Aleksandras Vytautas Rutkauskas

On the sustainability of regional competitiveness development considering risk

Abstract The main goal of the paper is to analyse methodical and practical aspects of country (region) competitiveness sustainable development strategy and its implementation means. Such an innovative problem has raised a lot of original tasks and a need for developing corresponding solution methods. Today definitions of development and sustainability often go together analysing global, regional and local processes. Indeed, in this case the definition of competitiveness, as well as the definition of development sustainability require adequate interpretation and quantitative assessment. In the paper, country (region) competitiveness measure is assumed as three‐dimensional indicator, which depends on the fields of activity, dominating in the country, international economic relations and legal, financial, ecological, natural resources and geographical location environment competitiveness. An assumption is made that it is possible to evaluate quantitatively general competitiveness subject to three mentioned c...

Investment decisions modelling along sustainable development concept on financial markets

Abstract The goal of the paper is development of the conception of sustainable return investment decisions strategy in capital and money markets and modeling of investment decisions along sustainable development concept in capital and money markets. The research was performed with an experiment in FOREX and in some matured and emerging capital markets. The adequate for investments decisions reliability assessment portfolio will be presented and analysed as main instrument for developing sustainable return investment decisions strategy. The cases of practical implementation of adequate portfolio will be widely described. Further, the pragmatical problems how to use the strategy as innovative and effective financial instrument for investors and stock treasury will be discussed. Practical calculation was made on the very last data of different markets.

Optimal portfolio search using efficient surface and three-dimensional utility function

Abstract The concepts of effectiveness, riskness and reliability are three cornerstones which together with utility of investor constitute the base for decisions perception and management logic in order to match the possibilities of investment space with investors objectives. Risk, which is “a chance or possibility of danger, loss, injury, or other adverse consequences” (The Oxford Modern English Dictionary) or, specifically, in the area of investment management – “the chance that an investment (as a stock or commodity) will lose value” (Webster Dictionary) is the function of risksness of selected assets altogether with skills of a subject to manage the riskness of the analysed object, process, etc. Thus risk is analysed as an interaction of possibilities riskness and abilities of a subject (investor) to manage these possibilities. The paper will reveal a consistent way towards investment possibilities set description, when investment assets possibilities are under uncertainty, what is understood in this...

Building an artificial stock market populated by reinforcement‐learning agents

In this paper we propose an artificial stock market model based on interaction of heterogeneous agents whose forward‐looking behaviour is driven by the reinforcement‐learning algorithm combined with some evolutionary selection mechanism. We use the model for the analysis of market self‐regulation abilities, market efficiency and determinants of emergent properties of the financial market. Distinctive and novel features of the model include strong emphasis on the economic content of individual decision‐making, application of the Q‐learning algorithm for driving individual behaviour, and rich market setup. Along with that a parallel version of the model is presented, which is mainly based on research of current changes in the market, as well as on search of newly emerged consistent patterns, and which has been repeatedly used for optimal decisions’ search experiments in various capital markets.

Research on futures trend trading strategy based on short term chart pattern

The main task of this paper is to examine a short term trend trading strategy in futures market based on chart pattern recognition, time series and computational analysis. Specifications of historical data for technical analysis and equations for futures profitability calculations together with position size measurement are also discussed in the paper. A contribution of this paper lies in a novel chart pattern related to fractal formation and chaos theory and its application to short term up-trend trading. Trading strategy was tested with historical data of the most active futures contracts. The results have given significantly better and stable returns compared to the change of market benchmark (CRB index). The results of experimental research related to the size of trading portfolio and trade execution slippage are also discussed in the paper. The proposed strategy can be attractive for futures market participants and be applied as a decision support tool in technical analysis.

Integrated Management of Marketing Risk and Efficiency

There are two principal problems arising for marketing management: first—the increase of marketing ability to use effectively its resources, and second—to inventory the risks influencing marketing activity in order to develop their management strategy. Considering exceptional riskiness of marketing, the solution of marketing efficiency problems is not separable from identification of risks, influencing marketing, and their management strategies development. Integrated analysis of marketing efficiency and risk management problems is performed in two ways. First, a marketing risks portfolio management situation is analysed in such a way that resources, intended for risk management, are distributed among the means of decreasing value at risk in such a manner that the overall value of risk, i.e. the resultant of all risk values, would be minimal. Second, based on the expert efficiency estimates for a unit of costs in every element of marketing structure, a distribution of costs is pursued which would uphold the best increase of marketinggenerated marginal utility. To find the solution, imitative modeling and stochastic optimization methods are used.

Formation of an investment portfolio adequate for stochasticity of profit possibilities

Abstract The paper deals with the conception of integrated bank assets and liabilities portfolio adequate to stochastic nature of assets profitability and liabilities expenditures. Two interconnected situations are considered. Firstly, the principles of construction of an investment portfolio, adequate to stochastic nature of an investment yield arc considered. Further, the idea of consideration and optimal selection of integrated assets and liabilities portfolio is considered. These problems are solved on the basis of the authors’ idea of investment portfolio adequate for stochastic nature of investment portfolio and the numerical solution of such problems, which is briefly presented.

DEVELOPMENT OF RATIONAL MODEL FOR LITHUANIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

Summary By modelling and forecasting future perspectives and trends of the construction industry, it is possible to get prepared in advance to respond to the changes of macro- and microlevel variables (eg enterprise restructuring and structural change, sources of company finance, information system of construction, financial sector, interest rate, inflation, innovation, etc) which affect the Lithuanian economy. The lifetime process model suggested by this research is based on the presumption that the efficiency of the construction industry depends on many micro- and macrolevel variables. The presence of specific macro- and microlevel variable factors immediately imposes objective limitations for the efficient use of the resources of the construction industry. The construction industry, in the presence of these limitations, performs its functions within these constraints as efficiently as possible. For instance, construction organisations, being influenced by particular macro- and microlevel environment va...

Government debt as the integral portfolio of assets and liabilities generated by debt

The paper analyses the possibilities of optimal government (national) debt management, trying to maximize the made-up net value for the debtor with the help of funds borrowed by the government. The integral portfolio of debtor assets and debt service liabilities, based on the borrowed funds, is chosen as a solution for the above-described problem. In the paper, an asset is understood as a position of government expenditures, where funds borrowed by the government are used and create a quantifiable profit (value) or the measurable damage or loss is avoided if funds are borrowed. Actually, liabilities are the main debt service positions. Naturally, the value generated by assets, as well as funds spent to settle the liabilities, could be analytically adequately evaluated only in stochastic dimension. Consequently, multidimensional multicriteria stochastic optimization technique is used as a technical solution to the formulated problem. In analytical decisions, the budget funds borrowed by the government are treated as marginal funds. Taking into account a completely new decision technique that has been invoked for government debt management, the methods of decisions are described quite particularly.

Investment Decisions in Global Financial Markets: the Experience of Lithuania

The objective of this article is to identify the content of globalization processes in financial markets. The universal method of investment is offered in order to save the interests of investors – to expand the geography of investment, not leaving without attention innovative activities. This method has become global in financial market segment and thus strengthening the financial systems ability to contribute significantly to the globalization, sustainability and cost-effectiveness of education. Findings present sustainable return on investment possibilities. The analysed indicator is expected investment value, measured with a certain size of return and composition of reliability maximization.