Alfredo R. Paloyo

The Causal Link between Financial Incentives and Weight Loss: An Evidence‐Based Survey of the Literature

Obesity and overweight are linked to diseases that cost society a significant amount of resources. While behavior modification can reduce the problem, instigating such lifestyle changes is an uneasy task. One potential way to reduce the problem is through the use of financial incentives. In this survey, we review the available evidence, properly emphasizing studies that credibly yield meaningful estimates of the effect of financial incentives on weight loss. We find that the scientific literature on the subject has not yet satisfactorily settled whether such a mechanism is effective at eliciting the desired behavioral and health outcomes. We therefore advocate a rigorous large-scale randomized experiment to provide reliable estimates of the effect.

The Regional Economic Effects of Military Base Realignments and Closures in Germany

We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a number of socioeconomic indicators within the peripheries of military bases. The base realignments and closures in Germany are used as an exogenous source of variation that allows us to identify the effect of a demand shock on household income, output, unemployment, and tax revenue within a specified buffer zone around each base. The analysis covers 298 communities for the period 2003–2007. Consistent with evidence found elsewhere, we find that these base adjustments have only a marginal impact on the local community in which the bases are located.

Compulsory Military Service in Germany Revisited

This paper estimates the causal impact of compulsory military service on men in Germany using social security and pension administrative data for the cohort of individuals born in the period 1932–1942. Due to the combination of laws restricting conscription only to men born on or after July 1, 1937, difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of conscription on average daily wages can be computed using cohorts of women as a comparison group. The results indicate that conscription had no significant impact on a draftee’s labor-market performance, validating an earlier result using an alternative identification strategy.

Local Determinants of Crime: Do Military Bases Matter?

Using a unique panel dataset, we estimate the impact of the military base realignments and closures (BRACs) in Germany on the intensity of criminal activity surrounding the base. We use a fi xed-eff ect model to account for time-invariant unobservables in our panel of 298 military bases for the period 2003-2007. We also take advantage of geographic information system software to mitigate estimation issues arising from the spatial nature of the dataset. Estimation results are presented for total crime and four other subcategories: breaking and entering, automobile-related crime, violent crime, and drug-related crime. The estimates indicate that there is no eff ect of BRACs on criminal activity surrounding the base. We also confi rm existing fi ndings in the literature on the determinants of crime.

High-Impact Minimum Wages and Heterogeneous Regions

We estimate the effects on wage and employment growth rates of the introduction and subsequent increases of a substantial minimum wage in the main construction industry of Germany. Using a regional dataset constructed from individual employment histories, we exploit the spatial dimension and border discontinuities of the regional data to account for spillovers between districts and unobserved heterogeneity at the local level. The results indicate that the minimum wage increased the wage growth rate for East Germany but did not have a significant impact on the West German equivalent. The estimated effect on the employment growth rate reveals a contraction in the East of about 2.6 to 3.1 percentage points for a one-standard-deviation increase in the minimum-wage bite, amounting to roughly half of the overall decline in the growth rate, but no significant change is observed for the West.

National pro-poor spending programmes and their effect on income inequality and poverty: Evidence from Vietnam

ABSTRACT This article examines the causal effects of the national (pro-poor) targeted programmes (NTPs) on both poverty incidence and inequality in Vietnam over the period 2002–2010. While the links between NTPs and poverty alleviation and income inequality have previously been analysed independently, this study is the first to offer a comprehensive analysis of NTPs expenditure on poverty and inequality simultaneously. Applying the system generalized method of moments estimator to a panel of Vietnamese regional data, we are unable to establish that NTPs have significantly mitigated poverty incidence. However, we estimate that NTPs have significantly increased inequality. We offer possible explanations why the NTPs have resulted in these unintended outcomes and discuss potential policies which can reduce both poverty and inequality.

Is There a Purchase Limit on Regional Growth? A Quasi-experimental Evaluation of Investment Grants Using Matching Techniques

In this article, we apply recent advances in quasi-experimental estimation methods to analyze the effectiveness of Germany’s large-scale regional policy instrument, the joint Federal Government/State Programme “Gemeinschaftsaufgabe Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur” (GRW), which is a means to foster labor-productivity growth in lagging regions. In particular, adopting binary and generalized propensity-score matching methods, our results indicate that the GRW can be generally considered effective. However, we find evidence for a nonlinear relationship between GRW funding and regional growth associated with a maximum subsidy level beyond which financial support does not generate further labor-productivity growth. In other words, there is a “purchase limit” on regional growth. Although the matching approach is very appealing due to its methodological rigor and didactical clarity, throughout the empirical application, we faced difficulties in balancing the set of covariates among treated and comparison regions, given that two sets of the regions differ strongly with respect to their underlying structural characteristics. Such imperfect balancing may limit the practical applicability of matching techniques in regional data settings. Overall, however, the matching approach can still be considered of great value for regional policy analysis and should be the subject of future research efforts in the field of empirical regional science.

Co-Pay and Feel Okay: Evidence of Illusory Health Gains from a Health Insurance Reform

The reliability of general self-rated health status is examined using the reform of the public health insurance system of Germany in 2004 as a source of exogenous variation. Among others, the reform introduced a co-payment for ambulatory doctor visits and increased the co-payments for prescription drugs. This natural experiment allows identification of the causal impact of the program on self-assessed health and hence reveals the sensitivity of this subjective measure to a perturbation in the insurance system. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, the results indicate that after the policy intervention, the respondents in the treated group perceived their own health status as better than their hypothetical untreated state even when there is no discernible impact on actual health.

Biting Back at Malaria: Assessing Health‐Service Providers' Compliance with Treatment Guidelines

Non-compliance with established medical treatment guidelines can have dire consequences for public health and economic well-being. Based on the Demographic and Health Surveys, we examine malaria-treatment practices of various health-care providers in sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 90% of malaria-induced deaths occur. We estimate each providers likelihood (i) to comply with guidelines to administer (effective) antimalarial drugs and (ii) to relieve children of fever—a symptom of malaria—after having had a fever episode within the previous two weeks. Our results indicate that, relative to self-medication, seeking treatment at most providers is positively associated with taking an antimalarial drug and negatively associated with using only ineffective chloroquine. Non-traditional healers are also associated with fever relief.

Rental prices in Germany: A comparison between migrants and natives

This paper deals with the question of whether migrants in Germany pay a rent premium for apartments of comparable quality and neighborhood characteristics. We use a twostep selection-correction model augmented by a control function to account for nonrandom neighborhood choice. The estimation sample is a uniquely assembled panel comprising the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), information on household and apartment characteristics, as well as georeferenced data describing neighborhood quality. We find no evidence that having a migrant background is directly associated with higher rent. Migrants may nevertheless face higher rents by settling in neighborhoods populated by a high share of foreigners, which we find has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the rent.