David R. Gallagher

Tracking S&P 500 Index Funds

Although index funds have grown significantly in the 1990s, empirical research concerning these passive investment offerings is surprisingly scarce. While the theory and objectives of an index strategy are both simple and well known, potential difficulties arise for index managers attempting to replicate the returns of the target benchmark. The source of the problem is that the underlying index is measured as a paper portfolio, and there is an implication that simple duplication is achievable without cost. In reality, tracking error in index fund performance is unavoidable because of market frictions. The authors highlight the difficulties faced by index funds. They examine both the extent and the variation of tracking error over time for S&P 500 index mutual funds, and provide a direct performance comparison between index funds and active mutual funds. The findings indicate that S&P 500 index funds, on average, outperformed active funds after expenses over the sample period.

Visualising changes in fund manager holdings in two and a half-dimensions

We explore a multiple view, or overview and detail, method for visualising a high-dimensional portfolio holdings data set with attributes that change over time. The method employs techniques from multidimensional scaling and graph visualisation to find a two-dimensional mapping for high-dimensional data. In both the overview and detail views, time is mapped to the third dimension providing a two and a half-dimensional view of changes in the data. We demonstrate the utility of the paradigm with a prototype system for visualisation of movements within a large set of UK fund managers’ stock portfolios.

Is Index Performance Achievable? An Analysis of Australian Equity Index Funds

This article examines the performance of index equity funds in Australia. Despite the significant growth in index funds since 1976, when the first index mutual fund was launched in the U.S., research on their performance is sparse in the U.S. and non-existent in Australia. This study documents the existence of significant tracking error for Australian index funds. For example, the magnitude of the difference between index fund returns and index returns averages between 7.4 and 22.3 basis points per month across index funds operating for more than five years. However, there is little evidence of bias in tracking error implying that these funds neither systematically outperform nor underperform their benchmark on a before cost basis. Further analysis provides evidence that the magnitude of tracking error is related to fund cash flows, market volatility, transaction costs and index replication strategies used by the manager.

Governance through Trading: Institutional Swing Trades and Subsequent Firm Performance

Using unique daily fund-manager trade data, we examine the role of institutional trading in influencing firm performance. We show that short-horizon informed trading by multiple institutional investors effectively disciplines corporate management. Our focus is on short-term “swing” trades, sequences with three phases (e.g., buy-sell-buy). We find swing trades increase stock price informativeness, are profitable after costs, and improve market efficiency. This increase in stock price informativeness is associated with subsequent firm outperformance. Trades are most beneficial with optimal stock holdings that reflect the information acquisition incentives of investors as well as liquidity costs.

Attribution of Investment Performance: an Analysis of Australian Pooled Superannuation Funds

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight-year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi-sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.

Index Design and Implications for Index Tracking

Tracking error in index fund performance is unavoidable. It arises because the underlying index is measured as a paper portfolio, and it is assumed perfect replication can be achieved instantaneously and without cost. Tracking error has two components: exogenous tracking error (the result of index rules and maintenance procedures applied to the underlying index) and endogenous tracking error (the result of the individual activities of index managers managing open-end passive funds). An examination of a sample of S&P 500 index mutual funds upon changes to the Index Divisor identifies a number of exogenous factors that are important determinants of tracking error for S&P 500 index funds.

International equity funds, performance, and investor flows: Australian evidence

This is the first paper in the Australian literature to examine the investment performance of actively managed international equity funds (domiciled in Australia). Both institutional and retail international equity funds are assessed together with the impacts of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. Performance is also evaluated using conditional measures that account for public information in the global economy, however, despite an improvement in the measurement of risk-adjusted returns, performance remains consistent with an efficient global market. These findings support prior research, which concludes that active management does not provide investors with superior returns to passive indices. When consideration is given to the liquidity service provided by active managers, fund flows are shown to negatively impact on performance.

The Performance of Active Australian Bond Funds

This paper examines the investment performance of active Australian bond funds and the impact of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. Security selection and market timing performance are evaluated using both unconditional models and conditional-performance evaluation techniques that account for public information and the time variation in risk. Overall, the results of this paper are consistent with the US and international evidence, documenting that performance is consistent with an efficient market. While actively managed institutional funds perform broadly in line with the index before expenses, the paper documents significant underperformance for retail Australian bond funds after fees. The study also documents that retail fund flows negatively impact on market timing coefficients.

Investment Manager Skill in Small-Cap Equities

Using a representative sample of monthly portfolio holdings and daily trades, this study presents unique evidence of significant stock selection skill amongst institutional small-cap equity managers on a risk-adjusted basis. Of particular importance is the magnitude of the performance generated by fund managers in our sample. Aggregate four-factor and five-factor alphas are 68 and 59.6 basis points per month before management expenses and tax, respectively. The evidence from holdings and transaction-based metrics of performance also reveals that small-cap equity managers possess superior stock selection ability, from both a statistical and economic perspective. Our results are robust to the deduction of transaction costs. Our research provides important non-U.S. evidence concerning the value of active management, in a market segment which exhibits both lower liquidity and lower analyst coverage.

Fund Size, Transaction Costs and Performance: Size Matters!

Recent studies find evidence that small funds outperform large funds. This fund size effect is commonly hypothesized to be caused by transaction costs. Due to the lack of transactions data, prior studies have investigated the transaction costs theory indirectly. Our study, however, analyses the daily transactions of active Australian equity managers and finds aggregate market impact costs incurred by large managers are significantly greater than those incurred by small managers. Furthermore, we show large managers exhibit preferences for trade package formation and portfolio characteristics consistent with transaction cost intimidation. We analyse the interaction between transaction cost intimidation and the fund size effect, and document that large managers pursuing a highly active trading strategy suffer more from fund size, than large funds following a more passive strategy. This suggests the fund size effect is related to transaction costs, as trading activity is a good proxy for expected market impact. Finally, based on a simulation experiment, we find that transaction cost intimidation is at least as important as the increase in market impact costs due to fund size.