Ali Nazemi

Integrating Supply Uncertainties from Stochastic Modeling into Integrated Water Resource Management: Case Study of the Saskatchewan River Basin

AbstractA warming climate and land management intensification have altered water supply characteristics in many regions of the world. Incorporation of water supply uncertainties into long-term water resources planning and management is, therefore, significant from both a scientific and societal perspective. This study proposes a set of analyses for integrated water resources management under changing water supply and demand expansion based on a newly developed methodology for vulnerability assessment. The basin of interest for the proposed analysis is the interprovincial Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Canada, which supports a wide range of water demands, from municipal and industrial use to irrigated agriculture and hydropower. Proposals for an increase in irrigated area are used as a context for exploring the joint effects of current and future water supply uncertainty and increasing irrigation demand conditions on the water resources system. Changing water supply conditions are represented by pert...

Forms and drivers of annual streamflow variability in the headwaters of Canadian Prairies during the 20th century

Headwater streamflows in the Rocky Mountain foothills are the key to water availability in the Canadian Prairies. Headwater characteristics, however, have been and continue to be subject to major variability and change. Here, we identify various forms of change in the annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak and attempt to distinguish between the effects of multiple drivers using a generalized regression scheme. Our investigation shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the main driver of significant monotonic trends and shifts in the central tendency of annual mean streamflow in major headwaters. In parallel, the cumulative effects of non-PDO climatic drivers and human-induced land use and land management are the main causes of significant variations in the timing of the annual peak. Additional analyses show that time sequences with significant trends in annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak coincide with those that show significant trends in the PDO or non-PDO component of the air temperature, respectively. The natural streamflow characteristics are substantially perturbed by anthropogenic river flow regulation, depending on the form of change and/or the level of regulation. Evidence suggests that the general tendency of human regulation is to alleviate the severity of above- and below-average streamflow conditions; however, it may also intensify the variability in natural streamflow characteristics during drier years and/or those with earlier annual peak timing. These are circumstances to which the regional water resource system is vulnerable. Our findings are important for the provision of effective regional water resource management in the Canadian Prairies and contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic drivers in coupled human–water systems.

The ecohydrological vulnerability of a large inland delta to changing regional streamflows and upstream irrigation expansion

Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, National Hydrology Research Centre, 11 Innovation Boulevard., Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3H5, Canada Department of Civil and Geological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, 57 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A9, Canada Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Boulevard West, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Kirk Hall, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5C8, Canada Toxicology Centre, University of Saskatchewan, 44 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5B3, Canada Correspondence Elmira Hassanzadeh, Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, National Hydrology Research Centre, 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5 Canada. Email: elmira.hassanzadeh@usask.ca