Aleksandra Barac

Estimates of global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Methods We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages. Methods We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs. Findings In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000–763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0–65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI −0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940–2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction. Interpretation LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Importance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. Objective To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes. Design, Settings, and Participants Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. Main Outcomes and Measures Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. Results There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. Conclusions and Relevance Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts.

In vitro antifungal activities of amphotericin B, 5-fluorocytosine, fluconazole and itraconazole against Cryptococcus neoformans isolated from cerebrospinal fluid and blood from patients in Serbia.

Recently, geographic variations in resistance to agents commonly used in the treatment of cryptococcosis have been reported. Therefore, the antifungal susceptibilities of 31 clinical isolates of Cryptococcus neoformans, collected in Serbia during 10-year period, were investigated. Strains were isolated from cerebrospinal fluid (n=28) and blood (n=3), from patients with AIDS (n=26), lymphoma (n=4) and kidney transplant recipient (n=1). The minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of amphotericin B, 5-fluorocytosine, fluconazole and itraconazole were determined by the E-test(®) method. The isolates were highly susceptible to amphotericin B (100% susceptibility at MIC<0.5 μg/mL) and 5-fluorocytosine (87.1% susceptibility at MIC ≤ 4 μg/mL). Geometric mean MIC of amphotericin B and 5-fluorocytosine were 0.102 μg/mL and 0.396 μg/mL, respectively. Fluconazole exhibited the lowest activity in vitro (48.4% susceptibility at MIC ≤ 8 μg/mL) with a significant resistance rate. The activity of itraconazole was also decreased (48.4% susceptibility at MIC ≤ 0.25 μg/mL). The geometric mean MIC of fluconazole stood at 15.14 μg/mL and of itraconazole was 0.144 μg/mL. Cross-resistance among azoles was not common (3.2%), but the parallel increase in fluconazole and itraconazole MIC has been observed (P<0.01). The low rate of susceptibility to fluconazole stresses the need for active antifungal surveillance of C. neoformans and of the corresponding data from different geographic regions.

A laboratory-based study on patients with Parkinson’s disease and seborrheic dermatitis: the presence and density of Malassezia yeasts, their different species and enzymes production

BackgroundSeborrheic dermatitis (SD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD) are frequently associated conditions. Aims of this study were: to determine severity of SD, presence of different species and density of Malassezia yeasts; to assess yeast lipases and phosphatases production in vitro and to compare these results between SD patients with and without PD.MethodsThis case–control prospective study was conducted at the Dermatology and Neurology Units, Clinical Centre of Serbia and at the National Medical Mycology Reference Laboratory, University of Belgrade Medical School, Serbia. A total of 90 patients and 70 healthy controls (HC) were investigated: 60 patients with SD (SDN) and 30 patients with SD and PD (SDP). Culture-based mycological examination was carried out on lesional skin (LS) and non-lesional skin (NLS). A yeasts density was determined by counting the Malassezia colony forming units per tape (CFU/tape). Enzymes production by isolated Malassezia was investigated.ResultsThe most patients with SD were male (76.7%; SDP and 63.3%; SDN) and the intensity of SD was dominantly severe or moderate (76.7%; SDP and 75%; SDN). The presence of Malasseziа was high on LS in both groups (87.3%; SDP and 86.7%; SDN) (p=0.667).The highest yeasts density (mean CFU/tape=67.8) was detected on LS in 53% of SDP group and in 21.7% of SDN group (mean CFU/tape=31.9) (p < 0.01). The presence of negative cultures was lower in SDP group (13.3%) in comparison to HC and SDN groups (37% and 31.7%, respectively). Malassezia density on NLS in SDP group (mean CFU/tape=44.3) was significantly higher in comparison to SDN and HC (p=0.018). M. globosa was the most abundant species identified amongst isolates from the SDP group (42.3%) and exhibited high production of phosphatase and lipase in vitro.ConclusionFrom this laboratory-based study a positive correlation between SD, PD, M. globosa incidence, high yeast density and high phosphatase and lipase activity was established. Our data lead to conclusion that local skin performance of PD patient’s characterized with increased sebum excretion ratio play a role in SD by stimulation of yeasts replication and enzyme production.

The prevalence of Candida onychomycosis in Southeastern Serbia from 2011 to 2015.

Despite the increasing of onychomycosis caused by Candida spp., in referent literature, there is still data insufficiency about this nail infection. The objectives of this retrospective study were to determine epidemiological characteristics of Candida onychomycosis, the antifungal susceptibility of isolated species in vitro, and to compare the results of antifungal susceptibility testing with conducted treatment in period from 2011 to the end of March 2015. Out of 761 patients who were underwent clinical and mycological examinations, 137 had Candida species isolated from nails. The dominant species was Candida albicans (C. albicans) (36.59%) followed by C. parapsilosis (23.78%), C. krusei (9.76%), and C. guilliermondii (6.71%). Antifungal susceptibility in vitro testing showed good susceptibility to antimycotics, except C. krusei, which was resistance to fluconazole (FCZ) and isolates of C. tropicalis and C. glabrata which were dose dependent to itraconazole (ITZ) and fluconazole. Evaluation of medical histories determined that combined therapy, which included pulsed systemic regimen of ITZ with topical application of clotrimazole, had better clinical outcomes regarding the proscribed only topical application of clotrimazole. Multidisciplinary approach of dermatologists and mycologists is required in solving the problem of onychomycosis, which is the dominant nail disease.

Presence, species distribution, and density of Malassezia yeast in patients with seborrhoeic dermatitis – a community‐based case–control study and review of literature

Malassezia yeast belongs to the normal cutaneous flora and under certain conditions it causes seborrhoeic dermatitis (SD). There is no culture‐based study about the presence and density of the Malassezia in SD patients in Serbia. Aim was to show the presence, species distribution and density of Malassezia in patients with SD on lesional skin (LS) and non‐lesional skin (NLS) and healthy controls (HC) and to compare data between Serbia and other countries. The study included 70 HC and 60 patients with SD in the study group (SG). Isolation, identification and examination of density of Malassezia colony‐forming units from LS and NLS were performed. Malassezia was found more frequently in the SG than in HC, 90% and 60%, respectively (P < 0.01). The most frequent isolates in SG on LS were M. slooffiae (26%), followed by M. globosa (17%) and M. sympodialis (17%). The yeast density was much higher on LS of SG than on NLS of SG or in the HC group (P < 0.05). Higher density of Malassezia was shown on LS of SG than on NLS of SG and HC. M. slooffiae is the most prevalent species in SD patients in Serbia. This study demonstrated a positive relationship between severity of SD and presence of Malassezia spp.

Proven invasive pulmonary mucormycosis successfully treated with amphotericin B and surgery in patient with acute myeloblastic leukemia: a case report

IntroductionInvasive mucormycosis (zygomycosis) is the third most frequent fungal infection in patients with hematologic malignancies. It often results in a fatal outcome mainly due to the difficulty of early diagnosis and its resistance to antimycotics.Case presentationA 52-year-old Caucasian man was diagnosed with acute myeloblastic leukemia. Following the induction chemotherapy he developed febrile neutropenia. Meropenem (3×1000mg/day) was introduced empirically. A chest computed tomography showed soft-tissue consolidation change in his right upper lobe. A bronchoscopy was performed and the histology indicated invasive pulmonary aspergillosis based on fungal hypha detection. Also, high risk patients are routinely screened for invasive fungal infections using commercially available serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests: galactomannan and mannan (Bio-Rad, France), as well as anti-Aspergillus immunoglobulin G and/or immunoglobulin M and anti-Candida immunoglobulin G and/or immunoglobulin M antibodies (Virion-Serion, Germany). Galactomannan showed low positivity and voriconazole therapy (2×400mg/first day; 2×300mg/following days) was implemented. The patient became afebrile and a partial remission of disease was established. After 2 months, the patient developed a fever and a chest multi-slice computed tomography showed soft-tissue mass compressing his upper right bronchus. Voriconazole (2×400mg/first day; 2×300mg/following days) was reintroduced and bronchoscopy was repeated. Histologic examination of the new specimen was done, as well as a revision of the earlier samples in the reference laboratory and the diagnosis was switched to invasive pulmonary mucormycosis. The treatment was changed to amphotericin B colloidal dispersion (1×400mg/day). The complete remission of acute myeloblastic leukemia was verified after 2 months. During his immunerestitution, a high positivity of the anti-Aspergillus immunoglobulin M antibodies was found in a single serum sample and pulmonary radiography was unchanged. A lobectomy of his right upper pulmonary lobe was done and the mycology culture of the lung tissue sample revealed Rhizopus oryzae. He remained in complete remission for more than 1 year.ConclusionsInvasive mucormycosis was successfully treated with amphotericin B, surgery and secondary itraconazole prophylaxis. As a rare disease invasive mucormycosis is not well understood by the medical community and therefore an improvement of education about prevention, diagnosis and treatment of invasive mucormycosis is necessary.

Manifestations of Lyme carditis

The first data of Lyme carditis, a relatively rare manifestation of Lyme disease, were published in eighties of the last century. Clinical manifestations include syncope, light-headedness, fainting, shortness of breath, palpitations, and/or chest pain. Atrioventricular (AV) electrical block of varying severity presents the most common conduction disorder in Lyme carditis. Although is usually mild, AV block can fluctuates rapidly and progress from a prolonged P-R interval to a His-Purkinje block within minutes to hours and days. Rarely, Lyme disease may be the cause of endocarditis, while some studies and reports, based on serological and/or molecular investigations, have suggested possible influence of Borrelia burgdorferi on degenerative cardiac valvular disease. Myocarditis, pericarditis, pancarditis, dilated cardiomyopathy, and heart failure have also been described as possible manifestations of Lyme carditis. The clinical course of Lyme carditis is generally mild, short term, and in most cases, completely reversible after adequate antibiotic treatment.

Global Burden of Multiple Myeloma: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Introduction Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell neoplasm with substantial morbidity and mortality. A comprehensive description of the global burden of MM is needed to help direct health policy, resource allocation, research, and patient care. Objective To describe the burden of MM and the availability of effective therapies for 21 world regions and 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting We report incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. Data sources include vital registration system, cancer registry, drug availability, and survey data for stem cell transplant rates. We analyzed the contribution of aging, population growth, and changes in incidence rates to the overall change in incident cases from 1990 to 2016 globally, by sociodemographic index (SDI) and by region. We collected data on approval of lenalidomide and bortezomib worldwide. Main Outcomes and Measures Multiple myeloma mortality; incidence; years lived with disabilities; years of life lost; and DALYs by age, sex, country, and year. Results Worldwide in 2016 there were 138 509 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 000-155 480) incident cases of MM with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.1 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.8-2.3). Incident cases from 1990 to 2016 increased by 126% globally and by 106% to 192% for all SDI quintiles. The 3 world regions with the highest ASIR of MM were Australasia, North America, and Western Europe. Multiple myeloma caused 2.1 million (95% UI, 1.9-2.3 million) DALYs globally in 2016. Stem cell transplantation is routinely available in higher-income countries but is lacking in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East. In 2016, lenalidomide and bortezomib had been approved in 73 and 103 countries, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance Incidence of MM is highly variable among countries but has increased uniformly since 1990, with the largest increase in middle and low-middle SDI countries. Access to effective care is very limited in many countries of low socioeconomic development, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Global health policy priorities for MM are to improve diagnostic and treatment capacity in low and middle income countries and to ensure affordability of effective medications for every patient. Research priorities are to elucidate underlying etiological factors explaining the heterogeneity in myeloma incidence.