Alexandre França Tetto

DESEMPENHO DOS ÍNDICES DE NESTEROV E FÓRMULA DE MONTE ALEGRE NO DISTRITO DE LICHINGA, NORTE DE MOÇAMBIQUE

This study was conducted in order to evaluate the performance of Nesterov indexes and of Monte Alegre formula (FMA) in Lichinga environment (northern Mozambique) in order to suggest the best index to be used in this region. To do so, we used daily meteorological data (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity) and registration data of forest fire occurrences in a period of three years (2010 - 2012). Meteorological data were provided by the Agricultural Research Institute of Mozambique in Lichinga (IIAM-Lichinga), whereas the data base of fire occurrence record was provided by the Center for Monitoring and Control of Forest Fires (CCMIF) of the company Chikweti Forest of Niassa. Then, fire danger indexes and the degree of daily danger were calculated for both indexes, where it was observed the predominance of very high degree of danger in almost every year, with a percentage of 52.65% for the FMA and 37.96% for Nesterov index. Along with values of Skill Score (SS) of 0.11 Percent Success (PS) of 44.82%, Nesterov index showed best performance for this region unlike FMA, that presented a weak performance with values of 0, 07 of SS and 35.62%of PS.

Subsídios à prevenção e combate a incêndios florestais com base no comportamento da precipitação pluviométrica na Floresta Nacional de Irati, Paraná.

This research was developed in the Irati National Forest, located predominantly in the county of Fernandes Pinheiro, Parana State, Brazil, using daily rainfall data from 1963 to 2006. The objective of the study was to examine the precipitation behavior, an important variable in fire occurrence, to use the information in further work on forest fire prevention and control. It was analyzed the monthly precipitation, the number of days with rain, and average daily precipitation, in terms of means, minimum and maximum values. Afterwards, the data were grouped and an analysis of the precipitation evolution for that period was carried out. It was determined and analyzed the inter annual variability of dry and rainy seasons considering the 44 years. Results showed: a) the normal fire season was concentrated from April to August, a period of lower monthly average precipitation; b) an increase in the annual precipitation along the period being studied; c) a decrease in the number of rainy days per year; and d) an increase in the daily average precipitation. It was observed an increase of 128.78 mm in the total annual precipitation, a decrease of approximately 3 days of rain, and an increase of 0.90 mm of average rainfall per day over the period. The beginning of the rain season is concentrated in the first 20 days of September (70.5%). It was observed equivalence between the dry and rain seasons in 1968, 1978 and 1997, what resulted in a forest fire danger increase.