Alessandro Turrini

Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union

Numerical fiscal rules implemented at the national level in member countries of the European Union offer useful information on possible reasons for the growing reliance on such rules, and on their implication for fiscal policy. Our analysis of a survey-based dataset suggests that both the introduction of the EU fiscal framework and country-specific fiscal governance features played a role in triggering introduction of numerical fiscal rules, and that the impact of rules is statistically significant, robust, and quantitatively important. Outcomes and rules may be jointly determined by unobserved political factors, but the evidence suggests that causality runs from rules to fiscal behaviour, and that rules specifically designed to prevent conflicts with the stabilization function of fiscal policy are indeed associated with less pro-cyclical policies. Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008.

Trade, wages, and 'superstars'

We study the effects globalization on wage inequality. Our global economy resembles Rosen (1981) Superstars economy, where a) innovations in production and communication technologies enable suppliers to reach a larger mass of consumers and to improve the (perceived) quality of their products and b) trade barriers fall. When transport costs fall, income is redistributed away from the non-exporting to the exporting sector of the economy. As the former turns out to employ workers of higher skill and pay, the effect is to raise wage inequality. Whether the least skilled are stand to lose or gain from improved production or communication technologies, in contrast, depends on whether technology is skill-complement or substitute. The model gives an intuitive explanation for the empirical regularities that skill intensity, market size and wages tend to be positively associated to exporting activity, across sectors and plants.

Adjusting Labour Demand: Multinational vs. National Firms A Cross-European Analysis

This paper provides a cross-country perspective to the firm-level analysis of the relation between foreign ownership and labour demand. We estimate labour demand equations in eleven European countries using dynamic panel data techniques on samples that permit to distinguish the ownership status of firms. We find that the employment adjustment is significantly faster in MNEs’ affiliates, irrespective of the country investigated. As for the wage elasticity of labour demand, MNEs show smaller elasticities compared with national firms, and very little variation across countries. Crosscountry correlations show that the relative value of wage elasticities in MNEs on that in NEs is positively related to country-level indexes of labour market regulation (employment protection, union presence,...). We interpret the results as follows. MNEs tend to have a more rigid demand for total labour (possibly due to a different skill composition). However, being MNEs relatively “footloose”, this difference tends to vanish as the rigidity of employment regulations rises.

Skills, Agglomeration and Segmentation

We investigate the role of skill heterogeneity in explaining location patterns induced by pecuniary externalities (Krugman (1991)). In our setting, sellers with higher skills perform better in the marketplace, and their sales are larger. Selling to distant locations leads to lower sales because of both (pecuniary) transport costs and communication costs that reduce the perceived quality of goods. A symmetry-breaking result is obtained: symmetric configurations cannot be stable, and regional inequality is inevitable. The relatively more skilled choose to stay in the location with higher aggregate income and skill, while the relatively less skilled stay in the other. The model allows us to analyse the links between the extent of interregional inequality and the extent of interpersonal skill inequality.

Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?

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The decision to invest in a low-wage country: Evidence from Italian textiles and clothing multinationals

In this paper we investigate the firm-specific factors that account for the decision to invest in low-wage countries on the part of Italian firms in the textiles and clothing sector. This analysis is motivated by the fact that our survey data show, between 1990 and 1997, a decline of average employment in parent companies, while that in subsidiaries grew substantially. However, correlation and regression analysis show that employment in parent companies that invested in low-wage countries only seems to be negatively related with employment abroad. Our hypothesis is that investments in cheap labour countries are mainly cost-driven and are undertaken by firms that focus on a low-quality, low-cost strategy. We test this hypothesis through a probit analysis. The evidence suggests that investments to cheap labour countries are more likely to be of a vertical type, being relatively more labour-intensive compared with the parent company. Our hypothesis seems to be confirmed empirically. Investments in low-wage countries are more likely to generate abundant intra-firm trade and to be undertaken by firms with low shares of skilled employment.

Wage Premia and Skill Upgrading in Italy: Why the Hound did not Bark

This paper presents firm level evidence on the dynamics of nonmanual wage premia and employment shares in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of aggregate wage premia and employment shares hides offsetting disaggregate forces. First, while technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, demand changes associated with exports reduce the relative demand for skills. Second, within the class of nonmanual workers, wage premia and employment shares of executives rise substantially, whereas those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. We also find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labour market dynamics, as exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the general validity of the conventional view that emphasizes the role of labor market institutions, as opposed to trade and technology, in determining wage and employment dynamics in continental Europe.

A remark on voters’ rationality in Besley and coate model of representative democracy

Voting games are characterized by the emergence of dominated strategies, that would be iteratively deleted by rational players. In this note we show, via an example, how applying iterated dominance restricts the set of equilibrium outcomes in Besley and Coate (1997) citizencandidate model of representative democracy.

Fiscal consolidation and unemployment: does EPL matter? A look at EU countries

This paper estimates the impact of fiscal consolidation on unemployment and job market flows across EU countries using a recent database of consolidation episodes built on the basis of a “narrative” approach (Devries et al., 2011). Results show that the impact of fiscal consolidation on cyclical unemployment is temporary and significant mostly for expenditure measures. As expected, the impact of fiscal policy shocks on job separation rates is much stronger in low-EPL countries, while for high-EPL countries there is a stronger reduction in the rate at which new jobs are created. Since a reduced job-finding rate corresponds to a longer average duration of unemployment spells, fiscal policy shocks also tend to have a stronger impact on long-term unemployment if EPL for permanent contracts is stricter.JEL codesE62, J63, J65

High-quality bias in vertically differentiated oligopolies—a note on skills, trade, and welfare

In a vertically differentiated Cournot oligopoly where the high-quality variant of the good requires the use of high-quality labor, firms may either all supply the same quality or differentiate their product. In differentiated configurations the number of firms choosing to supply the high-quality variant is generally above the optimum. The opening of trade between symmetric countries entails a pro-competitive effect that raises welfare through a reduction in average quality. This result contrasts with previous findings concerning the opening of trade in vertically differentiated oligopolistic industries (Gabszewicz, Shaked, Sutton, and Thisse,International Economic Review 22 [1981]; Shaked and Sutton, in Kierzkowski, ed.,Monopolistic Competition and International Trade, Oxford 1984).