Alexandra Viktorovna Bozhechkova

Analysis of the Bank of Russia information policy

The article investigates the Bank of Russia information policy using a new approach to measuring information effects on Russian data, including the analysis of the tonality of news reports, as well as internet users’ queries on Google. The efficiency of regulator’s information signals is studied using EGARCH-, VAR-models, as well as nonparametric tests. The authors conclude that the regulator communicates effectively in terms of the predictability of interest rate policy, the degree to which information signals affect the money and foreign exchange markets.The article investigates the Bank of Russia information policy using a new approach to measuring information effects on Russian data, including the analysis of the tonality of news reports, as well as internet users’ queries on Google. The efficiency of regulator’s information signals is studied using EGARCH-, VAR-models, as well as nonparametric tests. The authors conclude that the regulator communicates effectively in terms of the predictability of interest rate policy, the degree to which information signals affect the money and foreign exchange markets.

The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Loans to the Economic Growth of the Russian Federation in the Current Environment

Russian Abstract: Данна�? работа по�?в�?щена изучению механизмов и �?тепени вли�?ни�? �?тавок процента на �?кономиче�?кий ро�?т. В первой ча�?ти работы пред�?тавлены о�?новные теоретиче�?кие подходы, объ�?�?н�?ющие каналы вли�?ни�? номинальной и реальной �?тавок процента на динамику выпу�?ка и его �?о�?тавл�?ющих, включа�? канал инве�?тиций и канал потреблени�?. Во втором разделе работы пред�?тавлен обзор �?мпириче�?ких и�?�?ледований вли�?ни�? �?тавки процента на �?кономиче�?кий ро�?т, вы�?влены о�?новные �?конометриче�?кие подходы к изучению данного вопро�?а. В третьем разделе �?одержат�?�? результаты анализа �?трановых кей�?ов по Бразилии, Индии, Турции, Чили, объ�?�?н�?ющие ключевые причины возможно�?ти �?о�?уще�?твовани�? вы�?оких процентных �?тавок и вы�?оких темпов �?кономиче�?кого ро�?та, а также ра�?�?мотрена �?итуаци�? функционировани�? �?кономик в у�?лови�?х низких и отрицательных процентных �?тавок. Четверта�? ча�?ть работы по�?в�?щена оценке работо�?по�?обно�?ти процентного канала тран�?ми�?�?ионного механизма денежно-кредитной политики Банка Ро�?�?ии, получен результат о ча�?тичной �?ффективно�?ти процентной политики на по�?ткризи�?ном периоде. English Abstract: This working paper is devoted to the study of the mechanisms and impact of interest rates on economic growth. The main theoretical approaches tо the explanation of the nominal and real interest rates influence on output and its components dynamics, including investment and consumption channels, are described in the first part of the paper. The second part provides an overview of empirical studies devoted to the analysis of interest rate impact on economic growth. The major econometric methods that are used in this field of studies are also discussed in the second part of this paper. The third part contains the analysis of country case studies (Brazil, Turkey, Chile, India) that explain key reasons of coexistence of high interest rates and high economic growth rates and the analysis of economies functioning in the situation of low or even negative interest rates. The fourth part of the paper is devoted to the estimation of the interest rate channel of the Bank of Russia monetary policy transmission mechanism and the result of the partial effectiveness of interest rate policy in the post-crisis period is obtained.

RUSSIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN JANUARY - SEPTEMBER

Russia’s current account surplus was affected considerably by falling exports, whereas imports declined at a slower rate, as compared with the same period previous year. In January–September 2016, net capital outflow in the private sector is reported to be five times less than what it was during the same period previous year, as the rate of repayment of bank debts and liabilities slowed down, as a result of which the rouble appreciated in real terms in January– September 2016 to the level seen early in 2006.

Inflation: Limits of Slowdawn

In Q1 2016, inflation slowed down both month-on-month and year-on-year, driven by further decline in internal demand amid a strengthening rouble, as well as due to the high base effect a year earlier. However, expectations for high inflation are still strong, which will stem decline in price growth rates in the mid-run.

The Balance of Payments, Russia's External Debt and the Exchange Rate of the Ruble: A Fragile Equilibrium

Russia’s balance of payments data for Q3 2015 show a considerable decline in her current account balance. In monetary terms, the decline in imports during Q3 was faster than that in exports (relative to Q3 2014). By comparison with Q2 2015, it even demonstrated a slight increase, notwithstanding the weakening of the ruble in July and August. In Q3, for the first time in five years, Russia saw a noteworthy capital inflow into banks and enterprises resulting from a considerable reduction in the volume of overseas assets (which were sold on a major scale in order to raise funds for looming external debt repayments) and the sale of foreign exchange by the population. On the whole, the trends observed during the period January-September 2015 make it possible to conclude that, unless any new external shocks take place, Russia’s current account balance by the end of 2015 will be large enough to guarantee the stability of the ruble’s exchange rate against major world currencies in spite of the huge external debt repayments to be made at the end of 2015.

Моделирование Динамики Экономического Потенциала (Modeling of Dynamics of Economical Potential)

Russian Abstract: В препринте проведено исследование долгосрочной динамики инновационного потенциала. Предложена методика выявления региональных особенностей формирования условий, способствующих инновационной деятельности. Разработана теоретическая модель общего равновесия с учетом диффузии технологий, позволяющая проводить анализ влияния технологического трансферта на экономический рост развивающихся стран. Разработана модель экономического роста с учетом фактора сигнализирования на рынке труда. Получены выводы о характере влияния неравенства в распределении доходов на экономический рост. Определены каналы влияния государственных инвестиций на темпы роста. Выявлен положительный характер влияния государственных инвестиций на частные. English Abstract: The research of long-term dynamics of innovative potential is conducted in the preprint. The technique of the detection of regional features of the formation of conditions promoting innovative activity is offered. The theoretical general equilibrium model taking into account the diffusion of the technologies is conducted. It allows to carry out the analysis of influence of a technological transfer on the economic growth of developing countries. The model of economic growth taking into account a signaling factor in a labor market is also developed. Conclusions about nature of influence of an inequality in distribution of the income on economic growth are received. Channels of influence of public investments on growth rates are defined. Positive nature of influence of the public investments on the private investments is revealed.