls in those aged ⩾75 years. The major cost driver was inpatient admissions, accounting for 49.4% of total cost of falls. Long term care costs were the second highest, accounting for 41%, primarily in those aged ⩾75 years. Conclusions: Unintentional falls impose a substantial burden on health and social services.

The impact of diabetes-related complications on healthcare costs: results from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS Study No. 65)

Aims To develop a model for estimating the immediate and long‐term healthcare costs associated with seven diabetes‐related complications in patients with Type 2 diabetes participating in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS).

Psychological impact of human papillomavirus testing in women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear test results: cross sectional questionnaire study

Abstract Objective To describe the psychological impact on women of being tested for human papillomavirus (HPV) when smear test results are borderline or mildly dyskaryotic. Design Cross sectional questionnaire study. Setting Two centres participating in an English pilot study of HPV testing in women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results. Participants Women receiving borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results tested for HPV and found to be HPV positive (n = 536) or HPV negative (n = 331); and women not tested for HPV with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear results (n = 143) or normal smear results (n = 366). Main outcome measures State anxiety, distress, and concern about test result, assessed within four weeks of receipt of results. Results Women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear results who were HPV positive were more anxious, distressed, and concerned than the other three groups. Three variables independently predicted anxiety in HPV positive women: younger age (β = −0.11, P = 0.03), higher perceived risk of cervical cancer (β = 0.17, P < 0.001), and reporting that they did not understand the meaning of test results (β = 0.17, P = 0.001). Testing HPV negative was not reassuring: among women with abnormal smear test results, those who were HPV negative were no less anxious than those who were not tested for HPV. Conclusions Informing women more effectively about the meaning of borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results and HPV status, in particular about the absolute risks of cervical cancer and the prevalence of HPV infection, may avoid some anxiety for those who are HPV positive while achieving some reassurance for those who test HPV negative.

Are we blind to injuries in the visually impaired? A review of the literature

Objectives: To review the literature on the risks and types of injuries associated with visual impairment, and to identify pertinent areas for future research. Methods: A search of bibliographic databases was conducted in April 2000 for studies published since 1980 and selected studies that met two or more of the following criteria: formal ophthalmic assessment was used; adjustment for confounding variables; large sample size including numbers of visually impaired; and clear definitions and outcomes. Results: Thirty one studies were selected. The majority of these studies (20) assessed falls (including eight on hip fracture and four on multiple falls), eight studies reported traffic related injuries, and three studies assessed occupational injury. The evidence on falls, which relate predominantly to older people, suggests that those with reduced visual acuity are 1.7 times more likely to have a fall and 1.9 times more likely to have multiple falls compared with fully sighted populations. The odds of a hip fracture are between 1.3 and 1.9 times greater for those with reduced visual acuity. Studies of less severe injuries and other causes of injury were either poorly designed, underpowered, or did not exist. Conclusions: There are substantial gaps in research on both injuries to which people with visual impairment are especially susceptible and in evaluating interventions to reduce these injuries. It is recommended that in future studies the minimum data captured includes: formal ophthalmic assessment of visual fields and visual acuity, outcome measurement, control for confounders, and the costs of health care resource use and any interventions.

DNA testing for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a cost-effectiveness model

Aims To explore the cost-effectiveness of alternative methods of screening family members for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), the most common monogenic cardiac disorder and the most frequent cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young people. Methods and results Economic decision model comparing cascade screening by genetic, as opposed to clinical methods. The incremental cost per life year saved was 14,397 euro for the cascade genetic compared with the cascade clinical approach. Genetic diagnostic strategies are more likely to be cost-effective than clinical tests alone. The costs for cascade molecular genetic testing were slightly higher than clinical testing in the short run, but this was largely because the genetic approach is more effective and identifies more individuals at risk. Conclusion The use of molecular genetic information in the diagnosis and management of HCM is a cost-effective approach to the primary prevention of SCD in these patients.

Calibrating Models in Economic Evaluation: A Seven-Step Approach

In economic evaluation, mathematical models have a central role as a way of integrating all the relevant information about a disease and health interventions, in order to estimate costs and consequences over an extended time horizon. Models are based on scientific knowledge of disease (which is likely to change over time), simplifying assumptions and input parameters with different levels of uncertainty; therefore, it is sensible to explore the consistency of model predictions with observational data. Calibration is a useful tool for estimating uncertain parameters, as well as more accurately defining model uncertainty (particularly with respect to the representation of correlations between parameters). Calibration involves the comparison of model outputs (e.g. disease prevalence rates) with empirical data, leading to the identification of model parameter values that achieve a good fit.This article provides guidance on the theoretical underpinnings of different calibration methods. The calibration process is divided into seven steps and different potential methods at each step are discussed, focusing on the particular features of disease models in economic evaluation. The seven steps are (i) Which parameters should be varied in the calibration process? (ii) Which calibration targets should be used? (iii) What measure of goodness of fit should be used? (iv) What parameter search strategy should be used? (v) What determines acceptable goodness-of-fit parameter sets (convergence criteria)? (vi) What determines the termination of the calibration process (stopping rule)? (vii) How should the model calibration results and economic parameters be integrated?The lack of standards in calibrating disease models in economic evaluation can undermine the credibility of calibration methods. In order to avoid the scepticism regarding calibration, we ought to unify the way we approach the problems and report the methods used, and continue to investigate different methods.

The psychological impact of human papillomavirus testing in women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear test results: 6-month follow-up

State anxiety (S-STAI-6), distress (GHQ-12), concern and quality of life (EuroQoL-EQ-5D) 6 months after human papillomavirus (HPV) testing in women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results were assessed based on a prospective questionnaire study, with 6-month follow-up after the smear test result. Two centres participated in an English pilot study of HPV testing. Participants included two groups of women receiving abnormal smear test results: (tested for HPV and found to be (a) HPV positive (n=369) or (b) HPV negative (n=252)) and two groups not tested for HPV (those receiving (c) abnormal smear test results (n=102) or (d) normal smear test results (n=288)). There were no differences in anxiety, distress or health-related quality of life between the four study groups at 6 months. Levels of concern about the smear test result remained elevated in all groups receiving an abnormal smear test result, and were highest in the group untested for HPV. Predictors of concern across all groups receiving an abnormal smear test were perceived risk of developing cancer, being HPV positive or untested for HPV, sexual health worries and the smear being a womans first smear test. The raised anxiety and distress observed in women immediately after being informed of an abnormal smear test result and that they are HPV positive was no longer evident at 6 months. Concern about the smear test result was however still raised in these women and those who tested negative for HPV, and particularly among those who did not undergo HPV testing.

Cost-effectiveness of Population Screening for BRCA Mutations in Ashkenazi Jewish Women Compared With Family History–Based Testing

Background: Population-based testing for BRCA1/2 mutations detects the high proportion of carriers not identified by cancer family history (FH)–based testing. We compared the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA testing with the standard FH-based approach in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed to compare lifetime costs and effects amongst AJ women in the UK of BRCA founder-mutation testing amongst: 1) all women in the population age 30 years or older and 2) just those with a strong FH (≥10% mutation risk). The model assumes that BRCA carriers are offered risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and annual MRI/mammography screening or risk-reducing mastectomy. Model probabilities utilize the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial/published literature to estimate total costs, effects in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cancer incidence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and population impact. Costs are reported at 2010 prices. Costs/outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. We used deterministic/probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate model uncertainty. Results: Compared with FH-based testing, population-screening saved 0.090 more life-years and 0.101 more QALYs resulting in 33 days’ gain in life expectancy. Population screening was found to be cost saving with a baseline-discounted ICER of -£2079/QALY. Population-based screening lowered ovarian and breast cancer incidence by 0.34% and 0.62%. Assuming 71% testing uptake, this leads to 276 fewer ovarian and 508 fewer breast cancer cases. Overall, reduction in treatment costs led to a discounted cost savings of £3.7 million. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and 94% of simulations on PSA (threshold £20000) indicated that population screening is cost-effective, compared with current NHS policy. Conclusion: Population-based screening for BRCA mutations is highly cost-effective compared with an FH-based approach in AJ women age 30 years and older.

Effect of testing for human papillomavirus as a triage during screening for cervical cancer: observational before and after study

Abstract Objective To assess the effect of introducing testing for human papillomavirus combined with liquid based cytology in women with low grade cytological abnormalities. Design Observational before and after study. Setting Three cervical screening laboratories, England. Participants 5654 women aged 20-64 with low grade cytological abnormalities found at routine cervical screening in a pilot; 5254 similar women in the period before the pilot. Interventions Human papillomavirus testing combined with liquid based cytology in the management of women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results compared with conventional smear tests, with immediate referral to colposcopy of women positive for human papillomavirus. Results 57.9% (3187/5506) of women tested in the pilot were positive for human papillomavirus. The rate of repeat smears fell by 74%, but the rate of referral to colposcopy for low grade cytological abnormalities more than doubled. The estimated negative predictive value of human papillomavirus testing varied between 93.8% and 99.7%. Conclusion The addition of testing for human papillomavirus in women with low grade cytological abnormalities resulted in a reduction in the rate of repeat smears, but an increase in rates of referral to colposcopy.

Lifetime effects, costs, and cost effectiveness of testing for human papillomavirus to manage low grade cytological abnormalities: results of the NHS pilot studies.

Abstract Objectives To predict the incremental lifetime effects, costs, and cost effectiveness of using human papillomavirus testing to triage women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results for immediate colposcopy. Design Modelling study. Setting Three centres participating in NHS pilot studies, United Kingdom. Population Women aged 25-64 with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results. Interventions Screening using conventional cytology, liquid based cytology, and four strategies with different age cut-off points and follow up times that used combined liquid based cytology and human papillomavirus testing (adjunctive human papillomavirus testing). Results The model predicts that compared with using conventional cytology without testing for human papillomavirus, testing for the virus in conjunction with liquid based cytology for women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic cervical smear results (aged 35 or more) would cost £3735 (euros5528;