Alfésio Luís Ferreira Braga

The Time Course of Weather-Related Deaths

We carried out time-series analysis in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the lagged influence of weather on total daily deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity on the basis of a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the immediately preceding day and was twice as large as the cold effect. The hot temperature effect appears to be primarily harvesting. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on deaths. The magnitude of the effect of hot temperature varied with central air conditioning use and the variance of summertime temperatures. We saw no clear pattern for humidity effect. These dissimilarities indicate that analysis of the impact of any climatic change should take into account regional weather differences and harvesting.

The Impact of Sugar Cane–Burning Emissions on the Respiratory System of Children and the Elderly

We analyzed the influence of emissions from burning sugar cane on the respiratory system during almost 1 year in the city of Piracicaba in southeast Brazil. From April 1997 through March 1998, samples of inhalable particles were collected, separated into fine and coarse particulate mode, and analyzed for black carbon and tracer elements. At the same time, we examined daily records of children (< 13 years of age) and elderly people (> 64 years of age) admitted to the hospital because of respiratory diseases. Generalized linear models were adopted with natural cubic splines to control for season and linear terms to control for weather. Analyses were carried out for the entire period, as well as for burning and nonburning periods. Additional models were built using three factors obtained from factor analysis instead of particles or tracer elements. Increases of 10.2 μg/m3 in particles ≥ 2.5 μm/m3 aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and 42.9 μg/m3 in PM10 were associated with increases of 21.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.3–38.5] and 31.03% (95% CI, 1.25–60.21) in child and elderly respiratory hospital admissions, respectively. When we compared periods, the effects during the burning period were much higher than the effects during nonburning period. Elements generated from sugar cane burning (factor 1) were those most associated with both child and elderly respiratory admissions. Our results show the adverse impact of sugar cane burning emissions on the health of the population, reinforcing the need for public efforts to reduce and eventually eliminate this source of air pollution.

Health effects of air pollution exposure on children and adolescents in São Paulo, Brazil

Children and adolescents have been considered more susceptible to the effects of air pollution than adults. In order to investigate the responses of children of different ages to air pollution exposure, daily records of hospital admissions for children in five age groups (equal or less than 2 years of age, 3–5, 6–13, 14–19, and all ages together, i.e., from 0–19 years of age) were obtained from January 1993 to November 1997 in São Paulo, Brazil, and were compared to daily records of PM10, O3, SO2, CO and NO2 concentrations in ambient air. For each age group a generalized additive Poisson regression was fitted controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature, humidity, and days of the week, with an additional indicator for holidays. Polynomial distributed lag models were used to estimate the 7‐day cumulative effect of each pollutant.

The lag structure between particulate air pollution and respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 10 US cities.

To assess differences in the lag structure pattern between particulate matter <10 &mgr;m/100 &mgr;m in diameter (PM10) and cause-specific mortality, we performed a time-series analysis in 10 US cities using generalized additive Poisson regressions in each city; nonparametric smooth functions were used to control for long time trend, weather, and day of the week. The PM10 effect was estimated based on its daily mean, 2-day moving average, and the cumulative 7-day effect by means of an unconstrained distributed lag model. A 10-&mgr;g/m3 increase in the 7-day mean of PM10 was associated with increases in deaths due to pneumonia (2.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 3.9), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.7%, 95% CI: 0.1, 3.3), and all cardiovascular diseases (1.0%, 95% CI: 0.6, 1.4). A 10-&mgr;g/m3 increase in the 2-day mean of PM10 was associated with a 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.1) increase in deaths from myocardial infarction. When the distributed lag was assessed, two different patterns could be observed: respiratory deaths were more affected by air pollution levels on the previous days, whereas cardiovascular deaths were more affected by same-day pollution. These results contribute to the overall efforts so far in understanding how exposure to air pollution promotes adverse health effects.

Air pollution from biomass burning and asthma hospital admissions in a sugar cane plantation area in Brazil

Objective: To evaluate the association between the total suspended particles (TSPs) generated from preharvest sugar cane burning and hospital admission due to asthma (asthma hospital admissions) in the city of Araraquara. Design: An ecological time-series study. Total daily records of asthma hospital admissions (ICD 10th J15) were obtained from one of the main hospitals in Araraquara, São Paulo State, Brazil, from 23 March 2003 to 27 July 2004. The daily concentration of TSP (μg/m3) was obtained using Handi-vol equipment (Energética, Brazil) placed in downtown Araraquara. The local airport provided the daily mean figures of temperature and humidity. The daily number of asthma hospital admissions was considered as the dependent variable in Poisson’s regression models and the daily concentration of TSP was considered the independent variable. The generalised linear model with natural cubic spline was adopted to control for long-time trend. Linear terms were used for weather variables. Results: TSP had an acute effect on asthma admissions, starting 1 day after TSP concentrations increased and remaining almost unchanged for the next four days. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 5-day moving average (lag1–5) of TSP concentrations was associated with an increase of 11.6% (95% CI 5.4 to 17.7) in asthma hospital admissions. Conclusion: Increases in TSP concentrations were definitely associated with asthma hospital admissions in Araraquara and, despite using sugar cane alcohol to reduce air pollution from automotive sources in large Brazilian urban centres, the cities where sugar cane is harvested pay a high toll in terms of public health.

Influence of socioeconomic conditions on air pollution adverse health effects in elderly people: an analysis of six regions in São Paulo, Brazil

Study objective: To evaluate if the effects of particulate matter (PM10) on respiratory mortality of elderly people are affected by socioeconomic status. Design: Time series studies. The daily number of elderly respiratory deaths were modelled in generalised linear Poisson regression models controlling for long term trend, weather, and day of the week, from January 1997 to December 1999, in six different regions of São Paulo City, Brazil. The regions were defined according to the proximity of air pollution monitoring stations. Three socioeconomic indicators were used: college education, monthly income, and housing. Main results: For a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10, the percentage increase in respiratory mortality varied from 1.4% (95% CI 5.9 to 8.7) to 14.2% (95% CI 0.4 to 28.0). The overall percentage increase in the six regions was 5.4% (95% CI 2.3 to 8.6). The effect of PM10 was negatively correlated with both percentage of people with college education and high family income, and it was positively associated with the percentage of people living in slums. Conclusions: These results suggest that socioeconomic deprivation represents an effect modifier of the association between air pollution and respiratory deaths.

Association between air pollution and ischemic cardiovascular emergency room visits

This study observed the relationship between air pollutants and ischemic cardiac diseases such as angina and acute myocardial infarction in a representative cardiovascular center emergency room in São Paulo, Brazil. Daily emergency room admissions to the Institute of the Heart of the University of São Paulo, as well as data concerning daily air pollutant levels and meteorological variables, were collected from January 1994 to August 1995. Generalized additive Poisson regressions were fitted to the logarithm of the expected values of total emergency room visits due to angina or acute myocardial infarction, controlling for smooth functions of season and weather and indicators for days of the week. All investigated pollutants were positively associated with ischemic cardiovascular disease emergency room visits, and the time lags were relatively short, but only CO presented an effect that was statistically significant. An interquartile range increase in CO was associated with an increase of 6.4% (95% CI: 0.7-12.1) in daily angina or acute myocardial infarction emergency room visits. This result did not change when estimates were done using linear models and natural cubic splines. This study showed that air pollution has a role in cardiovascular morbidity in São Paulo, reinforcing the necessity for air pollutant emission-controlling polices in urban areas.

Effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions

In order to assess the effect of air pollution on pediatric respiratory morbidity, we carried out a time series study using daily levels of PM10, SO2, NO2, ozone, and CO and daily numbers of pediatric respiratory emergency room visits and hospital admissions at the Childrens Institute of the University of Sao Paulo Medical School, from August 1996 to August 1997. In this period there were 43,635 hospital emergency room visits, 4534 of which were due to lower respiratory tract disease. The total number of hospital admissions was 6785, 1021 of which were due to lower respiratory tract infectious and/or obstructive diseases. The three health end-points under investigation were the daily number of emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases, hospital admissions due to pneumonia, and hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis. Generalized additive Poisson regression models were fitted, controlling for smooth functions of time, temperature and humidity, and an indicator of weekdays. NO2 was positively associated with all outcomes. Interquartile range increases (65.04 microg/m3) in NO2 moving averages were associated with an 18.4% increase (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 12.5-24.3) in emergency room visits due to lower respiratory tract diseases (4-day moving average), a 17.6% increase (95% CI = 3.3-32.7) in hospital admissions due to pneumonia or bronchopneumonia (3-day moving average), and a 31.4% increase (95% CI = 7.2-55.7) in hospital admissions due to asthma or bronchiolitis (2-day moving average). The study showed that air pollution considerably affects childrens respiratory morbidity, deserving attention from the health authorities.

Urban air pollution and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related emergency department visits

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can have recurrent disease exacerbations triggered by several factors, including air pollution. Visits to the emergency respiratory department can be a direct result of short-term exposure to air pollution. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the daily number of COPD emergency department visits and the daily environmental air concentrations of PM10, SO2, NO2, CO and O3 in the City of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The sample data were collected between 2001 and 2003 and are categorised by gender and age. Generalised linear Poisson regression models were adopted to control for both short- and long-term seasonal changes as well as for temperature and relative humidity. The non-linear dependencies were controlled using a natural cubic spline function. Third-degree polynomial distributed lag models were adopted to estimate both lag structures and the cumulative effects of air pollutants. Results: PM10 and SO2 readings showed both acute and lagged effects on COPD emergency department visits. Interquartile range increases in their concentration (28.3 μg/m3 and 7.8 μg/m3, respectively) were associated with a cumulative 6-day increase of 19% and 16% in COPD admissions, respectively. An effect on women was observed at lag 0, and among the elderly the lag period was noted to be longer. Increases in CO concentration showed impacts in the female and elderly groups. NO2 and O3 presented mild effects on the elderly and in women, respectively. Conclusion: These results indicate that air pollution affects health in a gender- and age-specific manner and should be considered a relevant risk factor that exacerbates COPD in urban environments.

Air pollution and emergency room visits due to chronic lower respiratory diseases in the elderly: an ecological time-series study in São Paulo, Brazil.

Recalll the index of respiratory morbidity used in this study, prevailing air pollutant levels, and the sources of air pollution in São Paulo.Review the study findings, emphasizing which pollutants correlate most closely with respiratory illness.Discuss the implications of these findings for individual health and public health. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of daily air pollution levels (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter with an aerodynamic profile ≤10 &mgr;m ) on morbidity by using the daily number of emergency room visits due to chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) in people older than 64 years of age in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1996 to 1998. Generalized additive Poisson regression models adjusted for long-time trend and weather (nonparametric functions), weekdays (dummy variable), and daily number of nonrespiratory admissions were adopted. Ozone and sulfur dioxide were the pollutants statistically associated with CLRD visits. Interquartile range increases in the 6-day moving average of sulfur dioxide (11.82 &mgr;g/m3) and in the 4-day moving average of ozone(35.87 &mgr;g/m3) increased CLRD emergency room visits in 18% and 14%, respectively. These results reinforce the idea that air pollution may promote adverse health effects in the elderly.