Alison Potts

Introduction and sustained high coverage of the HPV bivalent vaccine leads to a reduction in prevalence of HPV 16/18 and closely related HPV types

Background:In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme began in Scotland for 12–13 year old females with a three-year catch-up campaign for those under the age of 18. Since 2008, three-dose uptake of bivalent vaccine in the routine cohort aged 12–13 has exceeded 90% annually, while in the catch-up cohort overall uptake is 66%.Methods:To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation, a programme of national surveillance was established (pre and post introduction) which included yearly sampling and HPV genotyping of women attending for cervical screening at age 20. By linking individual vaccination, screening and HPV testing records, we aim to determine the impact of the immunisation programme on circulating type-specific HPV infection particularly for four outcomes: (i) the vaccine types HPV 16 or 18 (ii) types considered to be associated with cross-protection: HPV 31, 33 or 45; (iii) all other high-risk types and (iv) any HPV.Results:From a total of 4679 samples tested, we demonstrate that three doses (n=1100) of bivalent vaccine are associated with a significant reduction in prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 from 29.8% (95% confidence interval 28.3, 31.3%) to 13.6% (95% confidence interval 11.7, 15.8%). The data also suggest cross-protection against HPV 31, 33 and 45. HPV 51 and 56 emerged as the most prevalent (10.5% and 9.6%, respectively) non-vaccine high-risk types in those vaccinated, but at lower rates than HPV 16 (25.9%) in those unvaccinated.Conclusions:This data demonstrate the positive impact of bivalent vaccination on the prevalence of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 in the target population and is encouraging for countries which have achieved high-vaccine uptake.

Reduction of low- and high-grade cervical abnormalities associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine in Scotland

Background:In Scotland, a national HPV immunisation programme began in 2008 for 12- to 13-year olds, with a catch-up campaign from 2008 to 2011 for those under the age of 18. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation on cervical disease at the population level, a programme of national surveillance was established.Methods:We analysed colposcopy data from a cohort of women born between 1988 and 1992 who entered the Scottish Cervical Screening Programme (SCSP) and were aged 20–21 in 2008–2012.Results:By linking datasets from the SCSP and colposcopy services, we observed a significant reduction in diagnoses of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1 (CIN 1; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87; P=0.0008), CIN 2 (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.63; P<0.0001) and CIN 3 (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58; P<0.0001) for women who received three doses of vaccine compared with unvaccinated women.Conclusions:To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to show a reduction of low- and high-grade CIN associated with high uptake of the HPV bivalent vaccine at the population level. These data are very encouraging for countries that have achieved high HPV vaccine uptake.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for adults and children in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 end-of-season results

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season’s adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0–61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6–64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1–68.6) against influenza B. In 2–17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6–94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: −8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17.

Achieving high and equitable coverage of adolescent HPV vaccine in Scotland

Background and methods The national immunisation records of over 220 000 girls offered vaccine in the routine or catch-up programme of the Human papillomavirus (HPV) programme in Scotland were analysed. Descriptive statistics and multilevel modelling were used to determine individual and organisational factors associated with uptake. Age, school year, school denomination, deprivation and, for school-leavers, mode of delivery were explored. Additional aggregate data were used to examine the effect of late uptake of missed doses in the routine vaccination programme. Results School-based delivery initially achieved over 80% uptake of complete courses in routine and catch-up age groups. Within this context of generally high coverage, there was an association between individual level deprivation and lower uptake, and a decline in in-year course completion over time. However, later uptake of missed doses in the following year substantially decreased these effects. There was no influence on uptake of the type of school (non-denominational/denominational). Vaccination of school-leavers in the catch-up campaign had lower coverage, with 50% starting and 30% completing the course in-year. There was no clear advantage of vaccination through general practice or through Board-run clinics in reaching this group. Conclusions School-based vaccination can achieve high and equitable uptake of a multidose vaccine in a routine immunisation programme. Sustained high coverage with HPV vaccine across Scotland provides a stable platform for planning future strategies for cervical screening and understanding the impact of the vaccination at a population level.

HPV type-specific prevalence using a urine assay in unvaccinated male and female 11- to 18-year olds in Scotland

Background:We conducted a baseline prevalence survey of unvaccinated 11- to 18-year olds to inform effectiveness studies for the new human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme in Scotland.Methods:Participants were recruited from schools and colleges and invited to provide demographic data and an anonymous urine sample for type-specific HPV testing.Results:Among females aged 11–14 years, the weighted prevalence was 1.1% overall; 0.9% for high-risk types and no infections were associated with types 16 and 18. Among 15- to 18-year old females, the weighted prevalence was 15.2% overall; 12.6% for high-risk types and 6.5% for types 16 and 18. Among females aged 16–18 years, infection was more frequently associated with attending college and rural schools, and showed a trend towards increasing prevalence with increasing social deprivation (P=0.045). Among males aged 11–14 years, the weighted prevalence was 1.4% overall; 1.0% for high-risk types and 0.7% for types 16 and 18. Among 15- to 18-year old males, the weighted prevalence was 3.9% overall; 2.4% for high-risk types and 0.7% for types 16 and 18.Conclusions:Human Papillomavirus prevalence is low among 11- to 14-year olds, which includes the age group targeted for routine vaccination. The prevalence in males and correlation with deprivation require further investigation.

Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact

BackgroundEstimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20–21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs.MethodsResidual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20–21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression.ResultsThe prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20–21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66.ConclusionsUnderstanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening programme. Differences in results with different specimen types must be taken into account when monitoring the impact of vaccination programmes.

High uptake of HPV immunisation in Scotland--perspectives on maximising uptake.

In September 2008, Scotland introduced a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme with bivalent HPV vaccine, to prevent cervical cancer. This school-based programme routinely vaccinates girls aged between 12 and 13 years. A catch-up campaign, running over three years, also began at this time, offering vaccination to all girls aged 13 years to under 18 years old. The HPV immunisation campaign presented challenges due to this vaccine being targeted to girls in school and older girls who had left school. Following a long and comprehensive planning process, this campaign was successfully implemented across Scotland, delivering high vaccine uptake of 91.4% for three doses of vaccine in the first year (September 2008 to August 2009) for the routine cohort and 90.1% in the second year (September 2009 to August 2010) for the routine cohort. We describe the planning process, challenges and implementation strategies employed to achieve this high uptake.

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17

Introduction The United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case–control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18–64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2–17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

Measles in Scotland, 2013

In 2013, Wales and England experienced large outbreaks of measles, a disease that has been targeted by the World Health Organisation for European elimination by 2015. Unfortunately, measles-mumps-rubella vaccine uptake declined to less than 80% in Wales and England after the Wakefield publicity and this resulted in increased population susceptibility to measles. In Scotland, measles-mumps-rubella vaccine uptake dropped to 87% in 2003. Scottish public health efforts in response to this decline aimed to maximise uptake of MMR1 by two years; ensure at least 95% uptake of one dose of measles-mumps-rubella before starting school at age five; and maximise uptake of the second dose of measles-mumps-rubella by age six. Although Scotland has not had any large outbreaks reported to date, transmission of measles from healthcare workers to patients has occurred and reiterates the importance of all healthcare workers accurately knowing their immune status and, when needed, to be fully immunised.

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.