Aleksandr Kuklin

Transformation of theoretical-methodological approaches and methodical tools of the individual and territory welfare diagnostics. Part 1. From spreading to the alternative diagnostics approaches (background)

This article presents an evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to the welfare study. Existing theories of wellbeing are grouped according to accounted method of goods and resources distribution among society members. As a welfare future as a category we highlight objective (measured) and subjective (estimated) components. Based on the analysis of scientific literature we determine the ratio of individual and social welfare. The main differences between the categories of “ welfare†and “wealth†are given. The main difference consists in multidirectional changes of welfare and wealth for an increase (decrease) in income of the individual (country). In this article we present an analysis of modern approaches to the definition of welfare: state, institutional and expendable approach. The welfare level estimation is complicated due to the need to consider the subjective component. The article provides an analysis of existing approaches to quantitative welfare evaluation ranging from the most common techniques (HDI, GDP) to alternative techniques (Happy Planet Index).Methodological devices are structured by levels of welfare assessment objects (world, country, region, people). Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of methods we can conclude that the most reliable method is a comprehensive approach, which includes economic, environmental, social, vital and infrastructure indicators. The author’s approach to the formation of a complex methodological tool for individual and territory welfare estimation is presented in this article.

Methodological Tools for the Detection of Risks to the Welfare of the Individuals and the Territory of Residence

To formalise the assessment of risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence presents a relevant issue. This study aims to define the economic security in the structure of the system of the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence and to develop a classifier of risks. We consider the economic security as one of the needs for meeting which the welfare aims. The risk assessment includes three stages. At the first stage, we calculate the welfare of individuals and the territory. At the second stage, the authors determine the coefficient of variation to select indicators that will characterize the risks to the welfare. The third stage assumes the assessment of these risks, which reduce the welfare. The regional economic system is considered as a multidimensional stochastic system, which can be modelled as a vector random variable. The components of this variable generally are mutually correlated. The formalization of the assessment of risks to the welfare is based on this interpretation of the regional economic system. As a result, the authors highlighted the main threats to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence. We have selected risk factors with high coefficient of variation, which indicates that the selected indicators have a high degree of variability. The research evaluates risks to the welfare of individuals and the territory of residence assessing the probability of the occurrence of crisis states for the regions of the Ural Federal District. The probabilities of the states pre-crisis 1 and pre-crisis 2 for all these regions are sufficiently high. It can indicate that the general social and economic state in the regions of the Ural Federal District is unstable. The findings can be used to develop an effective risk management system at the regional level.

assessment of damage fRom Reduction of expected lifespan due to canceR

This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation†from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

Differentition of population income and poverty problem (based on the data of Tyumen region)

The given article presents the results of analyzing differentiation in cash income of Tyumen region population. The analysis of differentiation has been done with indicators of Foster-Greer-Thorbeek for the territories- members of Tyumen region — KhMAO, YaNAO and South of the region. Social policy conducted in the region during the last decade has been evaluated and set of measures meant to improvement of status of poor population has been suggested.

National policy in reference to labor remuneration and its influence on poverty dynamics in a region

The paper emphasizes urgent issues regarding labor remuneration, which need to be settled along with adoption of socioeconomic policy aimed at critical reduction in size of the poor population.

Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region

The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region†owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.