Alexey Isavnin

ElEvoHI: A NOVEL CME PREDICTION TOOL FOR HELIOSPHERIC IMAGING COMBINING AN ELLIPTICAL FRONT WITH DRAG-BASED MODEL FITTING

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e. the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, STEREO heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-

Properties and drivers of fast interplanetary shocks near the orbit of the Earth (1995–2013)

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Determining the Intrinsic CME Flux Rope Type Using Remote-sensing Solar Disk Observations

, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 hours to

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

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Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

hours and the arrival speed forecast by

Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In Situ Comparison

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Three-Dimensional Evolution of Flux-Rope CMEs and Its Relation to the Local Orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet

km s

Three-Dimensional Evolution of Erupted Flux Ropes from the Sun (2 – 20 R⊙) to 1 AU

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Grad–Shafranov Reconstruction of Magnetic Clouds: Overview and Improvements

to

On the relationship between interplanetary coronal mass ejections and magnetic clouds

\pm 53