Manmohan S. Kumar

Public Debt and Growth

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on whether crash probabilities are low or high. When we estimate the model on part of the data and then use the parameter estimates to generate predictions for the remainder of the sample, we find that substantial profits may be made. Furthermore, the model correctly forecasts major crashes even on an out-of-sample basis.

The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness

This paper analyzes the economic determinants of developing country creditworthiness indicators for over 60 developing countries for the period from 1980 to 1993. Our results indicate that economic fundamentals--the ratio of nongold foreign exchange reserves to imports, the ratio of the current account balance to GDP, growth, and inflation--explain a large amount of the variation in the credit ratings. All developing country ratings were adversely affected by increases in international interest rates, independent of the domestic economic fundamentals. A countrys regional location and the structure of its exports (such as whether it is primarily an exporter of fuel products or manufactured products) were also important.

Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

Public and Private Investment and the Growth Process in Developing Countries

This paper examines the relative contribution of public and private investment to per capita GDP growth in developing countries. It extends the basic neoclassical model of growth by separating investment into its public and private components, and estimates this model for a sample of ninety-five developing countries over the period 1970-90 using both cross-sectional and panel data. Using data on relative supplies of public and private capital stock, rates of return to public and private investment are also computed. The results suggest that once other determinants of growth, such as human capital formation, population growth, and technical progress, are taken into account, public and private investment have differential effects on growth, and that these effects are characterized by marked regional and inter-temporal variations. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Emerging Equity Markets in Middle Eastern Countries

Within a broad framework for analyzing portfolio flows to developing countries, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of equity markets in six Middle Eastern countries. The analysis, based primarily on a range of quantitative indicators, identifies the principal characteristics of these markets, including relative to international comparators, and examines associated structural features. This, along with an analysis of the informational efficiency of selected markets in the region, provides a basis for the subsequent review of policies for enhancing the role of equity markets in the macroeconomy of Middle Eastern countries while minimizing associated risks.

The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper discusses the role of fiscal institutions, including budget rules and non-partisan agencies, in enhancing fiscal discipline. A dynamic model of fiscal policy shows that optimal institutions lack credibility unless the costs to bypass them are sufficiently high. In our model, a combination of complete budgetary transparency and strong democratic accountability suffice to establish credibility. Under incomplete budgetary transparency, accountable governments may also use institutions as a signal of competence to increase their reelection chances, which in turn erodes the penchant for excessive deficits. In light of the theory, empirical tests of the effectiveness of institutions are undertaken. The results further emphasize that analysis should pay due attention to simultaneity bias (because disciplined governments may be more likely to adopt strict institutions). Also, interactions among different fiscal institutions, and between the latter and key features of the political system need to be explored further.

FISCAL RULES, FISCAL COUNCILS AND ALL THAT: COMMITMENT DEVICES, SIGNALING TOOLS OR SMOKESCREENS?

Xavier Debrun and Manmohan S. Kumar deal with the impact of institutions on fiscal discipline, first discussing the point in principle: (i) fiscal institutions can work as commitment devices (i.e. tie policymakers’ hands); (ii) they can work as signalling devices (i.e. reduce the information asymmetry between the electorate and policymakers); and (iii) they can be smokescreens. The second part of the paper develops an empirical analysis to test these three hypotheses, referring to descriptive evidence and estimating a multivariate panel model for a large sample of EU countries over the period 1990-2004. The authors use time-varying indices of fiscal rule restrictiveness and coverage. The analysis finds significant support for both commitment and signalling, little for the smokescreen hypothesis.

Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China

This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for China. It then applies a generational accounting framework to Chinese household income survey data. This analysis suggests that a sustained 1 percent of GDP increase in public expenditures, distributed equally across education, health, and pensions, would result in a permanent increase the household consumption ratio of 1¼ percentage points of GDP.

Fiscal Adjustments : Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.