Alex Vermeulen

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Analysis of synoptic-scale variations for the period 2002-2003

The ability to reliably estimate CO2 fluxes from current in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements and future satellite CO2 measurements is dependent on transport model performance at synoptic and shorter timescales. The TransCom continuous experiment was designed to evaluate the performance of forward transport model simulations at hourly, daily, and synoptic timescales, and we focus on the latter two in this paper. Twenty-five transport models or model variants submitted hourly time series of nine predetermined tracers (seven for CO2) at 280 locations. We extracted synoptic-scale variability from daily averaged CO2 time series using a digital filter and analyzed the results by comparing them to atmospheric measurements at 35 locations. The correlations between modeled and observed synoptic CO2 variabilities were almost always largest with zero time lag and statistically significant for most models and most locations. Generally, the model results using diurnally varying land fluxes were closer to the observations compared to those obtained using monthly mean or daily average fluxes, and winter was often better simulated than summer. Model results at higher spatial resolution compared better with observations, mostly because these models were able to sample closer to the measurement site location. The amplitude and correlation of model-data variability is strongly model and season dependent. Overall similarity in modeled synoptic CO2 variability suggests that the first-order transport mechanisms are fairly well parameterized in the models, and no clear distinction was found between the meteorological analyses in capturing the synoptic-scale dynamics.

CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements

This paper documents a global Bayesian variational inversion of CO2 surface fluxes during the period 1988-2008. Weekly fluxes are estimated on a 3.75 degrees x 2.5 degrees (longitude-latitude) grid throughout the 21 years. The assimilated observations include 128 station records from three large data sets of surface CO2 mixing ratio measurements. A Monte Carlo approach rigorously quantifies the theoretical uncertainty of the inverted fluxes at various space and time scales, which is particularly important for proper interpretation of the inverted fluxes. Fluxes are evaluated indirectly against two independent CO2 vertical profile data sets constructed from aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. The skill of the inversion is evaluated by the improvement brought over a simple benchmark flux estimation based on the observed atmospheric growth rate. Our error analysis indicates that the carbon budget from the inversion should be more accurate than the a priori carbon budget by 20% to 60% for terrestrial fluxes aggregated at the scale of subcontinental regions in the Northern Hemisphere and over a year, but the inversion cannot clearly distinguish between the regional carbon budgets within a continent. On the basis of the independent observations, the inversion is seen to improve the fluxes compared to the benchmark: the atmospheric simulation of CO2 with the Bayesian inversion method is better by about 1 ppm than the benchmark in the free troposphere, despite possible systematic transport errors. The inversion achieves this improvement by changing the regional fluxes over land at the seasonal and at the interannual time scales. (Less)

TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2 : experimental overview and diurnal cycle results for 2002

[1] A forward atmospheric transport modeling experiment has been coordinated by the TransCom group to investigate synoptic and diurnal variations in CO2. Model simulations were run for biospheric, fossil, and air-sea exchange of CO2 and for SF6 and radon for 2000-2003. Twenty-five models or model variants participated in the comparison. Hourly concentration time series were submitted for 280 sites along with vertical profiles, fluxes, and meteorological variables at 100 sites. The submitted results have been analyzed for diurnal variations and are compared with observed CO2 in 2002. Mean summer diurnal cycles vary widely in amplitude across models. The choice of sampling location and model level account for part of the spread suggesting that representation errors in these types of models are potentially large. Despite the model spread, most models simulate the relative variation in diurnal amplitude between sites reasonably well. The modeled diurnal amplitude only shows a weak relationship with vertical resolution across models; differences in near-surface transport simulation appear to play a major role. Examples are also presented where there is evidence that the models show useful skill in simulating seasonal and synoptic changes in diurnal amplitude.

Inverse modeling of European CH4 emissions 2001-2006

European CH4 emissions are estimated for the period 2001-2006 using a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) inverse modeling system, based on the atmospheric zoom model TM5. Continuous observations are used from various European monitoring stations, complemented by European and global flask samples from the NOAA/ESRL network. The available observations mainly provide information on the emissions from northwest Europe (NWE), including the UK, Ireland, the BENELUX countries, France and Germany. The inverse modeling estimates for the total anthropogenic emissions from NWE are 21% higher compared to the EDGARv4.0 emission inventory and 40% higher than values reported to U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Assuming overall uncertainties on the order of 30% for both bottom-up and top-down estimates, all three estimates can be still considered to be consistent with each other. However, the uncertainties in the uncertainty estimates prevent us from verifying (or falsifying) the bottom-up inventories in a strict sense. Sensitivity studies show some dependence of the derived spatial emission patterns on the set of atmospheric monitoring stations used, but the total emissions for the NWE countries appear to be relatively robust. While the standard inversions include a priori information on the spatial and temporal emission patterns from bottom-up inventories, a further sensitivity inversion without this a priori information results in very similar NWE country totals, demonstrating that the available observations provide significant constraints on the emissions from the NWE countries independent from bottom-up inventories.

Diurnal and vertical variability of the sensible heat and carbon dioxide budgets in the atmospheric surface layer

The diurnal and vertical variability of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric surface layer are studied by analyzing measurements from a 213 m tower in Cabauw (Netherlands). Observations of thermodynamic variables and CO2 mixing ratio as well as vertical profiles of the turbulent fluxes are used to retrieve the contribution of the budget terms in the scalar conservation equation. On the basis of the daytime evolution of turbulent fluxes, we calculate the budget terms by assuming that turbulent fluxes follow a linear profile with height. This assumption is carefully tested and the deviation from linearity is quantified. The budget calculation allows us to assess the importance of advection of heat and CO2 during day hours for three selected days. It is found that, under nonadvective conditions, the diurnal variability of temperature and CO2 is well reproduced from the flux divergence measurements. Consequently, the vertical transport due to the turbulent flux plays a major role in the daytime evolution of both scalars and the advection is a relatively small contribution. During the analyzed days with a strong contribution of advection of either heat or carbon dioxide, the flux divergence is still an important contribution to the budget. For heat, the quantification of the advection contribution is in close agreement with results from a numerical model. For carbon dioxide, we qualitatively corroborate the results with a Lagrangian transport model. Our estimation of advection is compared with traditional estimations based on the Net Ecosystem-atmosphere Exchange (NEE).

The impact of canopy exchange on differences observed between atmospheric deposition and throughfall fluxes

To study the impact of canopy exchange on differences observed between atmospheric deposition and throughfall fluxes, several-held experiments were performed at the Speulder forest in The Netherlands. Relevant information was obtained by (i) measuring open-field precipitation and throughfall fluxes with different time resolutions, using two canopy exchange models, (ii) by comparing results from surface wash experiments using real and artificial twigs, respectively, and (iii) by comparing throughfall flux estimates with atmospheric deposition estimates from micrometeorological measurements and inferential modelling. Canopy uptake of gases through stomata was estimated using measured air concentrations and a stomatal conductance model. Specific information on canopy leaching of soil-derived sulphate was provided by a S-35 tracer experiment. Sulphur was found to behave conservatively within the canopy, with SO2 uptake more or less balancing leaching of soil-derived SO42-. Significant stomatal uptake of NO2, HNO2 and NH3 was calculated as well as uptake of H+ and NH4+ from water layers covering the tree surface. Experiments did not indicate significant uptake of NO3- in solution. Canopy uptake of H+ and NH4+ was countered by leaching of K+, Ca2+ and Mg2+. Part of the leaching of K+, Ca2+ and Mg2+ (15%) took place along with weak organic acids. No significant canopy exchange was found for Na+ and Cl-. Differences observed between atmospheric deposition and throughfall fluxes could almost completely be explained by canopy exchange, the difference between NOy deposition and NO3- throughfall flux being the only exception. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd (Less)

Fog deposition on a coniferous forest in The Netherlands

Fog deposition in December 1992 and February 1993 (two periods of several days in which fog occurred) was monitored at the location Speulderbos in The Netherlands. Fog droplet deposition was measured with eddy correlation and samples of fog water were taken with a string collector. At the same time, throughfall deposition was measured and throughfall water was sampled. The occult (fog/cloud) deposition during these periods was 3.4 and 2.0 mg m(-2) s(-1), respectively Throughfall fluxes measured during these periods were a factor of three higher. The contribution of occult deposition to the total acid deposition to forests in The Netherlands is estimated to be about 5%. A clear relationship between the friction veracity u(*) and turbulent deposition velocity v(t) of fog droplets could be derived. The measured turbulent deposition-velocity for fog is half the deposition velocity for impulse v(m). Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd (Less)

Measurement of dry deposition of ammonia on a forest.

Ammonia concentration gradients above a Douglas fir canopy were measured from 16 August to 31 December 1989 by two automated high-precision thermodenuders at the location Speulderbos in The Netherlands. Concentration gradients were used to calculate the dry deposition flux of ammonia via flux-gradient theory. Meteorological data were obtained from a nearby tower. Ammonia concentrations were highly variable with highest values during the night. Concentration gradients were very small during daytime and quite large at night. Median values of the calculated deposition flux and deposition velocity were 0.1 microg m(-2) s(-1) and 3.2 cm s(-1) respectively (N=1624).

Inverse carbon dioxide flux estimates for the Netherlands

CO2 fluxes for the Netherlands and surroundings are estimated for the year 2008, from concentration measurements at four towers, using an inverse model. The results are compared to direct CO2 flux measurements by aircraft, for 6 flight tracks over the Netherlands, flown multiple times in each season. We applied the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Modeling system (RAMS) coupled to a simple carbon flux scheme (including fossil fuel), which was run at 10 km resolution, and inverted with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The domain had 6 eco-regions, and inversions were performed for the four seasons separately. Inversion methods with pixel-dependent and -independent parameters for each eco-region were compared. The two inversion methods, in general, yield comparable flux averages for each eco-region and season, whereas the difference from the prior flux may be large. Posterior fluxes co-sampled along the aircraft flight tracks are usually much closer to the observations than the priors, with a comparable performance for both inversion methods, and with best performance for summer and autumn. The inversions showed more negative CO2 fluxes than the priors, though the latter are obtained from a biosphere model optimized using the Fluxnet database, containing observations from more than 200 locations worldwide. The two different crop ecotypes showed very different CO2 uptakes, which was unknown from the priors. The annual-average uptake is practically zero for the grassland class and for one of the cropland classes, whereas the other cropland class had a large net uptake, possibly because of the abundance of maize there.

A European summertime CO2 biogenic flux inversion at mesoscale from continuous in situ mixing ratio measurements

A regional variational inverse modeling system for the estimation of European biogenic CO2 fluxes is presented. This system is based on a 50 km horizontal resolution configuration of a mesoscale atmospheric transport model and on the adjoint of its tracer transport code. It exploits hourly CO2 in situ data from 15 CarboEurope-Integrated Project stations. Particular attention in the inversion setup is paid to characterizing the transport model error and to selecting the observations to be assimilated as a function of this error. Comparisons between simulations and data of CO2 and Rn-222 concentrations indicate that the model errors should have a standard deviation which is less than 7 ppm when simulating the hourly variability of CO2 at low altitude during the afternoon and evening or at high altitude at night. Synthetic data are used to estimate the uncertainty reduction for the fluxes using this inverse modeling system. The improvement brought by the inversion to the prior estimate of the fluxes for both the mean diurnal cycle and the monthly to synoptic variability in the fluxes and associated mixing ratios are checked against independent atmospheric data and eddy covariance flux measurements. Inverse modeling is conducted for summers 2002-2007 which should reduce the uncertainty in the biogenic fluxes by similar to 60% during this period. The trend in the mean flux corrections between June and September is to increase the uptake of CO2 by similar to 12 gCm(-2). Corrections at higher resolution are also diagnosed that reveal some limitations of the underlying prior model of the terrestrial biosphere. (Less)