Alexander Knobel

Estimation of Import Demand Function in Russia

Research is devoted to the analysis of the import demand function in Russia. On the basis of the proposed methodology, the econometric model for the full range of imported goods in the last decade (2000–2010) is estimated. Product groups are ranked by the impact of customs duties and the real exchange rate fluctuations on import. The estimation of dynamics of import demand sensitivity to changes in the real effective exchange rate and to fluctuations in import prices is reported and discussed.

Determinants of Entering the Export Markets and Behavior of Russian Firms in International Trade

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical approaches to the modeling of firm’s behavior in international trade. Using these approaches to analyze the detailed statistics of Russian firms, in the presented study the characteristic of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade is given. We also study the cross-sectional structure of Russian exports to the position of individual enterprises. In general, results of the work should be considered as a better understanding of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade that interesting from both is both academic and practical point of views.

Russiaas Balance of Payments in Q3 2017

Russia’s current account balance continued to contract in Q3 2017 on the back of stabilizing exports amid rising imports. A financial account surplus was led by foreign capital inflow (FDI) into other sectors, as well as by nonresident purchases of Federal Loan Obligations (OFZs). A double BOP surplus led to a moderate appreciation of the Russian rouble.

Evaluation of the Effects of Integration of Eurasian Economic Union

Russian Abstract: Работа посвящена оценке экономических последствий нтеграционной политики по снятию нетарифных барьеров, декларируемой в договоре о ЕАЭС, с помощью методологии численного количественного моделирования с помощью модели общего равновесия (CGE). В работе построены модель общего равновесия и актуальная комплексная база данных для ее оценки. Приведена количественная оценка влияния различных сценариев интеграции ЕАЭС на экономики России, Беларуси, Казахстана и Армении. nEnglish Abstract: The work is devoted to assessment of the economic consequences of the integration policy on removing non-tariff barriers declared in the agreement on the EAEU using the methodology of numerical quantification using the computable general equilibrium (CGE). The general equilibrium model and the complex database for its estimation are constructed. A quantitative assessment of the impact of various scenarios of the EAEU integration on the economies of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia is given.

Risks and Benefits for EAEU from Various Integration Scenarios in Asia-Pacific Region

Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GLOBE v1 we investigate various scenarios of the integration in the Pacific Rim within the framework of the TransxadPacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). For the considered scenarios we obtained forecasts of changes in GDP, aggregate exports and sectoral output, which are stable for changes in input parameters of the model. CGExadmodelling of considered Free trade areas (FTA) was performed via mutual zeroingxadout import tariffs for FTAxadmember countries. As tariff values applied in the model for countries of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) we used our calculations of trade value weighted averages for Common Customs Tariff rates of EAEU. It was shown that nonxadparticipation of the EAEU in the Pacific Rim’s integration has a very small positive impact on the economies of the EAEU countries. Meanwhile, participation is generally beneficial for all EAEU countries and it gives more or less noticeable gains in key macroeconomic indicators, though it creates risks for some sectors. Joining TPP will be the most beneficial for EAEU only under the condition of China’s participation in TPP. Due to the uncertainty of China’s joining TPP a good alternative for EAEU is its entry into RCEP. In the case of EAEU’s accession to the RCEP Russia’s real GDP is expected to grow in the longxadrun by 0,74% (about 10 billion US dollars). For some sectors the answer to the question whether in a particular sector will be observed growth or decline in output levels is determined by the scenario of integration — these sectors are at risk: chemical, rubber and plastic products; motor vehicles and parts; wood and paper products; textiles; wearing apparel; food production sector.

Оценка функции спроса на импорт в России (Estimation of Import Demand Function in Russia)

Исследование посвящено анализу формирования функции спроса на импорт в России. На основе предложенной методологии оценена эконометрическая модель для полного спектра импортируемых товаров за последнее десятилетие (2000–2010). Товарные группы ранжированы по степени влияния колебаний таможенного тарифа и реального обменного курса национальной валюты на импорт в физическом выражении. Прове-дена оценка динамики чувствительности спроса на импорт к изменениям реального эффективного курса рубля и к колебаниям цен импортируемой продукции. Research is devoted to the analysis of the import demand function in Russia. On the basis of the proposed methodology, the econometric model for the full range of imported goods in the last decade (2000–2010) is estimated. Product groups are ranked by the impact of customs duties and the real exchange rate fluctuations on import. The estimation of dynamics of import demand sensitivity to changes in the real effective exchange rate and to fluctuations in import prices is reported and discussed.