C. Möstl

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front-and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s(-1)). We track the CMEs to 34.9 +/- 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of - 26.4 +/- 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Phi, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 +/- 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 +/- 288 km s(-1) . Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 +/- 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 +/- 50 km s(-1). These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

CHARACTERISTICS OF KINEMATICS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION DURING THE 2010 AUGUST 1 CME–CME INTERACTION EVENT

We study the interaction of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI COR and heliospheric imager (HI) data. We obtain the direction of motion for both CMEs by applying several independent reconstruction methods and find that the CMEs head in similar directions. This provides evidence that a full interaction takes place between the two CMEs that can be observed in the HI1 field of view. The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived by combining remote observations with in situ measurements of the CME at 1 AU. The speed profile of the faster CME (CME2; similar to 1200 km s(-1)) shows a strong deceleration over the distance range at which it reaches the slower, preceding CME (CME1; similar to 700 km s(-1)). By applying a drag-based model we are able to reproduce the kinematical profile of CME2, suggesting that CME1 represents a magnetohydrodynamic obstacle for CME2 and that, after the interaction, the merged entity propagates as a single structure in an ambient flow of speed and density typical for quiet solar wind conditions. Observational facts show that magnetic forces may contribute to the enhanced deceleration of CME2. We speculate that the increase in magnetic tension and pressure, when CME2 bends and compresses the magnetic field lines of CME1, increases the efficiency of drag.

STEREO and Wind observations of a fast ICME flank triggering a prolonged geomagnetic storm on 5-7 April 2010

On 5 April 2010 an interplanetary (IP) shock was detected by the Wind spacecraft ahead of Earth, followed by a fast (average speed 650 km/s) IP coronal mass ejection (ICME). During the subsequent moderate geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -72 nT, maximum Kp=8-), communication with the Galaxy 15 satellite was lost. We link images from STEREO/SECCHI to the near-Earth in situ observations and show that the ICME did not decelerate much between Sun and Earth. The ICME flank was responsible for a long storm growth phase. This type of glancing collision was for the first time directly observed with the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers. The magnetic cloud (MC) inside the ICME cannot be modeled with approaches assuming an invariant direction. These observations confirm the hypotheses that parts of ICMEs classified as (1) long-duration MCs or (2) magnetic-cloud-like (MCL) structures can be a consequence of a spacecraft trajectory through the ICME flank.

On Sun-to-Earth Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We investigate how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagate through, and interact with, the inner heliosphere between the Sun and Earth, a key question in CME research and space weather forecasting. CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics are constrained by combining wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations, interplanetary radio type II bursts, and in situ measurements from multiple vantage points. We select three events for this study, the 2012 January 19, 23, and March 7 CMEs. Different from previous event studies, this work attempts to create a general picture for CME Sun-to-Earth propagation and compare different techniques for determining CME interplanetary kinematics. Key results are obtained concerning CME Sun-to-Earth propagation: (1) the Sun-to-Earth propagation of fast CMEs can be approximately formulated into three phases: an impulsive acceleration, then a rapid deceleration, and finally a nearly constant speed propagation (or gradual deceleration); (2) the CMEs studied here are still accelerating even after the flare maximum, so energy must be continuously fed into the CME even after the time of the maximum heating and radiation has elapsed in the corona; (3) the rapid deceleration, presumably due to interactions with the ambient medium, mainly occurs over a relatively short timescale following the acceleration phase; and (4) CME-CME interactions seem a common phenomenon close to solar maximum. Our comparison between different techniques (and data sets) has important implications for CME observations and their interpretations: (1) for the current cases, triangulation assuming a compact CME geometry is more reliable than triangulation assuming a spherical front attached to the Sun for distances below 50-70 solar radii from the Sun, but beyond about 100 solar radii we would trust the latter more; (2) a proper treatment of CME geometry must be performed in determining CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics, especially when the CME propagation direction is far away from the observer; and (3) our approach to comparing wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations with interplanetary radio type II bursts provides a novel tool in investigating CME propagation characteristics. Future CME observations and space weather forecasting are discussed based on these results.

MULTI-POINT SHOCK AND FLUX ROPE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AROUND 2010 AUGUST 1 IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory (SDO/SOHO/STEREO), monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from the solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degrees in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE, and ARTEMIS near Earth and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (approximate to-100 nT), and was caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

A SELF-SIMILAR EXPANSION MODEL FOR USE IN SOLAR WIND TRANSIENT PROPAGATION STUDIES

Since the advent of wide-angle imaging of the inner heliosphere, a plethora of techniques have been developed to investigate the three-dimensional structure and kinematics of solar wind transients, such as coronal mass ejections, from their signatures in single- and multi-spacecraft imaging observations. These techniques, which range from the highly complex and computationally intensive to methods based on simple curve fitting, all have their inherent advantages and limitations. In the analysis of single-spacecraft imaging observations, much use has been made of the fixed fitting (FPF) and harmonic mean fitting (HMF) techniques, in which the solar wind transient is considered to be a radially propagating point source (fixed , FP, model) and a radially expanding circle anchored at Sun centre (harmonic mean, HM, model), respectively. Initially, we compare the radial speeds and propagation directions derived from application of the FPF and HMF techniques to a large set of STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations. As the geometries on which these two techniques are founded constitute extreme descriptions of solar wind transients in terms of their extent along the line of sight, we describe a single-spacecraft fitting technique based on a more generalized model for which the FP and HM geometries form the limiting cases. In addition to providing estimates of a transients speed and propagation direction, the self-similar expansion fitting (SSEF) technique provides, in theory, the capability to estimate the transients angular extent in the plane orthogonal to the field of view. Using the HI observations, and also by performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we assess the potential of the SSEF technique.

The role of aerodynamic drag in propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

Context. The propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and the forecast of their arrival on Earth is one of the central issues of space weather studies. Aims. We investigate to which degree various ICME parameters (mass, size, take-off speed) and the ambient solar-wind parameters (density and velocity) affect the ICME Sun-Earth transit time. Methods. We study solutions of a drag-based equation of motion by systematically varying the input parameters. The analysis is focused on ICME transit times and 1 AU velocities. Results. The model results reveal that wide ICMEs of low masses adjust to the solar-wind speed already close to the sun, so the transit time is determined primarily by the solar-wind speed. The shortest transit times and accordingly the highest 1 AU velocities are related to narrow and massive ICMEs (i.e. high-density eruptions) propagating in high-speed solar wind streams. We apply the model to the Sun-Earth event associated with the CME of 25 July 2004 and compare the results with the outcome of the numerical MHD modeling.

Influence of the Ambient Solar Wind Flow on the Propagation Behavior of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections

We study three coronal mass ejection (CME)/interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events (2008 June 1-6, 2009 February 13-18, and 2010 April 3-5) tracked from Sun to 1 AU in remote-sensing observations of Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imagers and in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements. We focus on the ICME propagation in interplanetary (IP) space that is governed by two forces: the propelling Lorentz force and the drag force. We address the question: which heliospheric distance range does the drag become dominant and the CME adjust to the solar wind flow. To this end, we analyze speed differences between ICMEs and the ambient solar wind flow as a function of distance. The evolution of the ambient solar wind flow is derived from ENLIL three-dimensional MHD model runs using different solar wind models, namely, Wang-Sheeley-Arge and MHD-Around-A-Sphere. Comparing the measured CME kinematics with the solar wind models, we find that the CME speed becomes adjusted to the solar wind speed at very different heliospheric distances in the three events under study: from below 30 R ☉, to beyond 1 AU, depending on the CME and ambient solar wind characteristics. ENLIL can be used to derive important information about the overall structure of the background solar wind, providing more reliable results during times of low solar activity than during times of high solar activity. The results from this study enable us to obtain greater insight into the forces acting on CMEs over the IP space distance range, which is an important prerequisite for predicting their 1 AU transit times.

LINKING REMOTE IMAGERY OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION TO ITS IN SITU SIGNATURES AT 1 AU

In a case study (2008 June 6-7) we report on how the internal structure of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 1 AU can be anticipated from remote observations of white-light images of the heliosphere. Favorable circumstances are the absence of fast equatorial solar wind streams and a low CME velocity which allow us to relate the imaging and in situ data in a straightforward way. The STEREO-B spacecraft encountered typical signatures of a magnetic flux rope inside an interplanetary CME (ICME) whose axis was inclined at 45° to the solar equatorial plane. Various CME direction-finding techniques yield consistent results to within 15°. Further, remote images from STEREO-A show that (1) the CME is unambiguously connected to the ICME and can be tracked all the way to 1 AU, (2) the particular arc-like morphology of the CME points to an inclined axis, and (3) the three-part structure of the CME may be plausibly related to the in situ data. This is a first step in predicting both the direction of travel and the internal structure of CMEs from complete remote observations between the Sun and 1 AU, which is one of the main requirements for forecasting the geo-effectiveness of CMEs.