Alexander M. Aiken

Progression to Active Tuberculosis, but Not Transmission, Varies by Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lineage in The Gambia

BACKGROUND There is considerable variability in the outcome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. We hypothesized that Mycobacterium africanum was less likely than M. tuberculosis to transmit and progress to tuberculosis disease. METHODS In a cohort study of patients with tuberculosis and their household contacts in The Gambia, we categorized 1808 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts according to exposure to M. tuberculosis or M. africanum. Positive skin test results indicated transmission, and development of tuberculosis during 2 years of follow-up indicated progression to disease. RESULTS Transmission rates were similar, but rates of progression to disease were significantly lower in contacts exposed to M. africanum than in those exposed to M. tuberculosis (1.0% vs. 2.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 3.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-8.7]). Within M. tuberculosis sensu stricto, contacts exposed to a Beijing family strain were most likely to progress to disease (5.6%; HR relative to M. africanum, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.0-22]). CONCLUSIONS M. africanum and M. tuberculosis transmit equally well to household contacts, but contacts exposed to M. africanum are less likely to progress to tuberculosis disease than those exposed to M. tuberculosis. The variable rate of progression by lineage suggests that tuberculosis variability matters in clinical settings and should be accounted for in studies evaluating tuberculosis vaccines and treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection.

Longitudinal Assessment of an ELISPOT Test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

Background Very little longitudinal information is available regarding the performance of T cell-based tests for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. To address this deficiency, we conducted a longitudinal assessment of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot test (ELISPOT) test in comparison to the standard tuberculin skin test (TST). Methods and Findings In tuberculosis (TB) contacts we repeated ELISPOT tests 3 mo (n = 341) and 18 mo (n = 210) after recruitment and TSTs at 18 mo (n = 130). We evaluated factors for association with conversion and reversion and investigated suspected cases of TB. Of 207 ELISPOT-negative contacts, 51 (24.6%) had 3-mo ELISPOT conversion, which was associated with a positive recruitment TST (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–5.0, p = 0.048) and negatively associated with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2–1.0, p = 0.06). Of 134 contacts, 54 (40.2%) underwent 3-mo ELISPOT reversion, which was less likely in those with a positive recruitment TST (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1–0.8, p = 0.014). Between 3 and 18 mo, 35/132 (26.5%) contacts underwent ELISPOT conversion and 28/78 (35.9%) underwent ELISPOT reversion. Of the 210 contacts with complete results, 73 (34.8%) were ELISPOT negative at all three time points; 36 (17.1%) were positive at all three time points. Between recruitment and 18 mo, 20 (27%) contacts had ELISPOT conversion; 37 (50%) had TST conversion, which was associated with a positive recruitment ELISPOT (OR 7.2, 95% CI 1.4–37.1, p = 0.019); 18 (32.7%) underwent ELISPOT reversion; and five (8.9%) underwent TST reversion. Results in 13 contacts diagnosed as having TB were mixed, but suggested higher TST sensitivity. Conclusions Both ELISPOT conversion and reversion occur after M. tuberculosis exposure. Rapid ELISPOT reversion may reflect M. tuberculosis clearance or transition into dormancy and may contribute to the relatively low reported ELISPOT conversion rate. Therefore, a negative ELISPOT test for M. tuberculosis infection should be interpreted with caution.

Incidence of Tuberculosis and the Predictive Value of ELISPOT and Mantoux Tests in Gambian Case Contacts

Background Studies of Tuberculosis (TB) case contacts are increasingly being utilised for understanding the relationship between M. tuberculosis and the human host and for assessing new interventions and diagnostic tests. We aimed to identify the incidence rate of new TB cases among TB contacts and to relate this to their initial Mantoux and ELISPOT test results. Methods and Findings After initial Mantoux and ELISPOT tests and exclusion of co-prevalent TB cases, we followed 2348 household contacts of sputum smear positive TB cases. We visited them at 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and 24 months, and investigated those with symptoms consistent with TB. Those who were diagnosed separately at a government clinic had a chest x-ray. Twenty six contacts were diagnosed with definite TB over 4312 person years of follow-up (Incidence rate 603/100,000 person years; 95% Confidence Interval, 370–830). Nine index and secondary case pairs had cultured isolates available for genotyping. Of these, 6 pairs were concordant and 3 were discordant. 2.5% of non-progressors were HIV positive compared to 12% of progressors (HR 6.2; 95% CI 1.7–22.5; p = 0.010). 25 secondary cases had initial Mantoux results, 14 (56%) were positive ; 21 had initial ELISPOT results, 11 (52%) were positive; 15 (71%) of 21 tested were positive by one or the other test. Of the 6 contacts who had concordant isolates with their respective index case, 4 (67%) were Mantoux positive at recruitment, 3 (50%) were ELISPOT positive; 5 (83%) were positive by one or other of the two tests. ELISPOT positive contacts, and those with discordant results, had a similar rate of progression to those who were Mantoux positive. Those negative on either or both tests had the lowest rate of progression. Conclusions The incidence rate of TB disease in Gambian TB case contacts, after screening for co-prevalent cases, was 603/100,000 person years. Since initial ELISPOT test and Mantoux tests were each positive in only just over half of cases, but 71% were positive by one or other test, positivity by either might be the best indication for preventive treatment. These data do not support the replacement of the Mantoux test by an ELISPOT test in The Gambia or similar settings.

Reversion of the ELISPOT test after treatment in Gambian tuberculosis cases

BackgroundNew tools are required to improve tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment, including enhanced ability to compare new treatment strategies. The ELISPOT assay uses Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antigens to produce a precise quantitative readout of the immune response to pathogen. We hypothesized that TB patients in The Gambia would have reduced ELISPOT counts after successful treatment.MethodsWe recruited Gambian adults with sputum smear and culture positive tuberculosis for ELISPOT assay and HIV test, and followed them up one year later to repeat testing and document treatment outcome. We used ESAT-6, CFP-10 and Purified Protein Derivative (PPD) as stimulatory antigens. We confirmed the reliability of our assay in 23 volunteers through 2 tests one week apart, comparing within and between subject variation.ResultsWe performed an ELISPOT test at diagnosis and 12 months later in 89 patients. At recruitment, 70/85 HIV-negative patients (82%) were ESAT-6 or CFP-10 (EC) ELISPOT positive, 77 (90%) were PPD ELISPOT positive. Eighty-two cases (96%) successfully completed treatment: 44 (55%; p < 0.001) were EC ELISPOT negative at 12 months, 17 (21%; p = 0.051) were PPD ELISPOT negative. Sixty (73%) cured cases had a CFP-10 ELISPOT count decrease, 64 (78%) had an ESAT-6 ELISPOT count decrease, 58 (70%) had a PPD ELISPOT count decrease. There was a mean decline of 25, 44 and 47 SFU/2 × 105 cells for CFP-10, ESAT-6 and PPD respectively (p < 0.001 for all). Three of 4 HIV positive patients were cured, all 3 underwent ELISPOT reversion; all 4 not cured subjects (3 HIV-negative, 1 HIV positive) were ESAT-6, CFP-10 and PPD ELISPOT positive at 12 months.ConclusionSuccessful tuberculosis treatment is accompanied by a significant reduction in the M. tuberculosis-specific antigen ELISPOT count. The ELISPOT has potential as a proxy measure of TB treatment outcome. Further investigation into the decay kinetics of T-cells with treatment is warranted.

Risk and causes of paediatric hospital-acquired bacteraemia in Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya: a prospective cohort study

Summary Background In sub-Saharan Africa, community-acquired bacteraemia is an important cause of illness and death in children. Our aim was to establish the magnitude and causes of hospital-acquired (nosocomial) bacteraemia in African children. Methods We reviewed prospectively collected surveillance data of 33 188 admissions to Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, between April 16, 2002, and Sept 30, 2009. We defined bacteraemia as nosocomial if it occurred 48 h or more after admission. We estimated the per-admission risk, daily rate, effect on mortality, and microbial cause of nosocomial bacteraemia and analysed risk factors by multivariable Cox regression. The effect on morbidity was measured as the increase in hospital stay by comparison with time-matched patients without bacteraemia. Findings The overall risk of nosocomial bacteraemia during this period was 5·9/1000 admissions (95% CI 5·2–6·9) but we recorded an underlying rise in risk of 27% per year. The incidence was 1·0/1000 days in hospital (0·87–1·14), which is about 40 times higher than that of community-acquired bacteraemia in the same region. Mortality in patients with nosocomial bacteraemia was 53%, compared with 24% in community-acquired bacteraemia and 6% in patients without bacteraemia. In survivors, nosocomial bacteraemia lengthened hospital stay by 10·1 days (3·0–17·2). Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter spp, group D streptococci, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa accounted for three-quarters of nosocomial infections. Nosocomial bacteraemia was significantly associated with severe malnutrition (hazard ratio 2·52, 95% CI 1·79–3·57) and blood transfusion in children without severe anaemia (4·99; 3·39–7·37). Interpretation Our findings show that although nosocomial bacteraemia is rare, it has serious effects on morbidity and mortality, and the microbiological causes are distinct from those of community-acquired bacteraemia. Nosocomial infections are largely unrecognised or undocumented as a health risk in low-income countries, but they are likely to become public health priorities as awareness of their occurrence increases and as other prominent childhood diseases are progressively controlled. Funding Wellcome Trust.

Re-analysis of health and educational impacts of a school-based deworming programme in western Kenya: a pure replication

Background: Helminth (worm) infections cause morbidity among poor communities worldwide. An influential study conducted in Kenya in 1998–99 reported that a school-based drug-and-educational intervention had benefits regarding worm infections and school attendance. Effects were seen among children treated with deworming drugs, untreated children in intervention schools and children in nearby non-intervention schools. Combining these effects, the intervention was reported to increase school attendance by 7.5% in treated children. Effects on other outcomes (worm infections, anaemia, nutritional status and examination performance) were also investigated. Methods: In this pure replication, we used data provided by the original authors to re-analyse the study according to their methods. We compared these results against those presented in the original paper. Results: Although most results were reproduced as originally reported, we identified discrepancies of several types between the original findings and re-analysis. For worm infections, re-analysis showed reductions similar to those originally reported. For anaemia prevalence, in contrast to the original findings, re-analysis found no evidence of benefit. For nutritional status, both original findings and re-analysis described modest evidence for a small improvement. For school attendance, re-analysis showed benefits similar to those originally found in intervention schools for both children who did and those who did not receive deworming drugs. However, after correction of coding errors, there was little evidence of an indirect effect on school attendance among children in schools close to intervention schools. Combining these effects gave a total increase in attendance of 3.9% among treated children, which was no longer statistically significant. As in the original results, re-analysis found no effect of the intervention on examination performance. Conclusions: Re-applying analytical approaches originally used, but correcting various errors, we found little evidence for some previously-reported indirect effects of a deworming intervention. Effects on worm infections, nutritional status, examination performance and school attendance on children in intervention schools were largely unchanged.

Re-analysis of health and educational impacts of a school-based deworming programme in western Kenya: a statistical replication of a cluster quasi-randomized stepped-wedge trial

Introduction: Helminth (worm) infections cause morbidity among poor communities worldwide. An influential study conducted in Kenya in 1998–99 reported that a school-based drug-and-educational intervention had benefits for worm infections and school attendance. Methods: In this statistical replication, we re-analysed data from this cluster quasi-randomized stepped-wedge trial, specifying two co-primary outcomes: school attendance and examination performance. We estimated intention-to-treat effects using year-stratified cluster-summary analysis and observation-level random-effects regression, and combined both years with a random-effects model accounting for year. The participants were not blinded to allocation status, and other interventions were concurrently conducted in a sub-set of schools. A protocol guiding outcome data collection was not available. Results: Quasi-randomization resulted in three similar groups of 25 schools. There was a substantial amount of missing data. In year-stratified cluster-summary analysis, there was no clear evidence for improvement in either school attendance or examination performance. In year-stratified regression models, there was some evidence of improvement in school attendance [adjusted odds ratios (aOR): year 1: 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88–2.52, P = 0.147; year 2: 1.23, 95% CI 1.01–1.51, P = 0.044], but not examination performance (adjusted differences: year 1: −0.135, 95% CI −0.323–0.054, P = 0.161; year 2: −0.017, 95% CI −0.201–0.166, P = 0.854). When both years were combined, there was strong evidence of an effect on attendance (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.74–1.91, P < 0.001), but not examination performance (adjusted difference −0.121, 95% CI −0.293–0.052, P = 0.169). Conclusions: The evidence supporting an improvement in school attendance differed by analysis method. This, and various other important limitations of the data, caution against over-interpretation of the results. We find that the study provides some evidence, but with high risk of bias, that a school-based drug-treatment and health-education intervention improved school attendance and no evidence of effect on examination performance.

Interventional studies for preventing surgical site infections in sub-Saharan Africa – A systematic review

Background There is a great need for safe surgical services in sub-Saharan Africa, but a major difficulty of performing surgery in this region is the high risk of post-operative surgical site infection (SSI). Methods We aimed to systematically review which interventions had been tested in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce the risk of SSI and to synthesize their findings. We searched Medline, Embase and Global Health databases for studies published between 1995 and 2010 without language restrictions and extracted data from full-text articles. Findings We identified 24 relevant articles originating from nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The methodological quality of these publications was diverse, with inconsistency in definitions used for SSI, period and method of post-operative follow-up and classification of wound contamination. Although it was difficult to synthesise information between studies, there was consistent evidence that use of single-dose pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis could reduce, sometimes dramatically, the risk of SSI. Several studies indicated that alcohol-based handrubs could provide a low-cost alternative to traditional surgical hand-washing methods. Other studies investigated the use of drains and variants of surgical technique. There were no African studies found relating to several other promising SSI prevention strategies, including use of checklists and SSI surveillance. Conclusions There is extremely limited research from sub-Saharan Africa on interventions to curb the occurrence of SSI. Although some of the existing studies are weak, several high-quality studies have been published in recent years. Standard methodological approaches to this subject are needed.

Carriage of Staphylococcus aureus in Thika Level 5 Hospital, Kenya : a cross-sectional study

BackgroundMethicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is an important nosocomial pathogen but little is known about its circulation in hospitals in developing countries. We aimed to describe carriage of S.aureus amongst inpatients in a mid-sized Kenyan government hospital.MethodsWe determined the frequency of S.aureus and MRSA carriage amongst inpatients in Thika Hospital, Kenya by means of repeated cross-sectional ward surveys. For all S.aureus isolates, we performed antibiotic susceptibility tests, genomic profiling using a DNA microarray and spa typing and MLST.ResultsIn this typical mid-sized Kenyan Government hospital, we performed 950 screens for current carriage of S.aureus amongst inpatients over a four month period. We detected S.aureus carriage (either MSSA or MRSA) in 8.9% (85/950; 95%CI 7.1-10.8) of inpatient screens, but patients with multiple screens were more likely have detection of carriage. MRSA carriage was rare amongst S.aureus strains carried by hospital inpatients – only 7.0% (6/86; 95%CI 1.5-12.5%) of all isolates were MRSA. Most MRSA (5/6) were obtained from burns patients with prolonged admissions, who only represented a small proportion of the inpatient population. All MRSA strains were of the same clone (MLST ST239; spa type t037) with concurrent resistance to multiple antibiotic classes. MSSA isolates were diverse and rarely expressed antibiotic resistance except against benzyl-penicillin and co-trimoxazole.ConclusionsAlthough carriage rates for S.aureus and the MRSA prevalence in this Kenyan hospital were both low, burns patient were identified as a high risk group for carriage. The high frequency of genetically indistinguishable isolates suggests that there was local transmission of both MRSA and MSSA.

Evaluation of surveillance for surgical site infections in Thika Hospital, Kenya

Summary Background In low-income countries, surgical site infections (SSIs) are a very frequent form of hospital-acquired infection. Surveillance is an important method for controlling SSI but it is unclear how this can best be performed in low-income settings. Aim To examine the epidemiological characteristics of various components of an SSI surveillance programme in a single Kenyan hospital. Methods The study assessed the inter-observer consistency of the surgical wound class (SWC) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scores using the kappa statistic. Post-discharge telephone calls were evaluated against an outpatient clinician review ‘gold standard’. The predictive value of components of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – National Healthcare Safety Network (CDC-NHNS) risk index was examined in patients having major obstetric or gynaecological surgery (O&G) between August 2010 and February 2011. Findings After appropriate training, surgeons and anaesthetists were found to be consistent in their use of the SWC and ASA scores respectively. Telephone calls were found to have a sensitivity of 70% [95% confidence interval (CI): 47–87] and a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 95–100) for detection of post-discharge SSI in this setting. In 954 patients undergoing major O&G operations, the SWC score was the only parameter in the CDC-NHNS risk index model associated with the risk of SSI (odds ratio: 4.00; 95% CI: 1.21–13.2; P = 0.02). Conclusions Surveillance for SSI can be conducted in a low-income hospital setting, although dedicated staff, intensive training and local modifications to surveillance methods are necessary. Surveillance for post-discharge SSI using telephone calls is imperfect but provides a practical alternative to clinic-based diagnosis. The SWC score was the only predictor of SSI risk in O&G surgery in this context.