Allen J. Naftilan

Low-Risk Acute Heart Failure Patients: External Validation of the Society of Chest Pain Center’s Recommendations

INTRODUCTION Risk-stratification in acute heart failure syndromes (AHFS) is problematic. A recent set of recommendations describes emergency department (ED) patients with AHFS who do not fulfill high-risk criteria and may be good candidates for observation unit (OU) management. The goal of this analysis was to report on the outcomes experienced by ED patients with AHFS who do not have any of these high-risk criteria. METHODS We performed a secondary analysis of the HEart failure and Audicor technology for Rapid Diagnosis and Initial Treatment (HEARD-IT) multinational study. HEARD-IT was a multicenter study designed to test the impact of acoustic cardiography on ED decision making in patients with possible AHFS. For the purposes of the current analysis we identified a subset of HEARD-IT patients who did not fulfill any high-risk criteria based on published data. The proportion of these patients who experienced an adverse outcome was determined. RESULTS The 201 subjects who fulfilled the inclusion criteria had a mean age of 64 years (SD: 13), 61% were male, 34% were Caucasian, and 55% were black. There were a total of 25 (12.4%) cardiac events, including 1 death due to AHFS. The majority of the cardiac events were 30-day readmissions related to AHFS (16/25, 64.0%). CONCLUSION AHFS patients at low-risk for subsequent morbidity and mortality based on recent consensus guidelines may be good candidates for early discharge after a brief period of observation in the OU or ED. Additional prospective research is needed to determine the impact of implementation of these criteria in ED patients with AHFS.

Low Numeracy Is Associated With Increased Odds of 30-Day Emergency Department or Hospital Recidivism for Patients With Acute Heart Failure

Background— More than 25% of Medicare patients hospitalized for heart failure are readmitted within 30 days. The contributions of numeracy and health literacy to recidivism for patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not known. Methods and Results— A cohort of patients with acute heart failure who presented to 4 emergency departments between January 2008 and September 2011. Research assistants administered subjective measures of numeracy and health literacy; 30-day follow-up was performed by phone interview. Recidivism was defined as any unplanned return to the emergency department or hospital within 30 days of the index emergency department visit for AHF. Multivariable logistic regression adjusting for patient age, sex, race, insurance status, hospital site, days eligible for recidivism, chronic kidney disease, abnormal hemoglobin, and low ejection fraction evaluated the relation between numeracy and health literacy with 30-day recidivism. Of the 709 patients included in the analysis, 390 (55%) had low numeracy skills and 258 (37%) had low literacy skills. Low numeracy was associated with increased odds of recidivism within 30 days (adjusted odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.98; P=0.048). For low health literacy, adjusted odds ratio of recidivism was 1.17 (95% confidence interval, 0.83–1.65; P=0.37). Conclusions— Low numeracy was associated with greater odds of 30-day recidivism. Further investigation is warranted to determine whether addressing numeracy and health literacy may reduce 30-day recidivism for patients with acute heart failure.

Galectin 3 complements BNP in risk stratification in acute heart failure

Background: Galectin 3 (G3) is a mediator of fibrosis and remodeling in heart failure. Methods: Patients diagnosed with and treated for Acute Heart Failure Syndromes were prospectively enrolled in the Decision Making in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure multicenter trial. Results: Patients with a higher G3 had a history of renal disease, a lower heart rate and acute kidney injury. They also tended to have a history of HF and 30-day adverse events compared with B-type natriuretic peptide. Conclusion: In Acute Heart Failure Syndromes, G3 levels do not provide prognostic value, but when used complementary to B-type natriuretic peptide, G3 is associated with renal dysfunction and may predict 30-day events.

Whole exome sequencing identifies a causal RBM20 mutation in a large pedigree with familial dilated cardiomyopathy.

Background—Whole exome sequencing is a powerful technique for Mendelian disease gene discovery. However, variant prioritization remains a challenge. We applied whole exome sequencing to identify the causal variant in a large family with familial dilated cardiomyopathy of unknown pathogenesis. Methods and Results—A large family with autosomal dominant, familial dilated cardiomyopathy was identified. Exome capture and sequencing were performed in 3 remotely related, affected subjects predicted to share <0.1% of their genomes by descent. Shared variants were filtered for rarity, evolutionary conservation, and predicted functional significance, and remaining variants were filtered against 71 locally generated exomes. Variants were also prioritized using the Variant Annotation Analysis and Search Tool. Final candidates were validated by Sanger sequencing and tested for segregation. There were 664 shared heterozygous nonsense, missense, or splice site variants, of which 26 were rare (minor allele frequency ⩽0.001 or not reported) in 2 public databases. Filtering against internal exomes reduced the number of candidates to 2, and of these, a single variant (c.1907 G>A) in RBM20, segregated with disease status and was absent in unaffected internal reference exomes. Bioinformatic prioritization with Variant Annotation Analysis and Search Tool supported this result. Conclusions—Whole exome sequencing of remotely related dilated cardiomyopathy subjects from a large, multiplex family, followed by systematic filtering, identified a causal RBM20 mutation without the need for linkage analysis.

Risk stratification in acute heart failure: rationale and design of the STRATIFY and DECIDE studies.

BACKGROUND A critical challenge for physicians facing patients presenting with signs and symptoms of acute heart failure (AHF) is how and where to best manage them. Currently, most patients evaluated for AHF are admitted to the hospital, yet not all warrant inpatient care. Up to 50% of admissions could be potentially avoided and many admitted patients could be discharged after a short period of observation and treatment. Methods for identifying patients that can be sent home early are lacking. Improving the physicians ability to identify and safely manage low-risk patients is essential to avoiding unnecessary use of hospital beds. METHODS Two studies (STRATIFY and DECIDE) have been funded by the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute with the goal of developing prediction rules to facilitate early decision making in AHF. Using prospectively gathered evaluation and treatment data from the acute setting (STRATIFY) and early inpatient stay (DECIDE), rules will be generated to predict risk for death and serious complications. Subsequent studies will be designed to test the external validity, utility, generalizability and cost-effectiveness of these prediction rules in different acute care environments representing racially and socioeconomically diverse patient populations. RESULTS A major innovation is prediction of 5-day as well as 30-day outcomes, overcoming the limitation that 30-day outcomes are highly dependent on unpredictable, post-visit patient and provider behavior. A novel aspect of the proposed project is the use of a comprehensive cardiology review to correctly assign post-treatment outcomes to the acute presentation. CONCLUSIONS Finally, a rigorous analysis plan has been developed to construct the prediction rules that will maximally extract both the statistical and clinical properties of every data element. Upon completion of this study we will subsequently externally test the prediction rules in a heterogeneous patient cohort.

The Rationale for an Acute Heart Failure Syndromes Clinical Trials Network

BACKGROUND Clinical trials involving novel therapies treating acute heart failure syndromes (AHFS) have shown limited success with regard to both efficacy and safety. As a direct result, outcomes have changed little over time and AHFS remains a disease process associated with largely no change in hospitalization rates (80%), hospital length of stay (median 4.5 days), and in-hospital (4-7%) and 60-day mortality (10%). Despite extensive emergency department (ED) involvement during the initial phase of AHFS management, clinical trials have enrolled patients after the ED phase of management, up to 48 hours after initial therapy, long after many patients have experienced significant beneficial effects of standard therapy. As standard therapy has provided symptomatic improvement in up to 70% of patients in these trials, it is not surprising that investigational agents started after 24 to 48 hours of standard therapy have shown limited clinical efficacy when compared with standard therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS The ability to screen, enroll, and randomize in the emergency setting is fundamental. The unique environment, the ethical complexities of enrollment in emergency-based research, and the need for rapid and standardized study-compliant care represent key challenges to active recruitment in AHFS studies. Specifically, the ability to identify and enroll a large cohort of AHFS patients early (<6 hours) in their presentation has been cited as the primary barrier to the appropriate design of clinical trials that includes this early window. CONCLUSIONS In response, we have created a network of dedicated academic physicians with experience in clinical trials and acute management of heart failure who together can surmount this barrier and provide a framework for conducting early trials in AHFS.

Identification of Emergency Department Patients With Acute Heart Failure at Low Risk for 30-Day Adverse Events : The STRATIFY Decision Tool

OBJECTIVES No prospectively derived or validated decision tools identify emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) at low risk for 30-day adverse events who are thus potential candidates for safe ED discharge. This study sought to accomplish that goal. BACKGROUND The nearly 1 million annual ED visits for AHF are associated with high proportions of admissions and consume significant resources. METHODS We prospectively enrolled 1,033 patients diagnosed with AHF in the ED from 4 hospitals between July 20, 2007, and February 4, 2011. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy, defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of ED evaluation (acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularization, emergent dialysis, intubation, mechanical cardiac support, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and death). RESULTS Of 1,033 patients enrolled, 126 (12%) experienced at least one 30-day adverse event. The decision tool had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.63 to 0.74). Elevated troponin (p < 0.001) and renal function (p = 0.01) were significant predictors of adverse events in our multivariable model, whereas B-type natriuretic peptide (p = 0.09), tachypnea (p = 0.09), and patients undergoing dialysis (p = 0.07) trended toward significance. At risk thresholds of 1%, 3%, and 5%, we found 0%, 1.4%, and 13.0% patients were at low risk, with negative predictive values of 100%, 96%, and 93%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The STRATIFY decision tool identifies ED patients with AHF who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and may be candidates for safe ED discharge. After external testing, and perhaps when used as part of a shared decision-making strategy, it may significantly affect disposition strategies. (Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED [STRATIFY]; NCT00508638).

Soluble ST2 as a Diagnostic and Prognostic Marker for Acute Heart Failure Syndromes.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association of sST2 with diagnostic and prognostic outcomes and assessed whether it aids B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) in diagnosing and predicting outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected AHFS. METHODS: We recruited patients who presented to the ED of 3 tertiary hospitals with signs or symptoms of AHFS and met modified Framingham criteria for AHFS. Outcome measures were a final diagnosis of AHFS and 5-and 30-day adverse events. RESULTS: In the 295 subjects with sST2 available, the median sST2 was 0.20 ng/ml (IQR=0.10, 0.34). Although unadjusted analyses indicated sST2 was significantly associated with the diagnosis of AHFS (p=0.02), this was not so in the adjusted analysis (p=0.33). Moderately low diagnostic utility was noted with an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI=0.56, 0.69). Similar sST2 test characteristics were seen when BNP was restricted between 100 and 500 pg/ml. While sST2 was associated with AHFS readmission at 30-days (p=0.04), in the adjusted analyses it was not associated with adverse events. CONCLUSION: In patients with signs or symptoms of AHFS, unadjusted analyses indicated that sST2 was significantly associated with the diagnosis of AHFS and with 30-day AHFS recidivism. However, the associations did not carry over to adjusted analyses, and sST2 did not add significant information with regard to explaining the diagnostic and prognostic variability of BNP.

Benefits of ambulatory axillary intra-aortic balloon pump for circulatory support as bridge to heart transplant.

OBJECTIVE Axillary intra-aortic balloon pump therapy has been described as a bridge to transplant. Advantages over femoral intra-aortic balloon pump therapy include reduced incidence of infection and enhanced patient mobility. We identified the patients who would benefit most from this therapy while awaiting heart transplantation. METHODS We conducted a single-center, retrospective observational study to evaluate outcomes from axillary intra-aortic balloon pump therapy. These included hemodynamic parameters, duration of support, and success in bridging to transplant. We selected patients on the basis of history of sternotomy, elevated panel-reactive antibody, and small body habitus. Patients were made to ambulate aggressively beginning on postoperative day 1. RESULTS Between September 2007 and September 2010, 18 patients underwent axillary intra-aortic balloon pump therapy. All patients had the devices placed through the left axillary artery with a Hemashield side graft (Boston Scientific, Natick, Mass). Before axillary placement, patients underwent femoral placement to demonstrate hemodynamic benefit. Duration of support ranged from 5 to 63 days (median = 19 days). There was marked improvement in ambulatory potential and hemodynamic parameters, with minimal blood transfusion requirements. There were no device-related infections. Some 72% of the patients (13/18) were successfully bridged to transplantation. CONCLUSIONS Axillary intra-aortic balloon pump therapy provides excellent support for selected patients as a bridge to transplant. The majority of the patients were successfully bridged to transplant and discharged. Although this therapy has been described in previous studies, this is the largest series to incorporate a regimen of aggressive ambulation with daily measurements of distances walked.

A Comparison of Criterion Standard Methods to Diagnose Acute Heart Failure

The authors sought to compare and contrast the clinical criterion standards currently used in a cohort of emergency department (ED) patients to diagnose acute heart failure syndromes (AHFS). In a prospective observational study of patients with signs and symptoms of AHFS, 3 criterion standards were examined: (1) the treating ED physicians diagnosis; (2) the hospital discharge diagnosis; and (3) a diagnosis based on medical record review by a panel of cardiologists. Using Cohens kappa (κ) coefficient, the authors assessed agreement and then compared the different standards by repeatedly setting one as the criterion standard and the other two as index tests. A total of 483 patients were enrolled. Across all criterion standards, patients with AHFS were more likely to have a history of AHFS, congestion on physical examination and chest radiography, and elevated natriuretic peptide levels than those without AHFS. The standards agreed well (cardiology review vs hospital discharge diagnosis, κ=0.74; cardiology review vs ED diagnosis, κ=0.66; ED diagnosis vs hospital discharge diagnosis κ=0.59). Each method had similar sensitivity but differing specificities. Different criterion standards identify different patients from among those being evaluated for AHFS. Researchers should consider this when choosing between the various criterion standard approaches when evaluating new index tests.