Alfredo L. Aretxabaleta

Model simulations of the Bay of Fundy Gyre: 1. Climatological results

The characteristics of a persistent gyre in the mouth of the Bay of Fundy are studied using model simulations. A set of climatological runs are conducted to evaluate the relative importance of the different forcing mechanisms affecting the gyre. The main mechanisms are tidal rectification, and density-driven circulation. Stronger circulation of the gyre occurs during the later part of the stratified season (July-August and September-October). The density-driven flow around the gyre is set-up by weak tidal mixing in the deep basin in the central Bay of Fundy and strong tidal mixing on the shallow flanks around Grand Manan Island and western Nova Scotia. Retention of particles in the Gyre is controlled by the residual tidal circulation, increased frontal retention during stratified periods, wind stress, and interactions with the adjacent circulation of the Gulf of Maine. Residence times longer than 30 days are predicted for particles released in the proximity of the gyre.

Model simulations of the Bay of Fundy Gyre: 2. Hindcasts for 2005–2007 reveal interannual variability in retentiveness

A persistent gyre at the mouth of the Bay of Fundy results from a combination of tidal rectification and buoyancy forcing (Aretxabaleta et al., J. Geophys. Res., vol. 113, 2008). Here we assess interannual variability in the strength of the gyre using data assimilative model simulations. Realistic hindcast representations of the Gyre are considered over the course of cruise surveys in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Assimilation of shipboard and moored ADCP velocities are used to improve the skill of the simulations, as quantified by comparison with non-assimilated drifter trajectories. Our hindcast suggest a weakening of the Gyre system during May 2005. Retention of simulated passive particles in the Gyre during that period was highly reduced. A recovery of the dense water pool in the deep part of the basin by June 2006 resulted in a return to particle retention characteristics similar to climatology. Retention estimates reached a maximum during May 2007 (sub-surface) and June-July 2007 (near-surface). Interannual variability in the strength of the gyre was primarily modulated by the stratification of the dense water pool inside the Grand Manan Basin. These changes in stratification may be attributed to mixing conditions the preceding fall/winter and/or advectively-driven modification of water mass properties.

Water level response in back‐barrier bays unchanged following Hurricane Sandy

On 28–30 October 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused severe flooding along portions of the northeast coast of the United States and cut new inlets across barrier islands in New Jersey and New York. About 30% of the 20 highest daily maximum water levels observed between 2007 and 2013 in Barnegat and Great South Bay occurred in 5 months following Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy provided a rare opportunity to determine whether extreme events alter systems protected by barrier islands, leaving the mainland more vulnerable to flooding. Comparisons between water levels before and after Hurricane Sandy at bay stations and an offshore station show no significant differences in the transfer of sea level fluctuations from offshore to either bay following Sandy. The post-Hurricane Sandy bay high water levels reflected offshore sea levels caused by winter storms, not by barrier island breaching or geomorphic changes within the bays.

Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Formation of fine sediment deposit from a flash-flood river in the Mediterranean Sea

We identify the mechanisms controlling fine deposits on the inner-shelf in front of the Besos River, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. This river is characterized by a flash flood regime discharging large amounts of water (more than 20 times the mean water discharge) and sediment in very short periods lasting from hours to few days. Numerical model output was compared with bottom sediment observations and used to characterize the multiple spatial and temporal scales involved in offshore sediment deposit formation. A high-resolution (50 m grid size) coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport model was applied to the initial stages of the sediment dispersal after a storm-related flood event. After the flood, sediment accumulation was predominantly confined to an area near the coastline as a result of preferential deposition during the final stage of the storm. Subsequent reworking occurred due to wave-induced bottom shear stress that resuspended fine materials, with seaward flow exporting them toward the midshelf. Wave characteristics, sediment availability, and shelf circulation determined the transport after the reworking and the final sediment deposition location. One year simulations of the regional area revealed a prevalent southwestward average flow with increased intensity downstream. The circulation pattern was consistent with the observed fine deposit depocenter being shifted southward from the river mouth. At the southern edge, bathymetry controlled the fine deposition by inducing near-bottom flow convergence enhancing bottom shear stress. According to the short-term and long-term analyses, a seasonal pattern in the fine deposit formation is expected.

Preliminary validation of SMOS products (levels 3 and 4)

With the advent of ESAs SMOS Mission, we have the opportunity for the first time of measuring Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) from the space and at a synoptic scale. However, the MIRAS instrument onboard SMOS is a new concept of instrument, and the adjustment and calibration of this interferometric radiometer poses great challenges. In this paper, we show the present status of Level 3 and 4 salinity maps, which are supposed to give accurate climatological descriptions of SSS, describing the attained accuracy and analyzing the geophysical consistence of those maps. A discussion on future improvements is also issued.

Particles in the coastal ocean : theory and applications

Part I. Background: 1. The coastal ocean 2. Drifters and their numerical simulation 3. Probability and statistics - a primer 4. Dispersion by random walk 5. BCs, boundary layers, sources 6. Turbulence closure Part II. Elements: 7. Meshes: interpolation, navigation, and fields 8. Particles and fields Part III. Applications: 9. Noncohesive sediment - dense particles 10. Oil - chemically active particles 11. Individual-based models - biotic particles Part IV. Appendixes.

Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase ( 0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings. Plain Language Summary We analyze water level observations in the bays of southern Long Island (Jamaica Bay, Great South Bay and connected bays) to determine how the bays respond to the conditions in the open ocean. We focus especially on changes in time in the tides and in the response to storms. The tides and the water level relationship with offshore have been changing slightly in recent years (2008–2015). The changes occur at times during or immediately after inlet dredging and also as a result of the changing dimensions of a breach through Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy. We propose a simple model that takes into account the inlet and bay dimensions and friction in the inlet channels to predicts water level response to tides and storms in all bays including those for which long-term observational data were not available.

Estimating time-dependent connectivity in marine systems

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 43 (2016): 1193–1201, doi:10.1002/2015GL066888.

Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2)

Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy waveinduced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol’ indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol’ indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol’ indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.