Dmitry A. Novikov

TEAM BUILDING UNDER PARETO UNCERTAINTY

Abstract Game-theoretical models of team-building and team incentive problems are described. Solutions of these problems are obtained for the case of probabilistic uncertainty of the team members abilities. Conditions of team «vitality» are formulated in terms of the distribution and the reservation utility properties.

COLLECTIVE LEARNING-BY-DOING

Abstract Models of iterative learning, implemented during the professional activity, are considered. The problem of optimal collective learning (task allocation between the team members) is formulated and solved.

GAME-THEORETICAL MODELS OF TEAM BUILDING

Abstract Nowadays, in spite of great amount of qualitative discussions in management about the teams’ role, there are no formal models of team building and functioning. The paper considers the model, based on the concept of the reflexive game, which describes and explains team building in terms of hierarchy of agents’ beliefs about types of each other. The analysis allows concluding that the stability of team is also possible under false consistent beliefs of its members. Formal model of the team building process leads to the corresponding management problem.

Intelligent Control of Industrial Processes

Abstract The paper analyzes the problems of intelligent production control subject to world economy trends. It discusses the evolution of the problem of integrated plant floor and plant logistics control and overviews the state-of-the-art control theory methods and the ways to apply them in production control.

MODELS OF REFLEXIVE COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR

Abstract Game-theoretical models of collective behavior are considered under the assumption that agents are different in their decision-making reflexion levels. The dependence between agents’ partitioning in reflexion levels and stable outcomes of their interaction is explored. Two models – consensus problem and the stock market pricing – are given as the illustration of the reflexivity role.

Methodological Foundations of the Digital Economy

The complex activity of human is a fundamental element of any economy, including a digital one. In connection with the above, the development of methodological aspects of integrated activities is an urgent task. The methodological basis of the research is a system analysis, as well as the theory of multi-agent systems. The main trends distinguishing the “digital” economy from “non-digital” one are highlighted based on the systematic approach. The concept of complex activity (CA) is defined and the ontology of the basic concepts of CA methodology is offered. An integrated and coordinated system of CA models is introduced: the basic model of the structural element of activity (SEA), which is the main atomic element of CA representation and analysis; logical model of CA, reflecting the structure of the objectives of the activity and the hierarchy of subordination of elements of the CA; causal model of CA, describing the cause-effect relationship between the elements of CA and, in fact, CA technology; process model that reflects the life cycle of activity and its elements. The role of information in the process of implementing the CA is considered. Significant factors of the role of information (information model) in the CA technology and, as a consequence, in the economy, are revealed. The chapter shows the possibility of constructive representation of complex activities in the form of multi-agent models. The stated results create the methodological bases for the analysis and construction of the digital economy as an integrated system.

The Problem of Optimal Macroeconomic Regulations

By employing systems analysis and modeling techniques, this chapter establishes a stage for us to address the problem of international contagion of financial crises, and how future financial crises could be better contained by making use of the language of systems science. In particular, this chapter develops the general concept of optimal regulation (control) of challenging economic situations. It looks at different scenarios on how particular problems of economic optimization can be formulated and when different versions of optimal regulation could come into play. One practical implication is that the established concept of optimal economic regulations can be directly employed in managing difficult economic and financial situations.

Reflexion in mathematical models of decision-making

Abstract The paper is devoted to a generalization of static and dynamic mathematical models of behavior with explicitly stated reflexive models of agents’ decision-making. Reflexion is considered as agent’s beliefs about nature, opponents’ beliefs and opponents’ decision-making principles in the framework of game theory, collective behavior theory and learning models.

Analytical Complexity and Errors of Solving Control Problems for Organizational and Technical Systems

This paper suggests an estimation procedure for the analytical complexity and errors of solving control problems for organizational and technical systems using uniform search. It is demonstrated that, first, attempts to reduce errors cause complexity rise; second, complexity goes down as the number of levels in a control hierarchy is increased (under decomposition of control problems); and third, errors and complexity are natural restrictors for the growth of organizational hierarchies and application of complex control mechanisms as well as stimulate the choice of typical solutions (patterns).

General-System Approach to the Development of Complex Activity Technology

Abstract The paper presents a uniform approach to general-system analysis of complex production activity (CPA). The formal description of CPA is based including the model of a structural element of activity and the structural models of CPA. The role of uncertainty in CPA and its technology development is discussed. A general-system algorithm of CPA technology development is described. It is demonstrated that the development of the CPA technology might be reduced to a). the description CPA in terms of structural models (at the general-system level); b).the development of industry-specific technologies for each of the elementary operations.