Alexander Vassilios Mantzaris

Discovering and validating influence in a dynamic online social network

Online human interactions take place within a dynamic hierarchy, where social influence is determined by qualities such as status, eloquence, trustworthiness, authority and persuasiveness. In this work, we consider topic-based twitter interaction networks, and address the task of identifying influential players. Our motivation is the strong desire of many commercial entities to increase their social media presence by engaging positively with pivotal bloggers and tweeters. After discussing some of the issues involved in extracting useful interaction data from a twitter feed, we define the concept of an active node subnetwork sequence. This provides a time-dependent, topic-based, summary of relevant twitter activity. For these types of transient interactions, it has been argued that the flow of information, and hence the influence of a node, is highly dependent on the timing of the links. Some nodes with relatively small bandwidth may turn out to be key players because of their prescience and their ability to instigate follow-on network activity. To simulate a commercial application, we build an active node subnetwork sequence based on key words in the area of travel and holidays. We then compare a range of network centrality measures, including a recently proposed version that accounts for the arrow of time, with respect to their ability to rank important nodes in this dynamic setting. The centrality rankings use only connectivity information (who tweeted whom, when), without requiring further information about the account type or message content, but if we post-process the results by examining account details, we find that the time-respecting, dynamic approach, which looks at the follow-on flow of information, is less likely to be ‘misled’ by accounts that appear to generate large numbers of automatic tweets with the aim of pushing out web links. We then benchmark these algorithmically derived rankings against independent feedback from five social media experts, given access to the full tweet content, who judge twitter accounts as part of their professional duties. We find that the dynamic centrality measures add value to the expert view, and can be hard to distinguish from an expert in terms of who they place in the top ten. These algorithms, which involve sparse matrix linear system solves with sparsity driven by the underlying network structure, can be applied to very large-scale networks. We also test an extension of the dynamic centrality measure that allows us to monitor the change in ranking, as a function of time, of the twitter accounts that were eventually deemed influential.

A model for dynamic communicators

We develop and test an intuitively simple dynamic network model to describe the type of time-varying connectivity structure present in many technological settings. The model assumes that nodes have an inherent hierarchy governing the emergence of new connections. This idea draws on newly established concepts in online human behaviour concerning the existence of discussion catalysts, who initiate long threads, and online leaders, who trigger feedback. We show that the model captures an important property found in e-mail and voice call data – ‘dynamic communicators’ with sufficient foresight or impact to generate effective links and having an influence that is grossly underestimated by static measures based on snaphots or aggregated data.

Dynamic communicability predicts infectiousness

Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network. We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures.

Uncovering nodes that spread information between communities in social networks

From many datasets gathered in online social networks, well defined community structures have been observed. A large number of users participate in these networks and the size of the resulting graphs poses computational challenges. There is a particular demand in identifying the nodes responsible for information flow between communities; for example, in temporal Twitter networks edges between communities play a key role in propagating spikes of activity when the connectivity between communities is sparse and few edges exist between different clusters of nodes. The new algorithm proposed here is aimed at revealing these key connections by measuring a node’s vicinity to nodes of another community. We look at the nodes which have edges in more than one community and the locality of nodes around them which influence the information received and broadcasted to them. The method relies on independent random walks of a chosen fixed number of steps, originating from nodes with edges in more than one community. For the large networks that we have in mind, existing measures such as betweenness centrality are difficult to compute, even with recent methods that approximate the large number of operations required. We therefore design an algorithm that scales up to the demand of current big data requirements and has the ability to harness parallel processing capabilities. The new algorithm is illustrated on synthetic data, where results can be judged carefully, and also on a real, large scale Twitter activity data, where new insights can be gained.

Infering and Calibrating Triadic Closure in a Dynamic Network

In the social sciences, the hypothesis of triadic closure contends that new links in a social contact network arise preferentially between those who currently share neighbours. Here, in a proof-of-principle study, we show how to calibrate a recently proposed evolving network model to time-dependent connectivity data. The probabilistic edge birth rate in the model contains a triadic closure term, so we are also able to assess statistically the evidence for this effect. The approach is shown to work on data generated synthetically from the model. We then apply this methodology to some real, large-scale data that records the build up of connections in a business-related social networking site, and find evidence for triadic closure.

Demonstration of dynamic targeting in an online social medium

A novel way of calculating online influence has been proposed in [2,1]. Bloom Agency have created new online software capable of collecting social data and calculating these new influence metrics in real time. A demonstration of this software will be given at the conference. Delegates will be encouraged to Tweet using the #socinfo2012 hashtag and the influence of the top ten Tweeters will be shown, along with a visualisation of the evolving conversation.