Alexander Raikov

E-Expertise: Modern Collective Intelligence

This book focuses on organization and mechanisms of expert decision-making support using modern information and communication technologies, as well as information analysis and collective intelligence technologies (electronic expertise or simply e-expertise). Chapter 1 (E-Expertise) discusses the role of e-expertise in decision-making processes. The procedures of e-expertise are classified, their benefits and shortcomings are identified and the efficiency conditions are considered. Chapter 2 (Expert Technologies and Principles) provides a comprehensive overview of modern expert technologies. A special emphasis is placed on the specifics of e-expertise. Moreover, the authors study the feasibility and reasonability of employing well-known methods and approaches in e-expertise. Chapter 3 (E-Expertise: Organization and Technologies) describes some examples of up-to-date technologies to perform e-expertise. Chapter 4 (Trust Networks and Competence Networks) deals with the problems of expert finding and grouping by information and communication technologies. Chapter 5 (Active Expertise) treats the problem of expertise stability against any strategic manipulation by experts or coordinators pursuing individual goals. The book addresses a wide range of readers interested in management, decision-making and expert activity in political, economic, social and industrial spheres.

Convergent Cognitype for Speeding-up the Strategic Conversation

Abstract For speeding-up consent achievement in a team it is worth to utilize stabilization and convergence strategic conversation (meeting) technologies in coordination processes of mutual understanding amongst the team members regarding targets and actions. These technologies are based on fundamental thermo-dynamical relations, quantum effects and on ill-defined (ill-posed) problem solution methods in topological spaces. Developed methodology was realized as a Situation center. Approach was verified through many branch and corporate strategies.

Convergent Decision Support System with Genetic Algorithms and Cognitive Simulation

Abstract For speeding-up consent achievement in a group of distributed actors it is worth to stabilize and organize underlying factors. For coordination and for mutual understanding among group members, we propose technology, which is based on fundamental thermo-dynamical principles and utilizes soft computing, cognitive simulations and ill-defined problem solution techniques. Based on proposed methodology a cloud service is realized. System was tested on a number of real life problems during branch and corporate strategies development.

Network information attacks on the control systems of power facilities belonging to the critical infrastructure

The most large-scale accidents occurred as a consequence of network information attacks on the control systems of power facilities belonging to the United States’ critical infrastructure are analyzed in the context of possibilities available in modern decision support systems. Trends in the development of technologies for inflicting damage to smart grids are formulated. A volume matrix of parameters characterizing attacks on facilities is constructed. A model describing the performance of a critical infrastructure’s control system after an attack is developed. The recently adopted measures and legislation acts aimed at achieving more efficient protection of critical infrastructure are considered. Approaches to cognitive modeling and networked expertise of intricate situations for supporting the decision-making process, and to setting up a system of indicators for anticipatory monitoring of critical infrastructure are proposed.

Strategic Planning of Science City Socioeconomic Development

A Science City (SC) is an urban development vision of a Smart City that includes a powerful city-forming scientific-industrial complex in an advanced fashion with a view to managing a city’s assets and human capital. Therefore, the strategic planning of the SC’s socioeconomic development requires as special scientific-industrial and cultural marketing analysis involving citizens in strategic processes (civic participation). Certain factors should be considered, such as the fact that SC strategic planning must be coordinated with the federal government and regional authorities, as citizens are demanding more accountability from the government and it is necessary to create conditions for networked group self-organization. So, SC strategic planning has become a transparent networked multilevel decision-making process where marketing analysis and civic participation are the challenge for Smart City strategic planning methodology. Under such conditions this paper aims to develop the author’s convergent approach (CA), which would help to accelerate the networked strategic meetings by applying Situational Center, Cognitive Modeling, Genetic Algorithm, and Big Data analysis technology for the verification of cognitive models. This study is an attempt to address the issue of applying CA for accelerating SC strategic planning with civic participation and marketing analysis. To portray the issue of scientific-industrial complex and cultural marketing analysis in these terms, Quality Function Deployment was used. This ground was tested in the SC strategic planning process in the SCs of Korolev and Fryazino, Moscow Region, Russia. It was shown that the CA helps to speed up the traditional strategic planning significantly.

Expert Technologies and Principles

This chapter pretends to be a navigator over expert technologies. It describes the basic stages and methods of expertise, methods of expert grouping, typical errors, as well as the general technology of expertise organization and its principles. Finally, we discuss some prediction problems. The exposition par excellence proceeds from generalization of well-known classical statements (see the theory of expert appraisals) with emphasizing the specifics of e-expertise.

E-Expertise: Organization and Technologies

Figure 3.1 demonstrates the institutional organization of e-expertise. In what follows, we discuss it in detail, i.e., provide a list of feasible technologies, study different forms such as polling, electronic brainstorming, etc.

Trust Networks and Competence Networks

Expert finding for specific e-expertise is a multidisciplinary problem at the junction of strategic analysis, decision-making theory, synergy, inverse problem solution, human capital and emotional potential assessment, motivation control, quantum semantics, knowledge management, organizational analysis, information retrieval (acquisition, indexing, storage of artefacts and other evidence of expert knowledge), and analysis of social and organizational networks. It seems often difficult or even impossible to localize potential experts in an organization. The reasons consist in very many employees of an organization, its functionally and/or geographically dispersed character. What is more important, problem solving may require inviting experts from related or totally different subject domains.

Intellectual information technologies in management

This paper discusses problem situations in the development of intellectual technologies for analytical, cognitive, and situation centers; estimates difficulties in providing information and linguistic support for intellectual technologies; and analyzes their development dynamics over the last 50 years.

A team decision-making support archetype based on the inverse problem

This paper describes one strategic negotiation technology using the intellectual potential of an expert team along with sustainable consensus building when working out a managerial decision based on the convergent cognitive archetype.