Alexandros Kontonikas

The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are well explained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE STATIONARITY OF INFLATION: NEW RESULTS FROM AN ESTAR UNIT ROOT TEST

In this paper, we examine the time series properties of inflation in seven countries that have adopted inflation targeting. Unlike previous studies, we utilize a non-linear mean reverting adjustment mechanism for inflation and we discover that, although deviations of inflation from the target can exhibit a region of non-stationary behaviour, overall they are stationary indicating successful targeting implementation.

Optimal Monetary Policy and Asset Price Misalignments

This paper analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the context of optimal policy rules. The transmission mechanism is represented by a linearized rational expectations model augmented for the effect of asset prices on aggregate demand. Stabilization objectives are represented by a discounted quadratic loss function penalizing inflation and output gap volatility. Asset prices are allowed to deviate from their intrinsic value due to momentum trading. We find that in the presence of wealth effects and inefficient markets, asset price misalignments from their fundamentals should be included in the optimal interest rate reaction function.

Does the day of the week effect exist once transaction costs have been accounted for? Evidence from the UK

This article investigates the day of the week anomaly in the FTSE 100 Share Index over an 11-year time period from 1 January 1986 to 31 December 1997. Its focus is to assess whether the day of the week effect continues to persist once transactions costs are considered. Unlike previous literature it uses the bid–ask spread as a proxy for transactions costs. It finds that once returns become robust to transactions costs the anomaly appears to fade away. It then extends the research by looking at the time-varying volatility of stock returns with use of a GARCH model. The GARCH results further support the fact that transaction costs appear to die away the day of the week anomaly in the UK Stock market.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formed on the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differential manner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots and Nonlinear Adjustment

This article examines the time-series properties of inflation differentials in 12 economic and monetary union (EMU) countries. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that inflation differentials are highly persistent in the majority of countries. However, when one allows for the possibility that inflation differentials can be characterized by a nonlinear mean reverting process, one finds evidence of stationarity in all cases. The empirical results suggest that once nonlinearity is accounted for, inflation differentials do not consistently intensify real divergence in the euro area.

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

Aggregate and regional house price to earnings ratio dynamics in the UK

This paper examines the time-series properties of house price to earnings ratio (HPER) in the UK using aggregate and regional data. Specifically, we utilise a series of unit root tests to examine the null hypothesis of nonstationary HPERs. These include linear tests as well as a nonlinear test and also a test which accounts for abrupt structural change. The results are against the notion of stationary HPERs. This implies that house prices may permanently diverge from earnings.

The Time-Series Properties of UK Inflation: Evidence from Aggregate and Disaggregate Data

This paper contrasts the time-series properties of aggregate and disaggregate UK inflation. While aggregate inflation is found to be non-stationary, unit root rejection frequencies are increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Structural break analysis suggests that structural shifts in monetary policy could alter inflation persistence. Additionally, panel evidence indicates that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for sectoral inflation rates. Finally, we compare the persistence properties of UK inflation, finding statistically significant differences between aggregate and disaggregate series. Our analysis suggests that aggregation matters, which has important implications for econometric analysis and the conduct of monetary policy.

Monetary policy and stock valuation: structural VAR identification and size effects

This paper examines the relationship between the US monetary policy and stock valuation using a structural VAR framework that allows for the simultaneous interaction between the federal funds rate and stock market developments based on the assumption of long-run monetary neutrality. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices. Furthermore, we provide evidence consistent with a delayed response of small stocks to monetary policy shocks relative to large stocks.