Alex William Trew

Finance and Growth: A Critical Survey

We present a survey of the finance-growth nexus that raises a number of qualifications to the mainstream interpretation. Doubts regarding empirical consensus are investigated and we consider the prevalence of cross-section econometrics as dominant in shaping the present theoretical consensus. To facilitate a quantitative understanding of the theoretical literature we develop a model capable of capturing a number of key conclusions from theoretical research. The core implications of many finance and growth theories are shown to be disconnected not only from their modern empirical counterparts, but also from the historical literature.

Efficiency, Depth and Growth: Quantitative Implications of Finance and Growth Theory

We develop a parsimonious finance and endogenous growth model with microeconomic frictions in entrepreneurship and a role for credit constraints. We demonstrate that though an efficiency-growth relation will always exist, the efficiency-depth-growth relation may not. This has implications for the connection between the theory and empirics of finance and growth. We go on to ask whether the model can account for some historical trends in growth, financial depth and financial efficiency for the UK over the period 1850-1913. The best model of finance and growth is one that departs from the standard depth-growth link.

Finance and Balanced Growth

We study the relationships between various concepts of financial development and balanced economic growth. A model of endogenous growth that incorporates roles for both financial efficiency and access to financial services permits a better understanding of the relationship between the size of the financial sector (value added) and growth. Higher financial value added results from some, but not all, kinds of finance-driven growth. If greater access rather than greater efficiency generates higher growth, then value added and growth can be positively correlated. We present some preliminary empirical results that support the importance of access alongside efficiency in explaining cross-country variations in growth.

Endogenous Financial Development and Industrial Takeoff

There is a large and growing literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. It suggests a positive causal link running from finance to growth. We consider, in broad terms, the existing historical evidence on this connection. We demonstrate that constraints on investment finance occur primarily in the presence of fixed costs. Investments in physical transport infrastructures are prime examples of projects in which financial constraints can retard industrial growth. Furthermore, an appreciation of spatial and dynamic elements is central: Infrastructure development was privately financed by spatially concentrated coalitions of modest investors. We contrast the institutional environment in Britain with that in continental Europe. We develop a theory of finance and growth that can account for the disaggregated and dynamic nature of the finance and development of infrastructure.

Transaction Costs and Institutions: Investments in Exchange

Abstract This paper proposes a simple model for understanding transaction costs – their composition, size and policy implications. We distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the cost of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk adverse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.