Aleh Cherp

Energy and security

Executive Summary Uninterrupted provision of vital energy services (see Chapter 1, Section 1.2.2) – energy security – is a high priority of every nation. Energy security concerns are a key driving force of energy policy. These concerns relate to the robustness (sufficiency of resources, reliability of infrastructure, and stable and affordable prices); sovereignty (protection from potential threats from external agents); and resilience (the ability to withstand diverse disruptions) of energy systems. Our analysis of energy security issues in over 130 countries shows that the absolute majority of them are vulnerable from at least one of these three perspectives. For most industrial countries, energy insecurity means import dependency and aging infrastructure, while many emerging economies have additional vulnerabilities such as insufficient capacity, high energy intensity, and rapid demand growth. In many low-income countries, multiple vulnerabilities overlap, making them especially insecure. Oil and its products lack easily available substitutes in the transport sector, where they provide at least 90% of energy in almost all countries. Furthermore, the global demand for transport fuels is steadily rising, especially rapidly in Asian emerging economies. Disruptions of oil supplies may thus result in catastrophic effects on such vital functions of modern states as food production, medical care, and internal security. At the same time, the global production capacity of conventional oil is widely perceived as limited. These factors result in rising and volatile prices of oil affecting all economies, especially low-income countries, almost all of which import over 80% of their oil supplies.

EA legislation and practice in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR: A comparative analysis

Abstract The paper describes the main directions and the outcomes of the reform of EA legislation in practice in 27 former socialist countries in the 1990s. During this period, more than 100 legal acts in the field of EA have been introduced and EA has become one of the most widely used environmetal policy tools. The process of political and economic transition has significantly influenced the evolution of and the regional variations in EA systems especially in relation to the area of application of EA procedures, the roles of key actors, the scope of EA studies and the links of EA to decision-making. An effective EA reform should be sensitive to specific needs of the transitional societies and sensitive to their unique societal context.

Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resource availabilities

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (a business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate potential long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union, India and the US, as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy systems, particularly in the especially vulnerable transportation sector. China, India and the EU will derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the US may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the 2nd half of the century. (Less)

Energy security assessment framework and three case-studies

This chapter provides a novel framework for assessing energy security and illustrates its application by the Global Energy Assessment, the IEA Model for Short-term energy security and in several studies of long-term global energy security.

Is China’s outward investment in oil a global security concern?

Abstract The motivations prompting Chinas dramatic increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) are not always clear, especially regarding OFDI by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in energy and natural resources. First, both commercial and governmental interests are intertwined, although not necessarily in lock-step. Chinese SOEs listed in the West may worry about the reputational risks to their global corporate citizenship, while government stakeholders may instead focus on diplomatic international relations. Second, subsidies for oil investments may be viewed as serving Chinese national interests and threatening the national security of the host countries. Whether Chinas OFDI will benefit or harm global energy security, economic development and diplomatic relations is still hotly contested. This article discusses Chinas outward investment in oil with a global security concern.

The role of Environmental Management Systems in enforcing standards and thresholds in the context of EIA follow-up

The effectiveness of Environmental Assessment (EA) depends on its ability to effect change in the way human activities impact the environment. Unfortunately, environmental professionals are all too familiar with a gap between protecting the environment ‘on paper’ (e.g. in the EIS and related documents) and destroying it ‘on the ground’ where the activities undergoing EA are implemented. To bridge this gap, EIA follow up contains the management component defined as “making decisions and taking appropriate action in response to issues arising from monitoring and evaluation activities” (Morrison-Saunder et al. 2003). Environmental Management Plans (EMPs) and Environmental Management Systems (EMS) are the main management tools which can improve EIA effectiveness during followup. This section considers the rationale for and the experience of using EMPs and EMS in the context of EIA and SEA with particularly attention to the role of standards and thresholds.

Managing the sacred? Perspectives on teaching excellence and learning outcomes from an international postgraduate university

Abstract The assessment of student learning driven by learning outcomes is often viewed as a tool to promote excellence in higher education. At the same time, many professors do not see a value in such approach, while nonetheless sincerely seeking to promote teaching and learning excellence. Is this a result of misunderstanding or is there an inherent conflict between a formalized assessment of learning outcomes and pursuit of excellence? This article examines this question through interviewing faculty members in an international postgraduate university which is deeply committed to excellence in teaching and learning and is currently on a journey to introduce a formal system of learning outcomes assessment. The article explores the tension between pursuit of excellence and the procedures to set and measure the achievement of formal learning outcomes. The article contains several recommendations on bridging this gap and ensuring stronger facultys ownership of the assessment process.