Alison Smith-Palmer

Towards tuberculosis elimination: an action framework for low-incidence countries

This paper describes an action framework for countries with low tuberculosis (TB) incidence (<100 TB cases per million population) that are striving for TB elimination. The framework sets out priority interventions required for these countries to progress first towards “pre-elimination” (<10 cases per million) and eventually the elimination of TB as a public health problem (less than one case per million). TB epidemiology in most low-incidence countries is characterised by a low rate of transmission in the general population, occasional outbreaks, a majority of TB cases generated from progression of latent TB infection (LTBI) rather than local transmission, concentration to certain vulnerable and hard-to-reach risk groups, and challenges posed by cross-border migration. Common health system challenges are that political commitment, funding, clinical expertise and general awareness of TB diminishes as TB incidence falls. The framework presents a tailored response to these challenges, grouped into eight priority action areas: 1) ensure political commitment, funding and stewardship for planning and essential services; 2) address the most vulnerable and hard-to-reach groups; 3) address special needs of migrants and cross-border issues; 4) undertake screening for active TB and LTBI in TB contacts and selected high-risk groups, and provide appropriate treatment; 5) optimise the prevention and care of drug-resistant TB; 6) ensure continued surveillance, programme monitoring and evaluation and case-based data management; 7) invest in research and new tools; and 8) support global TB prevention, care and control. The overall approach needs to be multisectorial, focusing on equitable access to high-quality diagnosis and care, and on addressing the social determinants of TB. Because of increasing globalisation and population mobility, the response needs to have both national and global dimensions. Action framework for countries with low tuberculosis incidence: a coherent approach for eliminating tuberculosis http://ow.ly/H03ZZ

Insidious risk of severe mycobacterium chimaera infection in cardiac surgery patients

Background. An urgent UK investigation was launched to assess risk of invasive Mycobacterium chimaera infection in cardiothoracic surgery and a possible association with cardiopulmonary bypass heater-cooler units following alerts in Switzerland and The Netherlands. Methods. Parallel investigations were pursued: (1) identification of cardiopulmonary bypass–associated M. chimaera infection through national laboratory and hospital admissions data linkage; (2) cohort study to assess patient risk; (3) microbiological and aerobiological investigations of heater-coolers in situ and under controlled laboratory conditions; and (4) whole-genome sequencing of clinical and environmental isolates. Results. Eighteen probable cases of cardiopulmonary bypass–associated M. chimaera infection were identified; all except one occurred in adults. Patients had undergone valve replacement in 11 hospitals between 2007 and 2015, a median of 19 months prior to onset (range, 3 months to 5 years). Risk to patients increased after 2010 from <0.2 to 1.65 per 10000 person-years in 2013, a 9-fold rise for infections within 2 years of surgery (rate ratio, 9.08 [95% CI, 1.81–87.76]). Endocarditis was the most common presentation (n = 11). To date, 9 patients have died. Investigations identified aerosol release through breaches in heater-cooler tanks. Mycobacterium chimaera and other pathogens were recovered from water and air samples. Phylogenetic analysis found close clustering of strains from probable cases. Conclusions. We identified low but escalating risk of severe M. chimaera infection associated with heater-coolers with cases in a quarter of cardiothoracic centers. Our investigations strengthen etiological evidence for the role of heater-coolers in transmission and raise the possibility of an ongoing, international point-source outbreak. Active management of heater-coolers and heightened clinical awareness are imperative given the consequences of infection.

An international invasive meningococcal disease outbreak due to a novel and rapidly expanding serogroup W strain, Scotland and Sweden, July to August 2015.

The 23rd World Scout Jamboree in 2015 took place in Japan and included over 33,000 scouts from 162 countries. Within nine days of the meeting ending, six cases of laboratory-confirmed invasive serogroup W meningococcal disease occurred among scouts and their close contacts in Scotland and Sweden. The isolates responsible were identical to one-another by routine typing and, where known (4 isolates), belonged to the ST-11 clonal complex (cc11) which is associated with large outbreaks and high case fatality rates. Recent studies have demonstrated the need for high-resolution genomic typing schemes to assign serogroup W cc11 isolates to several distinct strains circulating globally over the past two decades. Here we used such schemes to confirm that the Jamboree-associated cases constituted a genuine outbreak and that this was due to a novel and rapidly expanding strain descended from the strain that has recently expanded in South America and the United Kingdom. We also identify the genetic differences that define the novel strain including four point mutations and three putative recombination events involving the horizontal exchange of 17, six and two genes, respectively. Noteworthy outcomes of these changes were antigenic shifts and the disruption of a transcriptional regulator.

Human campylobacteriosis in Scotland: seasonality, regional trends and bursts of infection

Fourier time-series models were constructed to study regional and national seasonality of human campylobacteriosis in Scotland between 1997 and 2001. Strong seasonality was demonstrated with an annual peak of reported cases in late June to early July. The prominence of this peak varied between regions, which was exemplified for the two major population centres: Lothian, with mixed urban/rural population, had a more prominent peak than Greater Glasgow, which has a predominantly urban population. No significant trend of annual cases of campylobacteriosis was found nationally and Fourier models successfully predicted the seasonal pattern of national and regional cases in 2002. During the period studied, the Fourier model identified >20 bursts of infection (potential outbreaks). Multi-regional bursts were also identified in the summers of 1998 and 2000 - the latter comprising the vast majority of the regions in Scotland, which could suggest a national outbreak.

Elucidating the Aetiology of Human Campylobacter coli Infections

There has been little research on the determinants of Campylobacter coli infection, despite its contributing up to 10% of human Campylobacter infections. A case-control and two case-case study methods explored the aetiology of C. coli over a one year period across Scotland. The case-control multivariate model found an increased risk of C. coli infection in people older than 19 years (O.R. = 3.352), and during the summer months (O.R. = 2.596), while residing in an urban area decreased the risk (O.R. = 0.546). The first case-case study compared C. coli and C. jejuni cases and also showed a higher risk of C. coli during the summer (O.R. = 1.313) and in people older than 19 years (O.R. = 0.791). Living in an urban area was associated with a reduced risk of infection (O.R. = 0.769). Multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) indicated that sheep and chicken C. coli sequence types (STs) were most frequently found in humans whilst those from cattle and pigs were rarer. MLST diversity was high in isolates from pigs and chicken, intermediate in human isolates, and low in ruminant isolates. The second case-case study used MLST data to ascribe putative sources of infection to the cases. The putative source for 40% of cases was chicken, with 60% acquired from other sources (ruminants 54% and pigs 6%). The case-case analysis also showed that female gender was a risk factor (O.R. = 1.940), which may be explained by females being more likely to prepare poultry in the home. These findings indicate differences between the aetiology of C. coli and C. jejuni infections: this should be taken into account by public health professionals when developing strategies to reduce the burden of human campylobacteriosis.

Geographic determinants of reported human Campylobacter infections in Scotland

BackgroundCampylobacteriosis is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in most developed countries. People are exposed to infection from contaminated food and environmental sources. However, the translation of these exposures into infection in the human population remains incompletely understood. This relationship is further complicated by differences in the presentation of cases, their investigation, identification, and reporting; thus, the actual differences in risk must be considered alongside the artefactual differences.MethodsData on 33,967 confirmed Campylobacter infections in mainland Scotland between 2000 and 2006 (inclusive) that were spatially referenced to the postcode sector level were analysed. Risk factors including the Carstairs index of social deprivation, the easting and northing of the centroid of the postcode sector, measures of livestock density by species and population density were tested in univariate screening using a non-spatial generalised linear model. The NHS Health Board of the case was included as a random effect in this final model. Subsequently, a spatial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) was constructed and age-stratified sensitivity analysis was conducted on this model.ResultsThe spatial GLMM included the protective effects of the Carstairs index (relative risk (RR) = 0.965, 95% Confidence intervals (CIs) = 0.959, 0.971) and population density (RR = 0.945, 95% CIs = 0.916, 0.974. Following stratification by age group, population density had a significant protective effect (RR = 0.745, 95% CIs = 0.700, 0.792) for those under 15 but not for those aged 15 and older (RR = 0.982, 95% CIs = 0.951, 1.014). Once these predictors have been taken into account three NHS Health Boards remain at significantly greater risk (Grampian, Highland and Tayside) and two at significantly lower risk (Argyll and Ayrshire and Arran).ConclusionsThe less deprived and children living in rural areas are at the greatest risk of being reported as a case of Campylobacter infection. However, this analysis cannot differentiate between actual risk and heterogeneities in individual reporting behaviour; nevertheless this paper has demonstrated that it is possible to explain the pattern of reported Campylobacter infections using both social and environmental predictors.

Using sequence data to identify alternative routes and risk of infection: a case-study of campylobacter in Scotland

BackgroundGenetic typing data are a potentially powerful resource for determining how infection is acquired. In this paper MLST typing was used to distinguish the routes and risks of infection of humans with Campylobacter jejuni from poultry and ruminant sourcesMethodsC. jejuni samples from animal and environmental sources and from reported human cases confirmed between June 2005 and September 2006 were typed using MLST. The STRUCTURE software was used to assign the specific sequence types of the sporadic human cases to a particular source. We then used mixed case-case logistic regression analysis to compare the risk factors for being infected with C. jejuni from different sources.ResultsA total of 1,599 (46.3%) cases were assigned to poultry, 1,070 (31.0%) to ruminant and 67 (1.9%) to wild bird sources; the remaining 715 (20.7%) did not have a source that could be assigned with a probability of greater than 0.95. Compared to ruminant sources, cases attributed to poultry sources were typically among adults (odds ratio (OR) = 1.497, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) = 1.211, 1.852), not among males (OR = 0.834, 95% CIs = 0.712, 0.977), in areas with population density of greater than 500 people/km2 (OR = 1.213, 95% CIs = 1.030, 1.431), reported in the winter (OR = 1.272, 95% CIs = 1.067, 1.517) and had undertaken recent overseas travel (OR = 1.618, 95% CIs = 1.056, 2.481). The poultry assigned strains had a similar epidemiology to the unassigned strains, with the exception of a significantly higher likelihood of reporting overseas travel in unassigned strains.ConclusionsRather than estimate relative risks for acquiring infection, our analyses show that individuals acquire C. jejuni infection from different sources have different associated risk factors. By enhancing our ability to identify at-risk groups and the times at which these groups are likely to be at risk, this work allows public health messages to be targeted more effectively. The rapidly increasing capacity to conduct genetic typing of pathogens makes such traced epidemiological analysis more accessible and has the potential to substantially enhance epidemiological risk factor studies.

Identifying the seasonal origins of human campylobacteriosis

Human campylobacteriosis exhibits a distinctive seasonality in temperate regions. This paper aims to identify the origins of this seasonality. Clinical isolates [typed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)] and epidemiological data were collected from Scotland. Young rural children were found to have an increased burden of disease in the late spring due to strains of non-chicken origin (e.g. ruminant and wild bird strains from environmental sources). In contrast the adult population had an extended summer peak associated with chicken strains. Travel abroad and UK mainland travel were associated with up to 17% and 18% of cases, respectively. International strains were associated with chicken, had a higher diversity than indigenous strains and a different spectrum of MLST types representative of these countries. Integrating empirical epidemiology and molecular subtyping can successfully elucidate the seasonal components of human campylobacteriosis. The findings will enable public health officials to focus strategies to reduce the disease burden.

Foot and mouth epidemic reduces cases of human cryptosporidiosis in Scotland.

In Scotland, rates of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans peak during the spring, a peak that is coincident with the peak in rates of infection in farm animals (during lambing and calving time). Here we show that, during the outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in 2001, there was a significant reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection in southern Scotland, where FMD was present, whereas, in the rest of Scotland, there was a reduction in cases that was not significant. We associate the reduction in human cases of cryptosporidiosis infection with the reduction in the number of young farm animals, together with restrictions on movement of both farm animals and humans, during the outbreak of FMD in 2001. We further show that, during 2002, there was recovery in the rate of cryptosporidiosis infection in humans throughout Scotland, particularly in the FMD-infected area, but that rates of infection remained lower, though not significantly, than pre-2001 levels.

Outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis capsular group W among scouts returning from the World Scout Jamboree, Japan, 2015

The 23rd World Scout Jamboree was held in Japan from 28 July to 8 August 2015 and was attended by over 33,000 scouts from 162 countries. An outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease capsular group W was investigated among participants, with four confirmed cases identified in Scotland, who were all associated with one particular scout unit, and two confirmed cases in Sweden; molecular testing showed the same strain to be responsible for illness in both countries. The report describes the public health action taken to prevent further cases and the different decisions reached with respect to how wide to extend the offer of chemoprophylaxis in the two countries; in Scotland, chemoprophylaxis was offered to the unit of 40 participants to which the four cases belonged and to other close contacts of cases, while in Sweden chemoprophylaxis was offered to all those returning from the Jamboree. The report also describes the international collaboration and communication required to investigate and manage such multinational outbreaks in a timely manner.