Alex Frino

Short Sales Are Almost Instantaneously Bad News: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the market reaction to short sales on an intraday basis in a market setting where short sales are transparent immediately following execution. We find a mean reassessment of stock value following short sales of up to - 0.20 percent with adverse information impounded within fifteen minutes or twenty trades. Short sales executed near the end of the financial year and those related to arbitrage and hedging activities are associated with a smaller price reaction; trades near information events precipitate larger price reactions. The evidence is generally weaker for short sales executed using limit orders relative to market orders. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.

Tracking S&P 500 Index Funds

Although index funds have grown significantly in the 1990s, empirical research concerning these passive investment offerings is surprisingly scarce. While the theory and objectives of an index strategy are both simple and well known, potential difficulties arise for index managers attempting to replicate the returns of the target benchmark. The source of the problem is that the underlying index is measured as a paper portfolio, and there is an implication that simple duplication is achievable without cost. In reality, tracking error in index fund performance is unavoidable because of market frictions. The authors highlight the difficulties faced by index funds. They examine both the extent and the variation of tracking error over time for S&P 500 index mutual funds, and provide a direct performance comparison between index funds and active mutual funds. The findings indicate that S&P 500 index funds, on average, outperformed active funds after expenses over the sample period.

The accuracy of the tick test: Evidence from the Australian stock exchange

Abstract In the absence of information regarding whether a trade is buyer or seller initiated, many researchers have employed the ‘tick’ rule as a proxy. These researchers have been supported in their endeavours by the work of Lee and Ready (1991) which suggests that the tick rule is 90% accurate. Unfortunately, the difficulty of securing data on this issue has made Lee and Readys paper somewhat unique in that there have been few attempts to confirm their result in US markets and no attempts in other markets. The purpose of this work is to test the robustness of their result in the Australian securities market. Using cleaner intra-day data we mimic the Lee and Ready study to cast some doubt upon the robustness of their findings in different markets. Our results suggest an overall accuracy of approximately 74% as opposed to Lee and Readys 90%. However, accuracy in excess of 90% is documented when zero ticks are excluded. Further analysis provides evidence that a volatile or trending market will decrease the accuracy of the tick rule. It is also demonstrated that the tick rule is less likely to accurately classify seller initiated trades and small buyer initiated trades.

The Liquidity Of Automated Exchanges: New Evidence From German Bund Futures

Previous literature has suggested that automated exchanges such as the Deutsche Terminborse (DTB) may be less liquid than their open-outcry counterparts such as the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), although evidence provided on this issue has been mixed. This paper provides new evidence on the relative magnitudes of bid-ask spreads in the Bund contract traded on the DTB and LIFFE using intraday data from a period in which each exchanges share of total Bund trading was closer than previous research. The findings suggest that quoted bid-ask spreads are wider on the LIFFE than the DTB, even after controlling for their determinants. Furthermore, bid-ask spreads on the DTB increase more rapidly as price volatility increases relative to the LIFFE. Overall, this evidence implies that while automated exchanges are capable of providing more liquidity than floor traded exchanges, the relative performance of automated exchanges deteriorates during periods of higher volatility.

The Lead-Lag Relationship between Equities and Stock Index Futures Markets Around Information Releases

This paper documents a strengthening in the lead of stock index futures returns over stock index returns around macroeconomic information releases. Some evidence of a strengthening in feedback from the equities market to the futures market and weakening in the lead of the futures market around major stock‐specific information releases is also provided. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors with better marketwide information prefer to trade in stock index futures while investors with stock‐specific information prefer to trade in underlying stocks. A small weakening in the contemporaneous relationship between stock index futures returns and stock index returns around both types of releases is also documented. This is consistent with disintegration in the relationship between the two markets associated with noise induced volatility. One by‐product of this study is new comparative evidence on the performance of adjustments for infrequent trading of index stocks based on a commonly used ARMA technique versus recalculation of the stock index using quote midpoints. The results suggest that the quote midpoint index performs at least as well as the ARMA adjusted index across the entire sample period, as well as around the different types of information releases.

The Impact of Limit Order Anonymity on Liquidity: Evidence from Paris, Tokyo and Korea

This paper examines the impact of broker anonymity on bid-ask spreads in order driven markets. Previous theoretical research predicts that limit order anonymity results in deeper and more liquid markets. This paper examines this proposition using three natural experiments provided by Euronext Paris, the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Korea Stock Exchange. Euronext Paris and the Tokyo Stock Exchange removed broker identifiers from limit orders on April 23, 2001 and June 30, 2003, respectively. In contrast, the Korea Stock Exchange introduced broker identifiers for limit order books on October 25, 1999. The results provide evidence that altering limit order anonymity has an impact on liquidity. Consistent with expectations, liquidity is enhanced by increased anonymity and adversely affected by decreased anonymity.

Execution costs associated with institutional trades on the Australian Stock Exchange

Abstract This paper analyses the magnitude and determinants of execution costs associated with institutional trades on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), and compares the results with US findings. The results suggest that execution costs are small, and no greater than approximately 0.30% of the value of a round trip transaction. Purchases are found to be associated with greater execution costs than sales, and a price reversal follows purchases whilst a price continuation follows sales. All these results, apart from the latter, bear a remarkable similarity to US findings. An analysis of the determinants of execution costs suggests that market returns, the percentage of the order executed using market orders and the identity of the broker underlying the trade are significant explanatory variables. Further, stock liquidity and trade complexity are significant determinants of execution costs associated with purchases only.

Is Index Performance Achievable? An Analysis of Australian Equity Index Funds

This article examines the performance of index equity funds in Australia. Despite the significant growth in index funds since 1976, when the first index mutual fund was launched in the U.S., research on their performance is sparse in the U.S. and non-existent in Australia. This study documents the existence of significant tracking error for Australian index funds. For example, the magnitude of the difference between index fund returns and index returns averages between 7.4 and 22.3 basis points per month across index funds operating for more than five years. However, there is little evidence of bias in tracking error implying that these funds neither systematically outperform nor underperform their benchmark on a before cost basis. Further analysis provides evidence that the magnitude of tracking error is related to fund cash flows, market volatility, transaction costs and index replication strategies used by the manager.

Intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Australian evidence

Abstract This paper examines intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic information announcements on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Prior literature analysing intraday price behaviour around announcements is extended to trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads. The analysis of price volatility, trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads indicates that the majority of adjustment to new information occurs rapidly, within 240 seconds of the scheduled time for major announcements, with some evidence of abnormal activity prior to announcements. Analysis of quoted bid–ask spreads suggests that they significantly widen in the 20 seconds prior to announcements and remain significantly wider for 30 seconds following announcements. The increase in quoted spreads is related to both expected and unexpected volatility, implying that market participants increase quoted spreads around information announcements as a consequence of adverse selection costs.

Index Design and Implications for Index Tracking

Tracking error in index fund performance is unavoidable. It arises because the underlying index is measured as a paper portfolio, and it is assumed perfect replication can be achieved instantaneously and without cost. Tracking error has two components: exogenous tracking error (the result of index rules and maintenance procedures applied to the underlying index) and endogenous tracking error (the result of the individual activities of index managers managing open-end passive funds). An examination of a sample of S&P 500 index mutual funds upon changes to the Index Divisor identifies a number of exogenous factors that are important determinants of tracking error for S&P 500 index funds.